As Week 13 of the college football season approaches, several underdogs are poised to deliver value-packed upsets. With key situational advantages, shifting betting trends, and high-stakes matchups, these games present opportunities to back bold picks. Here are three upset moneyline plays worth considering.
Kansas (4-6) ML vs. #16 Colorado (8-2): +115, BetMGM
I know this isn’t really the biggest upset in the world, considering that Kansas is just a +2.5 underdog to Colorado, but it will be viewed as a major upset in the college football landscape nevertheless. The Buffs are ranked No. 16 in the country now after four straight wins, and everyone is riding high on that Coach Prime bandwagon. Travis Hunter is the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and all the momentum is on their side. The perfect time to fade them.
Kansas is 4-6 on the season, but they are coming off a win against a very overrated and lucky BYU team that was long overdue for a loss. The Jayhawks have won two in a row, and I think they have started to find their game as of late that made them a popular pick in the Big 12 before the season. This was a very good team in 2023, and despite some terrible early losses and disappointing performances, they seem to have found themselves.
This is just a perfect situational spot at home for Kansas, and a very bad spot for Colorado on a four game winning streak. Know that 81% of the early tickets and 65% of the early money is on the Buffs, and I expect that the overwhelming amount of late money is going to come in on the favorites at under a field goal. The books will be cheering for a Kansas win, and I think we get it.
Rock Chalk.
Boston College (5-5) ML vs. North Carolina (6-4): +140, BetRivers
The Eagles started the season as one of the surprise teams in college football, taking down what at the time was considered a very good Florida State team and shocking the world. As we know now, the Seminoles are a dumpster fire, so the win wasn’t as impressive as we thought it was. Since the first few games of the year, things have not gone so well for Boston College. They are sitting at 5-5 through 10 games, and have lost four of their last five contests. They are coming off of a 10 point loss to SMU, as the Mustangs blitzed their defense and racked up 38 points.
North Carolina has seen the opposite happen. They started out in horrendous fashion with a 3-4 record, but have since rattled off three straight wins to make themselves bowl eligible. I love fading a team that is on a winning streak against a team that has been losing a lot, and this is the perfect spot to back Boston College at home.
Not only that, but the Eagles need another win to make themselves bowl eligible, so they are going to be pushing hard to secure themselves one more win so they make a bowl game. I really like their chances here.
Northwestern (4-6) ML at Michigan (5-5): +360, FanDuel
If you want a longer shot and a bigger upset pick, I really like the Wildcats in this game against the Wolverines on the spread line, and I think they are worth a sprinkle to just win the game outright as well. As improbable as it may seem that Northwestern could go into the big house and take down Michigan, this could be a prime opportunity for them to actually do so.
The Wildcats are not a good football team, with a 4-6 record and coming off a 31-7 beating from Ohio State last weekend. They have lost three of their last five games and generally people think they are terrible. The good news for them is that they are facing the worst Wolverines squad we have seen in a decade on Saturday.
Michigan is a shell of the team that won the National Championship last season. They are 5-5 and have looked terrible on many occasions this year, coming off of a 20-15 loss to Indiana. They have only won a single game over their last five, and yet, they are laying double-digits at home here against the Wildcats.
This game has a total of 36.5 at most sportsbooks right now, a very low number that tells us that these teams are projected to have a very tough time finding the endzone. In a game with such a low total, I find that variance between teams decreases significantly. All we need is one big play from the underdog and it could be curtains for a favorite that can’t score. A road dog with a low total is something I am always interested in backing, and I’ll love the +10.5 on the spread. I still think this price is well worth a sprinkle for NW to win as well.
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