KCBS Radio has learned why there was a temporary jump in the Bay Area’s ICU capacity just hours before Gov. Gavin Newsom decided to lift the regional stay-at-home order earlier this week.
Until Sunday afternoon, the Bay Area’s remaining ICU capacity was trending in the six to eight percent range for days.
All of a sudden, on Sunday, it soared to over 23 percent.
That evening, with projections now showing it would reach 25 percent within a month, Gov. Newsom decided to lift the order. But by the next morning, the remaining ICU space was back down to eight percent, where it stands now.
What happened?
State health officials told KCBS Radio that for two days, Friday through Sunday, they switched from counting surge ICU patients - how many extra COVID-19 patients are in the ICUs - to counting how many surge ICU beds were available - a much more volatile number that fluctuates based on how hospitals manage their space.
That produced an artificially inflated figure that officials quickly decided was not as reliable as counting actual people.
So, they switched back and the number came back down.
A spokesperson for the California Department of Public Health assured KCBS Radio that the projected four-week capacity that allowed for the stay-at-home order to end is based on the more accurate patient count, and officials remain confident the state will see ample ICU space by February 21.
So far that space is still at zero percent in Southern California, and hasn’t budged statewide since the optimistic projection was revealed four days ago.
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