We have NFL games on a Saturday this weekend to celebrate the holidays, which I guess I can never complain about more football, but having to switch between that and the college football playoff games will get annoying. The good news is we have more to bet on and more money to win tailing the BetQL model, which has been on fire this NFL season as always. The model has gone 468-317-23 (60% win) on 3-Star and higher NFL bets of $100 in the last 365 days, which has made subscribers a whopping $2,578 over that span.
Considering that is just the NFL wagers, you can see how much our All-Sports subs are up tailing NBA, NHL, NCAAB etc. Let’s take a look at the what the model is targeting this special Saturday in the NFL, where we get two great matchups to enjoy,
Houston Texans (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
Spread: Chiefs -3.5 (4-Star)
Total: Over 42 (2-Star)
When it comes to betting model plays, I think anything with at least three stars is worth having something on. A 3-Star wager is worth a half-unit in my opinion, while the 4-Star and 5-Star plays are the model’s best bets. They are worth a full unit, and we have one of those here in this game. The model clearly likes Kansas City here laying -3.5 at home now that QB Patrick Mahomes has been ruled in for the game.
While it is sometimes risky to bet on the Chiefs as a favorite over -3, as they have a very poor history of covering those games, the model is projecting Kansas City at a fair line of -7 at home in this one. The Texans have been overrated in the market a lot this season, and overall have been disappointing this year. Whenever the projection is this far off from the actual line, you are going to get some serious value.
In terms of the total, there isn’t much here with just a 2-Star rating on the over. The model is projecting a fair line of 43.5 for this game, so just a point and a half off from the line. I would just skip this for now unless the line changes drastically.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) at Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
Spread: Ravens -6.5 (3-Star)
Total: Under 45.5 (1-Star)
The model is less enthusiastic about this game after simulating it 10,000 times, but the good news is it still gives you a wager here to have something to sweat out at least. A 3-Star bet on Ravens -6.5 is worth a play, but for me, it would only be for about a half unit or so. I talked a bunch this week in other articles about how good the Steelers have been covering as an underdog against Baltimore, so laying this many points is worrisome. However, the model projects the Ravens as a -9 favorite at home here.
At just a single star, there isn’t anything here on the total that would give you a massive advantage. In fact, the model projects the game at 45 points exactly on average, so it is right in line with the majority of the market. For me personally, I like the under in the game due to the possibility of bad weather, and with the last six straight games of this series hitting the under as well.
Whatever you decide to wager on, good luck and let's have a great weekend of wagering!
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