California's public health officials lifted the state's regional stay-at-home orders Monday morning, effective immediately.
The announcement impacts the Bay Area, San Joaquin Valley and hard-hit Southern California regions. The Greater Sacramento region had already exited the order because projected ICU capacity would exceed 15 percent within four weeks, while Northern California had not fallen under the guidelines at all.
Gov. Newsom announced Monday that all five California regions are projected to have more than 15 percent ICU availability in four weeks.
The move returns California’s counties to the color-coded tier assignments that preceded the restrictive lockdown. "Four-week ICU capacity projections for these three regions are above 15%, the threshold that allows regions to exit the order," said the California Department of Public Health.
The state's projections for ICU capacity on February 21 are as follows:
Southern California: 33.3 percent
San Joaquin Valley: 22.3 percent
Bay Area: 25 percent
Greater Sacramento: 27.3 percent
Northern California: 18.9 percent
Gov. Newsom also said the statewide ICU capacity is expected to be 30.3 percent in four weeks, which is why he feels confident in lifting the restrictions even though capacity in some regions is still staggeringly low.
"Today we can lay claim to starting to see some real light at the end of the tunnel in regards to case numbers," he said.
California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly said the state will publicize the data and model used to make the ICU projections on its website today, after critics called for more transparency into the decision making process.
The state's 14-day positivity rate is now at 9.4 percent, falling below 10 percent the first time in weeks. While it is much lower that what the state has seen over the last two months, it is still relatively high compared to the course of the pandemic overall.
CDPH officials announced over the weekend that Bay Area ICU availability had jumped from 6.5 to 23.4 percent, well above the 15 percent capacity threshold.
The San Joaquin Valley's ICU's have finally moved out of surge mode to 1.3 percent capacity, rising above zero for the first time in weeks. But Southern California, consistently the hardest-hit region in the state, is still at zero percent ICU capacity.
The change allows outdoor dining and indoor salons to immediately resume business.
Most California counties will return to the purple tier. The state's latest map from January 19 shows every county except for Alpine, Mariposa, Sierra and Trinity are currently in the purple tier. The state updates tier assignments every Tuesday.
The state has also lifted its overnight stay-at-home order, which prohibited gatherings after 10 p.m.
"California is slowly starting to emerge from the most dangerous surge of this pandemic yet, which is the light at the end of the tunnel we’ve been hoping for," said Dr. Ghaly. "Seven weeks ago, our hospitals and front-line medical workers were stretched to their limits, but Californians heard the urgent message to stay home when possible and our surge after the December holidays did not overwhelm the health care system to the degree we had feared."
The change was first reported Sunday evening in a letter from the California Restaurant Association to its members.
The announcement comes as infection rates and hospitalizations appear to be slowing throughout California, but the short-term impact continues to be felt. The state's Department of Public Health reported a single-day record 764 coronavirus-related deaths last Friday.
State health officials said that while conditions are improving, the pandemic is still far from over and it is "critical" that Californians continue to follow state and local guidelines and safety protocols including wearing masks in public, physical distancing, hand washing and avoiding gatherings.
Gov. Newsom has been under growing pressure to curb the economic impacts of the stay-at-home order. Restaurateurs have launched lawsuits and petitions demanding that outdoor dining be allowed to continue, with many on the verge of going out of business, and a Republican-led effort to recall the governor has been gaining steam.
It is not immediately clear whether Bay Area officials will allow more sectors of business to reopen.
Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Santa Clara, San Francisco and Sonoma counties as well as the city of Berkeley voluntarily adopted the stay-at-home orders before it was mandated by the state and local officials could choose to keep stricter measures in place.
San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin and Sonoma counties have announced plans to reopen. Santa Clara County officials are going to brief residents in the afternoon about what the changes will mean there.
"I'm excited we're able to do this, and I know that it will provide some relief to small businesses and workers that have been really struggling for months now," San Francisco Mayor London Breed wrote on Twitter. "But this pandemic is not over. We have to keep doing the things we know help keep our cases under control."
An earlier version of this story incorrectly listed the state's ICU projections for Greater Sacramento and Northern California. These figures were transposed during the governor's presentation.
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