NFL action takes center stage this Saturday with two intriguing matchups, including a heated AFC North rivalry between the Steelers and Ravens, and a showdown between the Texans and Chiefs. Whether you're looking for spread bets, totals, or sharp insights, we've got you covered. From Pittsburgh's impressive underdog record against Lamar Jackson to the potential weather impacts in Baltimore, these games are loaded with betting angles worth exploring. Let's dive into the top plays for Saturday’s slate!
Steelers (10-4) +6.5 at Ravens (9-5): -105, Caesars
We have two NFL games on Saturday, which in my opinion, is quite annoying since I’ll have to keep flipping channels between the NFL and college football playoff games. Oh well, I guess I can’t complain about more football. The later game has more appeal to me right now when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Baltimore Ravens in a classic rivalry game between two winning teams. Personally, I think this spread is a bit too large here at +6.5, and I would back the Steelers at that number.
First off, Pittsburgh is coming off that blowout loss to the Philadelphia Eagles 27-13 last week. The game honestly didn’t even feel that close, as it was a terrible performance for the Steelers offense and QB Russell Wilson. Baltimore, meanwhile, completely whipped the lowly New York Giants 35-14. That was expected with the Ravens being a -16 favorite in the game, and again, that game never felt even remotely close for New York.
Opposite results last weekend for these teams makes me want to take the team that had a stinker, which was Pittsburgh. On top of that, Pittsburgh is a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog against Ravens QB Lamar Jackson in his career.
Steelers (10-4) at Ravens (9-5) Under 45.5: -115, FanDuel
This line has already come down from 46, and some places have it at 45 right now, so I’ll take the number at FanDuel. In addition to everything I said above as to why the Steelers are valuable here, it is quite interesting how poor the Ravens offense has been against Pittsburgh in Jackson’s tenure at QB. In their last eight matchups, Baltimore has failed to score 20 points in any of them. There is injury concern with T.J. Watt, but with the total moving down, I feel like he is going to play.
While it is pretty astounding what Mike Tomlin’s defense has been able to do to a high-scoring Ravens team, Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up, either. In their last eight games this season, they haven’t managed to score more than 20 points. On top of that, the last six straight games between Baltimore and Pittsburgh have resulted in a total of 34 or below.
Putting on my weatherman cap, there is also a good chance at some decent wind in this game of 13 mph with some rain. That all adds up to a low-scoring affair in my book, and the sportsbook also always wants the under in island games.
Texans (9-5) +3.5 at Chiefs (13-1): -110, DraftKings
I really don’t have a huge opinion on this game and haven’t all week thanks to the Patrick Mahomes line movement fiasco. If you got the Chiefs as an underdog, then you can try to middle it here with the Texans now as an underdog. Either way, this game is expected to be very close, and I think the same.
If I can get a +3 with either team, I would take it for a smaller amount. The Chiefs are a super public team, especially at home, but they have a really hard time covering spreads of more than a field goal in Mahomes’ career with the team. You want to bet on them when they are underdogs, and generally fading them as a larger favorite has been profitable.
This is probably my smallest Saturday bet, as I feel more confident in the Ravens game, but I still always have to have something on these island games. And you know the under is also going to be a small play.
Related
