The Lions (13-2) head to San Francisco on Monday night to face the 49ers (6-9) in a matchup that doesn’t carry much significance. With Detroit’s eyes firmly set on securing the NFC’s No. 1 seed in their pivotal Week 18 showdown with the Vikings, and the 49ers already out of playoff contention, the stakes aren’t exactly high. But don’t expect either team to mail it in—this is still a game with plenty of talent on both sides.
Here’s a same-game parlay that has the potential to hit big:
Lions Moneyline, George Kittle Under 5.5 Receptions, Isaac Guerendo Anytime Touchdown (+450, BetMGM)
Detroit has been a strong bet against the spread (10-4-1) this season, including a 6-1 ATS record on the road. While the Lions’ defense is certainly banged up, they’re facing a 49ers squad that’s not only dealing with its own injury issues but also missing key offensive lineman Trent Williams. His absence has been a significant factor in Brock Purdy's struggles this year. Meanwhile, the Lions’ offense is much more explosive and Jahmyr Gibbs can handle the run game just fine without David Montgomery. Even though the outcome of this game isn’t crucial for Detroit, Dan Campbell’s squad hasn’t forgotten last year’s heartbreaking playoff elimination at the hands of the 49ers. You can bet that’s been a point of motivation all week, and I expect the Lions to come out with a chip on their shoulder. With the line set at -3.5, it seems a bit fishy, so I’ll grab Detroit straight up on the moneyline instead of the spread.
George Kittle has been the focal point of the 49ers’ offense in recent weeks, hauling in 18 catches for 318 yards over the past three games. With so many of San Francisco’s key offensive weapons sidelined, Brock Purdy has relied heavily on Kittle to move the chains. However, the Lions have been excellent at defending tight ends this season, allowing the second-fewest receptions and fourth-fewest targets to the position. Given Kittle’s recent surge in production, his reception total has climbed from 4.5 to 5.5 in the last couple of weeks, making this a prime opportunity to bet the under and capitalize on a sell-high situation.
Finally, with both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason out of the lineup, Isaac Guerendo steps into the RB1 role for the 49ers. He’s been heavily involved in the offense, carrying the ball 15 times against the Bears and 16 times against the Rams in the last two weeks. More importantly, Guerendo has scored three touchdowns across his last three games. At -140 for an anytime touchdown, it’s a bit too expensive to play alone, but it’s the perfect leg to include in a parlay. Given the high total and the potential for the 49ers to lean on the run game with Guerendo, this is a great spot for him to find the end zone again.
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