Week 9 in the NFL saw public betting trends pay off in a big way, with heavily-backed teams like the Dolphins and Rams delivering big wins for the public. As we move past the halfway mark of the season, we dive into which teams covered and how sportsbooks were affected by bettors’ popular choices. From thrilling finishes to last-minute covers, let’s review the biggest public sides and their outcomes in Week 9.
Dolphins Give The Sharps An Early Win
We are already over halfway through the NFL season, if you can believe that. Week 9 is now in the books, outside of tonight’s game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs. With that, we can take a look back and see how the biggest public sides did over the weekend. A public bet is a side that is receiving 51% or more of the total tickets. This does not include the money or sportsbook liability.
The largest public side of the weekend was the Buffalo Bills at home, laying -6 against the visiting Miami Dolphins. A whopping 86% of spread tickets written for the game were on the Bills.
This was a back and forth game, a roller coaster of emotions for bettors. The Dolphins were up 10-6 at halftime, but then both teams started to light the jet engines up. The Bills took a 27-20 lead with six minutes left, but the Dolphins managed to tie it up with just a minute and 38 seconds on the clock. Josh Allen drove down the field and got his team in position to kick a game winning field goal, and Tyler Bass delivered on a 61-yarder. This cashed Miami +6, and sent the public packing.
The Public Strikes Back With Jayden Daniels, Commanders
One of the largest public sides every weekend now is the Washington Commanders, due to their rookie QB Jayden Daniels and how much they are winning. I honestly thought this would be the most lopsided game of the weekend, but it slots in at second place, with the Commanders getting 85% of the total spread tickets in the game against the New York Giants.
This was not shocking at all, as no one wants to bet on Daniel Jones at this point. I will say, however, that the Giants had every chance to cover in this game and very nearly did. Washington was up 21-7 at halftime, but just like last weekend against the Chicago Bears, they did almost nothing in the second half of the game. New York outscored them 15-6 in the second half, as the Giants failed both of their two point conversions after touchdowns.
The game ended 27-22, and if they had actually made their conversions or even kicked extra points, they would have covered. The public squares were glad they didn’t, however. One of my favorite quotes from last week summed up the weekend perfectly for the books, from BetMGM’s Christian Cipollini: “Lions, Commanders and Bills are the most popular bets on Sunday. Many customers are including these teams in parlays. Any of these teams not covering would be good for the sportsbook but a loss would be ideal.”
Two out of three of those teams covered, and all three of them won their games. It was just another public weekend.
Rams Continue the Public Run
Lastly, the Los Angeles Rams capped off a very public day in the NFL. 78% of bets were on them to cover -1.5 at BetMGM, as they took on the Seattle Seahawks.
The game went into overtime, and the Seahawks managed to get the ball first. It seemed like the sharps would finally get some relief, but it was not to be. They failed on a fourth down conversion attempt, and all the Rams had to do was kick a field goal. However, they ended up just going and scoring a touchdown to seal it for the public.
It wasn’t the best weekend for the sportsbooks, to put it lightly.
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