The Week 17 Saturday slate features a trio of intriguing matchups—Chargers at Patriots, Broncos at Bengals, and Cardinals at Rams. With playoff hopes on the line for some teams and player development taking center stage for others, these games present exciting opportunities for bettors to capitalize on player prop markets. From Antonio Gibson’s expanded role in New England’s backfield to Marvin Mims’ emergence as a deep-threat option for Denver, and Trey McBride’s quest for his first touchdown, here are the best player prop picks for Saturday’s action.
Patriots RB Antonio Gibson Over 26.5 Rushing Yards vs. Chargers (-117, BetRivers)
After Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled for the SEVENTH time this season in Week 16, I expect the Patriots to turn the page and give Gibson the bulk of the carries against the Chargers. New England is, of course, out of playoff contention, so it would make sense to give Gibson (who signed a three year, $11.25M contract before the season) some additional opportunities in this one. Regardless, Gibson has gone over this number four times in a row, with 31, 62, 33 and 28 yards on six, seven, seven and 10 carries, respectively. LA’s defense has been stout for most of the year, but gave up 223 and then 110 rushing yards over the last couple weeks. I expect New England to keep their offense run-oriented and to keep Drake Maye out of harm’s way as much as possible, so all signs are pointing towards Gibson to pop, in my opinion. I expect him to get 10-to-13 carries, which should be more than enough for him to get over 26.5 rushing yards.
Broncos WR Marvin Mims Over 24.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bengals (-115, BetMGM)
Mims played a season-high 47% of the snaps last game and made the most of his opportunity, catching three of five targets for 62 yards. He’s now gone over 24.5 receiving yards in four of his last five contests, amassing 49, 44, 105, 20 and 62 in that span. Not only that, but his big-play ability has been on full display in that span, as he’s logged long catches of 37, 37, 93 and 53 in the four games he went over the number. Whenever a player can realistically go over a yardage mark with one catch, I’m intrigued, and this is one of those obvious situations.
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Cardinals TE Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown vs. Rams (+160, FanDuel)
McBride delivered one of his few duds of the season last week, but I’m going right back to him this week against the Rams. Catching 92 of 120 targets for 958 yards, McBride famously hasn’t scored a touchdown yet this year, but he’s been the best tight end not named Brock Bowers in my opinion. Before last week’s letdown against the Panthers, McBride drew double-digit targets (15, 12, 14, 10) in four straight games, catching 12, 12, seven and nine passes in that span. With the Cardinals eliminated from the playoffs after last week’s loss to Carolina, I expect Murray to make it a point to get McBride the football, especially after he had a 11% first-read target share last week, the lowest rate of his entire career as a starting NFL TE. Rather than going over 6.5 receptions or over 60.5 receiving yards, I’ll opt for the anytime TD, which would be his first of the season, breaking the NFL’s longest streak of receptions without a TD!
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