As the college football regular season nears its conclusion, Week 14 presents plenty of opportunities for bettors to capitalize on key matchups and intriguing lines. With rivalry games and postseason stakes on the line, oddsmakers have set some enticing spreads that align with public perception — but also leave room for sharp bettors to find value. This week, we’re targeting three games where the betting market has created opportunities: Oklahoma State vs. Colorado, Northwestern vs. Illinois, and USC vs. Notre Dame. Let’s dive into why these matchups hold promise for underdog backers.
Oklahoma State (3-8) +17 at #25 Colorado (8-3): -115, BetRivers
Here we go again, fading the Colorado Buffs as is tradition every week in college football. This time we get to do it on Black Friday, and hopefully that is just what it is for Coach Prime and his team. As I have talked about a million times before, Colorado is a very public team and they get mounds of cash dropped on them every week to cover. Know that 72% of the cash is the Buffs here to cover this huge spread against a very disappointing 3-8 Oklahoma State team. The Cowboys have lost five straight games and have failed to cover in four straight.
Meanwhile, Colorado is coming off of a loss to Kansas, and everyone is expecting them to bounce back in a huge way in this game. They can surely win the game, but with how terrible their defense is, I find it very difficult to lay a large number with them ever. The Buffs are 219th in yards per play given up, and they have largely been shredded this season. The Jayhawks ripped them last weekend and exposed them a bit, and while the Cowboys are not a great team, they have the weapons to do some damage. OKST is 86th in yards per play on offense, which is quite good.
The books are obviously going to be cheering on the Cowboys, and I will be as well.
Northwestern (4-7) +7.5 vs. #23 Illinois (8-3): -110, Caesars
It seems like every week I keep getting burned by this Illinois team, who by almost every metric, is vastly overachieving this season. They continue to get very fortunate, winning a lot of their one score games, and I think eventually their luck is going to run out. Northwestern is an in-state rival, and has actually won three of their last five matchups, including a huge 45-43 victory last season as a +5.5 underdog in Champaign.
As of this writing, a whopping 84% of money is on Illinois to cover the spread, which is over a touchdown right now at most books. With that much money on them, it becomes almost a certainty that the sportsbooks will need the Wildcats to keep this one close and ideally win the game. I think they can keep it close and I wouldn’t be shocked if they won, either. Northwestern has a very good defense, ranked 90th nationally in yards per play given up, and I think at home they can limit the Illini attack.
It will all come down to if their offense can score enough to keep the game within a touchdown. They are horrendous offensively, ranking 238th in yards per play. Still, all that really matters is that the books will need them to cover, and because of that split difference, I think they have a good chance to do that.
USC (6-5) +7.5 vs. #5 Notre Dame (10-1): -109, BetRivers
The Fighting Irish need to win this game if they are going to make the College Football Playoff, as they can’t afford one mistake this late in the season with that loss to Northern Illinois still on their record. Notre Dame has won and covered in five straight games, crushing their opponents almost every game they play. Last week, they totally destroyed a ranked Army team 49-14 in a game that probably wasn’t even that close. USC has won three of their last five games and covered in those games they won. They have also been favorites in all of them, but now will be an underdog.
Right now, 86% of money is on the Irish to blow their opponent out again and cover this spread, which is over a touchdown on the road. The sportsbooks are going to be rooting for the Trojans to keep this game close, and I think they can do just that.
The Irish own one of the best offenses and defenses in the country, ranking 16th in yards per play on offense and 12th on defense. It isn’t going to be an easy challenge for USC to score on them or stop them, considering the Trojans rank 211th in YPP on defense. However, their offense will test this great Irish defense. USC is 11th in the nation in YPP offensively despite their poor record, and you can count on a Lincoln Riley coached team to have some tricks up their sleeve.
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