In NFL Week 9, the public is heavily backing teams like the Lions, Bills, and Commanders. But savvy bettors see opportunities in fading these popular picks, with sharp money favoring underdog plays on the Packers, Dolphins, and Giants. Let’s dive into why sharp bettors are choosing these matchups, with insights on betting splits, public sentiment and key player performances. Plus, find out why BetMGM has notable exposure on each of these games this weekend.
Packers (6-2) +3 vs. Lions (6-1)
I’ve talked about this bet several times this week on our podcast “The Daily Boost” and on the BetQL Network show “Send It In”, and if you haven’t checked those out, I highly recommend it. You’d know I got the Packers at +3.5 earlier in the week, and that number has disappeared in the market at this point. Getting the 3 isn’t bad, but certainly threatens a push. I actually think Green Bay will win the game outright, so you should still be safe.
The Lions are the most public team in the NFL every single week, and to their credit, they have covered for squares a decent amount this season. So, it isn’t shocking to see 68% of tickets and 69% of total cash be on them here in this game, especially at a shorter number with QB Jordan Love questionable for the Packers. I find it very interesting that despite 69% of the total cash going into Detroit, the line has come down from -4.5 to -2.5 at most places, with a few -3 floating around.
I also love fading Jared Goff when he has to play outdoors in any kind of conditions that aren’t perfect. It is well known and documented that Goff has not been as effective as a starter when he isn’t playing in a dome. It could very well be cold and windy in Green Bay this weekend, and that has typically been to the detriment of the high-flying Lions.
Dolphins (2-5) +6 at Bills (6-2)
Buffalo has won three straight games and are now sitting pretty on top of the AFC East at 6-2, virtually unopposed by the 3-6 Jets, 2-6 Patriots, and these 2-5 Miami Dolphins. The Bills are very likely going to win this division without much of a fuss, but I think this is a game where they really need to be careful. It very much feels like a trap game that the Bills are going to lose, and that is why I am taking the six points with the Dolphins in Buffalo.
Miami just got QB Tua Tagovailoa back, but they still lost last time out at home to the Arizona Cardinals. The public really couldn’t be much lower on them right now, and that reflects at the sportsbook, where dump trucks full of cash are being unloaded onto the Bills spread at -6.
According to BetMGM, 92% of the total spread cash in this game is on Buffalo. That is the most lopsided handle of the weekend, and represents some extreme liability for the sportsbook. Not only that, but the amount of moneyline parlays that will employ the Bills is going to be quite large. I think the Dolphins have a great chance to win this weekend, and I will gladly take the two field goals with them.
Giants (2-6) +4 vs. Commanders (6-2)
Was this bet ever really going to be a doubt for any of you out there that are reading every week? Hopefully by now, I have taught you to fish these out, and the New York Giants were possibly the most obvious play on the entire board for the weekend. They get the privilege of taking on the massive public bandwagon that is the Washington Commanders, and their much-loved rookie QB Jayden Daniels.
Daniels played last week against the Chicago Bears, and we all will remember that hail mary more than anything else in the game. However, I do think Daniels is playing through injury, as he really wasn’t that great last weekend. If you take away that 52-yard heave to the endzone, which was completed mainly out of luck with a sprinkle of Bears coaching incompetence, Daniels was very average. He completed only 54% of his passes for 270 yards and no touchdowns, for a 77.0 passer rating.
QB Daniel Jones is hated more than maybe any other signal-caller in football. Still, if you look at his career stats, he is a much better QB when he plays in the 12 pm slot of games. I don’t think he steps up when the spotlight is on him, like in primetime games, where he is awful. However, in these situations, he isn’t that bad.
In addition, 86% of the total cash is on Washington spread. This has all the potential of a let-down game for the Commanders.
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