SAN FRANCISCO (KCBS RADIO) – What makes some viruses turn into pandemics, like COVID-19, while others stay more localized?
Dr. Joseph Fauver, Epidemiologist and professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center College of Public Health, told KCBS Radio's "Ask An Expert" part of the answer can be found in virus transmission.
"The transmissibility of the virus has a lot to do with whether or not a virus can become pandemic," he said. "In thinking of the context for SARS-CoV-2, why different lineages of the virus seem to win out over others, a lot of that has to do with increased transmissibility."
When comparing omicron to its subvariant BA.2, this idea that some virus lineages can "win out" others is exemplified, as BA.2 becomes the dominant strain throughout the world. "What we are seeing with omicron is the BA.1 omicron samples were quite a bit different genetically than the BA.2 omicron samples," Fauver said.
Other characteristics that indicate a virus may reach pandemic status include diseases that can make a zoonotic leap — jump from animal to person — and whether a virus is transmitted through the respiratory system.
A viral outbreak commonly compared to the coronavirus is the 1918 Spanish flu, caused by the influenza virus which is also transmitted through respiratory infection.
"I think the comparison is made a lot because, for one, they've been very large in consequential pandemics," Fauver explained. "Both of them have caused very very large pandemics that have killed a lot of people and they're both respiratory viruses so they're transmitted in very similar ways. You can draw a lot of the comparisons there.” However, he added, "the virus itself is actually quite different."
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