It’s way too early to start talking about the awards market for the 2025 NFL season. Or is it?
The NFL dominates the conversation year-round, and with free agency and the draft still ahead, it’s the perfect time to take a way-too-early swing at an MVP sleeper pick for next season.
At the top of the odds board, the usual suspects lead the way. Lamar Jackson opens as the favorite at +450, followed by reigning MVP Josh Allen at +600 on BetMGM. Patrick Mahomes (+700) is essentially a permanent fixture in this conversation, and Joe Burrow (+750) isn’t far behind. These names make sense—they’re proven stars with elite track records. But at this stage of the offseason, I’m looking for value, and there’s one name further down the board that stands out: Texans QB C.J. Stroud at +2200.
Stroud was nothing short of spectacular as a rookie in 2023, leading Houston to an AFC South title and a playoff win while throwing for over 4,100 yards with 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. But last season, the dreaded sophomore slump hit. Stroud’s numbers took a dip, finishing with 12 interceptions, and at times, the Texans’ offense struggled to find a rhythm.
However, injuries absolutely decimated Houston’s offensive firepower.
Top wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both suffered season-ending injuries, and WR1 Nico Collins also missed time. Losing that much talent in the receiving corps would derail almost any quarterback. If all three are healthy next season—assuming Diggs, who is a free agent, returns—the Texans could recapture the magic of 2023, when their offense ranked 13th in scoring. By comparison, they fell to 18th in 2024, showing just how much those injuries impacted the team.
Another major factor is the arrival of new offensive coordinator Nick Caley. The Texans parted ways with Bobby Slowik after an underwhelming season in which Houston’s offense lacked a true identity. Some players even suggested Slowik struggled with in-game adjustments, which became an issue in key moments. Enter Caley, who spent the last two years working under Sean McVay with the Rams—one of the brightest offensive minds in the game. If Caley can revamp this offense and get the most out of Stroud, the third-year QB could take a massive leap forward.
At +2200, Stroud offers solid value in the MVP race. He has the arm talent, the weapons (if healthy), and now, potentially, the right play-caller to maximize his potential. If Houston’s offense bounces back and the Texans make another playoff push, Stroud will be right in the MVP mix.
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