The NFL regular season has come to an end, and with that, we now know our Wild Card matchups for this weekend. I honestly love Wild Card weekend, as we usually get some really exciting games with a bunch of upsets as well. You truly never know what is going to happen, but we can take a look at recent history to find some trends in order to make some predictions. There are a few we have been looking at, but one that stands out right away might surprise you.
Our friend John Ewing from BetMGM shared a tidbit that is really interesting to me. Since 2014, road favorites in the NFL Playoffs are 3-10-2 (23%) ATS!
Basically, they have been horrible over the last decade and have lost bettors a lot of cash in that time. We have two teams that will classify as one of those teams this coming weekend, so will they share in the same horrible fate as the previous teams have?
First up, we have the Minnesota Vikings as a -1.5 road favorite against the Rams in Los Angeles. You have to feel a bit bad for the Vikings here, who are another victim of what is a terrible playoff format. This is a team that went 14-3, the second best record in the entire NFL, and yet they will be the 5-seed on the road to start their journey. This is because the Detroit Lions in their own division went 15-2, and defeated them in the last game to clinch the NFC North.
Maybe it is just bad luck, or maybe they are a fraud, but we will find out this weekend. If they are truly a Super Bowl contender, they will buck this trend and defeat the Rams in L.A. If not, it looks like road favorites could be 3-11-2 since 2014.
The other team that classifies for this trend? The Los Angeles Chargers, who are -2.5 favorites on the road in Houston against the Texans. Head coach Jim Harbaugh deserves his flowers for bringing the Chargers back to the playoffs after how bad they were in 2023, but this won’t be an easy challenge. Many people are down on Houston due to their injuries and the poor overall play of QB C.J. Stroud this season. However, I think they could be undervalued here for that very reason.
No matter how you feel about it, these teams are going to have to defy recent history if they want to advance in the NFL Playoffs. It is never easy to win on the road, and we have seen a ton of upsets in this scenario over the last decade. Send a prayer up for Vikings and Chargers fans, so bet against them and see if this trend continues.
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