NFL Week 14 offers a slate filled with exciting matchups, and we’ve zeroed in on the best player prop bets to help you cash in. From Titans QB Will Levis facing a porous Jaguars defense to Steelers WR George Pickens poised for a big-play performance against Cleveland, these props offer tremendous value. Let’s dive into the top plays, including Kyren Williams’ receiving upside and Brock Bowers’ dominance as the Raiders’ go-to target.
Season Record: 83-52 (61.5%, +19.4 units)
Titans QB Will Levis Over 207.5 Passing Yards vs. Jaguars (-115, BetRivers)
Since returning from his midseason injury, dare I say that Levis has looked like an NFL quarterback? With a 7:2 TD:INT ratio over the last four weeks, he’s gone over this 207.5 passing yards mark three straight times with 295 against the Vikings, 278 against the Texans and 212 against the Commanders. Now, he gets the best-possible matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed an NFL-high 284.17 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. Tennessee will likely give Levis plenty of opportunities to prove that he can be their franchise QB down the stretch and I expect him to continue to ball out in this matchup. I might consider laddering this up as well.
Rams RB Kyren Williams Over 10.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bills (-109, Caesars)
Buffalo has allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (47.42), thus thrusting Williams into an incredible spot to exceed this number. While he hasn’t been active as a receiver over the last three weeks, catching just one pass combined for nine yards in that span, he recorded 20, 26 and 19 in the three contests before that and also went for 27 yards in two games earlier in the year. Assuming that Los Angeles is going to be playing from behind against Buffalo (-3), I love Williams’ upside as a pass-catcher this week and trust that Sean McVay and his staff are going to put together a game plan that exploits Buffalo’s defensive weakness.
Steelers WR George Pickens Over 28.5 Yards Longest Reception vs. Browns (-110, BetMGM)
Cleveland has allowed an NFL-high 16.36 yards per catch to opposing wideouts and Pickens has been one of the best big-play receivers to target all year long. He had a 31-yard reception with Justin Fields under center against the Browns earlier this season and has recorded a catch over 28.5 yards in nine of 12 games (75%) this season. Fields and then Russell Wilson have looked his way down the field. On the year, Pickens has 20 different 20-plus yard target receptions (14) and ranks 3rd in the NFL in Air Yards (1,207). I expect him to go off and to be Wilson’s top target after the QB threw for 414 yards last week. If you recall, Pickens got into some altercations against Cleveland’s secondary last time these teams played (a Steelers loss in the snow), so I assume he’s going to be trying to make a major statement in the rematch.
Raiders TE Brock Bowers Over 68.5 Receiving Yards vs. Buccaneers (-115, BetMGM)
I think Bowers is already the best tight end in the NFL. Ranking 4th in the NFL with 884 receiving yards, he’s going to break rookie receiving marks… as a tight end. To put into context how incredible he’s been, heading into Week 14, he needs two catches to become the all-time rookie receptions leader and his 84 catches leads the entire NFL… including receivers. Last week against the Chiefs, he caught 10 of 14 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown and lined up all over formations as the Raiders schemed to get him the football. There’s no reason to assume the game plan will be any different against the Buccaneers, who have allowed the 3rd-most yards per game to opposing tight ends this season (66.67). Since the Raiders (+6.5) are underdogs, he should also benefit from a pass-heavy game script, which only boosts his upside.
Saints WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling Over 20.5 Yards Longest Reception vs. Giants (-108, FanDuel)
Since Week 9 against single-high coverage (which the Giants have ran at the 2nd-highest rate since then), Valdes-Scantling shockingly leads the NFL with 38.33 yards per catch, a 26.1 aDOT, 28.75 yards per target and a 4.42 yards per route run mark (h/t @KyleJustBets on X). With Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Bub Means and Taysom Hill all out against the Giants this week, I absolutely love this number for MVS, who has racked up long catches of 67, 71 and 28 yards over the last three weeks.
49ers RB Isaac Guerendo Over 71.5 Rush Yards vs. Bears (-117, BetRivers)
Over the last four weeks, Chicago’s run defense has been the worst in the entire NFL, allowing the following yardage to opposing running backs: Jahmyr Gibbs (87), David Montgomery (88) on the Lions, Aaron Jones (106) on the Vikings, Josh Jacobs (76) on the Packers and Rhamondre Stevenson (74) on the Patriots. With true 4.3 speed, the youngster will now get the bulk of the carries with Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out with injuries.
Jets RB Braelon Allen Over 52.5 Rushing Yards vs. Dolphins (-113, FanDuel)
With Breece Hall out, Allen is going to get the bulk of the carries against the Dolphins and I’m excited to see how he performs with a full starter’s workload. I’ve watched more Jets football than I probably should have this season and can confirm that Allen has looked better than Hall from an explosiveness perspective at times and I expect him to be running very hard against their division rival.
Chargers TE Will Dissly Over 35.5 Receiving Yards vs. Chiefs (-113, FanDuel)
Another week, another tight end against the Chiefs. Sure, Dissly went under this mark in his first game against the Chiefs, but he played about one-third of the snaps compared to the two-third of the snaps he’s been playing recently. Kansas City has allowed the most receptions (6.67) and receiving yards (78.5) to opposing tight ends and to put that into perspective, the team that has allowed the 2nd-most yards to the position is the Raiders at 66.92 per game. Ladd McConkey is also questionable for this Sunday Night Football matchup; if he sits or is limited, this becomes an even better play. Back on October 21, Dissly flashed his upside against the Cardinals with eight catches on 11 targets for 81 yards. I’m not saying we’re going to necessarily see a repeat here, but it wouldn’t shock me based on how the Chiefs have been unable to defend his position or the slot this year.
Related
