Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes wasted no time solidifying himself as one of baseball’s top pitchers last season, accumulating a 11-3 record to go along with a 1.96 ERA (2.44 FIP), 0.95 WHIP and .197 BAA while striking out 33.1% of hitters faced through 133.0 innings (23 starts) as a rookie.
His 4.3 WAR proved how valuable he was for the Pirates and he ended up finishing third in the NL Cy Young voting behind Chris Sale and Zack Wheeler. Now heading into his first full season at the MLB level, BetMGM is giving him a ton of respect, and rightfully so.
Livvy Dunne’s boyfriend has +200 odds to win the 2025 NL Cy Young Award, miles ahead of Wheeler (+800), Sale (+1300) and two-time winners Blake Snell (+900) and Corbin Burnes (+1400). Not only that, but he has +1000 odds to lead the MLB in wins (3rd-shortest behind Wheeler and Tarik Skubal) and is the odds leader to lead the Majors in strikeouts at +350 (ahead of Garrett Crochet at +600 and Skubal at +700).
To put his numbers as a rookie into context, here’s how they would have stacked up against qualified starters: 33.1 K% (1st), 1.96 ERA (1st), 2.44 FIP (2nd), 0.95 WHIP (3rd) and .197 BAA (T4th). He also ranked 9th among starting pitchers in WAR despite pitching roughly ten games fewer than qualified guys. His 21.2 sinker runs against average (Statcast) also graded out as the most effective sinker and most effective pitch of any type among MLB starters.
So, what to do about Skenes’ futures? I think we need to consider how awful Pittsburgh’s lineup looks and take run support into account here. That’s why he will have an uphill battle to lead the league in wins (+1000). I’d stay away there. That could also limit his ability to rack up enough wins to stand out above a ton of talented starters in the NL for Cy Young with 33.3% implied odds at +200. I’d also stay away there and previously wrote about how much I love Burnes. I think the value is with Skenes to lead the MLB in strikeouts at +350. With an elite K-rate coming once again, we wouldn’t need to factor in wins and count on his teammates at all.
Nonetheless, it’ll be fascinating to see what he does on the mound this year as the most hyped up pitcher in recent memory.
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