NFL Week 15 brings intriguing opportunities for player props, especially for running backs in favorable matchups. This week, I’m focusing on De’Von Achane’s pass-catching role, Rico Dowdle’s dominance on the ground, and Brian Robinson Jr.’s potential for a big rushing performance. Here’s why these props stand out and how to capitalize on them.
My Season Record: 90-58 (60.81%, +19.19u)
Dolphins RB De’Von Achane Over 4.5 Receptions vs. Texans (-120, DraftKings)
With Tua Tagovailoa under center, Achane has gone over 4.5 receptions in seven of nine starts this season and over the last couple weeks, his upside based on volume has been on display, catching eight of nine targets for 56 yards against the Packers and then six of seven targets for 45 yards against the Jets. Tagovailoa and Achane are clearly in synch and as 3-point road underdogs, there’s a reasonable assumption that Houston will be playing from ahead on their home turf, which should put the Fins in passing situations throughout.
Keep in mind that Achane played a season-high 83% of the snaps in last week’s must-win game and at 6-7, this is the same desperate situation. Therefore, there’s reason to believe that he should be out there for the lion’s share of the snaps yet again. Keep in mind that Miami also has some offensive line injuries against Houston’s solid pass rush, so if Tua needs to get rid of the ball quickly, Achane is a likely dump-off option in addition to his normal involvement on screen passes and on routes out of the backfield and in the slot.
Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle Over 82.5 Rushing Yards vs. Panthers (-114, BetRivers)
Backing over rushing yards for running backs against the Panthers is so original, I know. Carolina’s defense has allowed 138.62 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is not just the most in the NFL, but the most by 20.62 yards over the next team. The Panthers have also allowed 4.99 yards per carry to opposing running backs (3rd-most in the NFL), so those rushing yards are not simply a product of opposing teams playing from ahead; Carolina simply can’t stop the run. If there’s anything positive from this Cowboys season, it’s been the ascension of Dowdle in recent weeks. Racking up 86, 112 and 131 rushing yards in recent weeks, he should continue to get elite volume this week as he looks to build off his recent success.
Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. Over 74.5 Rushing Yards vs. Saints (-113, FanDuel)
Coming off one of his best games of the season (16 carries, 103 rushing yards in 42-19 win over Titans) and a bye to get rested, Robinson is in a fantastic spot to produce this week with a strong rushing performance. Jake Haener is making his first career start for the Saints this week and I have absolutely no faith in that offense putting up enough points to stay close to the Commanders. Robinson should get plenty of touches against a Saints defense that has allowed an NFL-high 5.03 yards per carry to opposing running backs. With Austin Ekeler out and at 8-5 on the season, the Commanders will be relying on their bruising back to run hard and with purpose in this important contest.
Additional Picks
Patriots QB Drake Maye Over 244.5 Passing + Rushing Yards vs. Cardinals (-113, BetRivers)
Patriots TE Hunter Henry Over 4.5 Receptions vs. Cardinals (-118, FanDuel)
Cardinals TE Trey McBride Over 5.5 Receptions vs. Patriots (-155, BetMGM)
Panthers WR Adam Thielen Over 4.5 Receptions vs. Cowboys (-128, FanDuel)
Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 Receptions vs. Texans (+112, Caesars)
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey Over 5.5 Receptions vs. Buccaneers (-114, FanDuel)
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