The Buffalo Bills have once again proven that they are one of the best teams in the NFL, handing the previously-undefeated Kansas City Chiefs their first loss of the year in a 30-21 victory at home. Many people were sleeping on the Bills before the season started, thinking that their Super Bowl window had closed after multiple seasons of disappointment and the departure of key players. However, they are 9-2 through their first 11 games of the year and look to be as dangerous as ever.
The reason why the Bills have risen to prominence again over the last few years is undoubtedly the play of quarterback Josh Allen. We all know that in the NFL, if you don’t have a superstar at QB, you have a very low chance of winning the Super Bowl. Finding a generational talent at that position is nearly essential if you want sustained long-term success, and luckily for Buffalo, they managed to do what many teams can’t.
This season in particular, they have had to rely on their offense more than ever. They have been involved in a ton of high-scoring games in 2024, especially at home, where a wild trend has started to emerge. In Bills home games in Buffalo, games have soared over the total every time at the sportsbooks. The over is 5-0 in Buffalo this season,with every game having more points scored than expected.
Obviously, the Bills get a boost at home from the “Bills Mafia” as they like to be called. Not only have the games all gone over, but Buffalo has also won every game at home this season. Beating them in Buffalo has been a very tough task for any team since Allen became the QB, as they score a lot at home and other teams often are having to catch up. None of this is very shocking though.
I am not sure how notable or exploitable this trend actually is, as the oddsmakers surely bake this kind of stuff into the number each week. It’s obvious that they haven’t done so quite enough, but trends like this usually aren’t exactly sustainable. I don’t really lean into trends because they really are just random. The Bills are better at home and score a lot, that is pretty much my takeaway from this, but that is already known. The team is 7-4 to the over this year overall.
Buffalo is on a bye week next weekend, but after that, they will get the San Francisco 49ers at home in Buffalo. The total of the game is set at 47.5 right now, so if you are a believer that trends like this matter, head over to bet that now. The 49ers are 5-5 this season in terms of the total, and 2-2 on the road.
Now that this trend is known and is starting to gain steam, I expect money to flow into the over. Not only that, but it will be a primetime island game, and unders are very valuable in those games. I’ll probably bet the under and fade this trend.
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