As we dive into NFL Week 9, three teams are capturing major public backing: the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and Buffalo Bills. With insights from BetMGM’s betting splits, these games highlight where the public money is flowing—and which teams the sportsbooks will be hoping hold the line. From Detroit’s continued streak as a fan favorite to Washington’s “team of destiny” hype, let’s look at why bettors are flocking to these teams and whether following the crowd is the right play this week.
Lions (6-1) -2.5 at Packers (6-2)
I can pretty much just copy and paste this every single week in the first slot of this article, as the Detroit Lions are the public darling of the NFL. It is about as unsurprising as the Dodgers winning the World Series, and you can count on them to continue generating ticket after ticket as square bettors line up to bet on them. They are taking on their rival, the Green Bay Packers, this weekend on the road. QB Jordan Love is questionable for the Packers, which makes people love Detroit even more.
Our friend John Ewing, who works in data and PR at BetMGM, was kind enough to share the betting splits for this weekend in the NFL. These can be very helpful to see where the public is betting and where the money is going. This allows us to see what the sportsbook is rooting for, and can be a very important part of any handicap.
Right now, 68% of the tickets are on the Lions at this short number of -2.5, and 69% of the money is also on that side. I find it very curious that despite the majority of tickets and money being on the Lions, the line has moved from -4.5 to -2.5.
Commanders (6-2) -4 at Giants (2-6)
Washington is quickly becoming another public wagon that squares can’t wait to wager on every week. After last week’s miracle win against the Chicago Bears on a last second Hail Mary by Commanders’ rookie QB Jayden Daniels, you had better believe that tickets and money are pouring in on this team as a “team of destiny”, which is usually just hype. Now, they get to travel to New York to take on the 2-6 Giants that everyone hates. QB Daniel Jones is one of the worst signal-callers in the league in the public eye.
Once again, taking a look at the betting splits for this game, it is very lopsided action on Washington. A high 81% of the tickets and 86% of the money is on the Commanders to cover the -4 spread. Everyone and their brother is on Washington and thinks this is easy money.
I thought their first disappointing loss of the season would be last week against Chicago, and if not for a statistical improbability, it would have been. Maybe I was a week off.
Bills (6-2) -6 vs. Dolphins (2-5)
Miami got QB Tua Tagovailoa back last weekend, and they still lost the game, so now they will go back into the public dog house against the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo, meanwhile, is 6-2 and coming off of three straight wins. There was never really a doubt that the home team here would get a majority of the tickets, but I was a bit shocked by how massively lopsided the game actually is in terms of cash.
Looking at the betting splits, 87% of tickets written on the spread of this game are on the Bills. However, that still doesn’t match the amount of money at stake, sitting at a whopping 92% of the total cash on Buffalo. That is a huge handle on one side, and because of that, the sportsbooks are going to be massive Dolphins fans this weekend.
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