The NFL regular season has come to an end, and we now know who will be playing for Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans come February. It’s been a fantastic year for us here at BetQL, as the model has been tossing winner after winner to us so we can keep pumping up that bankroll. Subscribers have been really having fun, and I do not expect that to stop for the NFL Playoffs as we start our journey.
The model has gone 463-309-22 (60% win) on 3-Star and higher NFL bets of $100 in the last 365 days, which has generated a profit of $3,074 this year. Remember, that is just on NFL wagers. Imagine how much you are up taking every 3-star and higher bet across every sport the model covers. Hint: it is a considerable amount.
Many have asked who the model thinks will win the Super Bowl, just as they have with the CFP. I wanted to find out these answers as well, so I asked the engineering team to simulate the playoffs 10,000 times and give me the results. I have to say, they are very interesting, and I am going to share them with you here.
The first thing that stands out immediately is how likely the Detroit Lions are to win the whole thing. The model is giving them a whopping 22.3% chance to win the Super Bowl after simulating the playoffs 10,000 times. That may not seem like a lot, but that is actually very good when you consider all the teams and scenarios. It makes sense since they are the favorite at every book right now at around +300, but there isn’t any value at that number since it is equal to 25%.
Another bit of data that I found to be very interesting is how likely the Baltimore Ravens are to win the Super Bowl according to our projections. In fact, they are the most likely team in the AFC to win it, with a 18.4% chance to do so. This is a wager that is worth making at the books, as at +550 odds, we are getting some good value here. That assumes Baltimore has a 15.38% chance to win it, so we have them more likely than that to do so.
As always, I am always looking for the most value for my dollar when I am going to bet on futures. When you tie up money for more than a week, you want to find bets that are going to give you at least a good cash out offer at some point. Using this data, I have found a team that seems to have a lot of value right now relative to their current line compared to our projections.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 6.7% chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the model. While that is a longshot, the books have them at a number that says they have a much lower chance than that. Generally, Tampa Bay is a 30/1 underdog to win Super Bowl LIX at most places. That is implied odds of 3.23% for them to do so, which means we are getting about +3.5% EV on this wager. That is the highest I have calculated of all the teams, so consider a small bet on Baker and the Bucs.
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