Only two weeks of campaigning remain before the Sept. 14 recall election, and millions of votes have already been cast. Figures from Political Data Inc. showed more than 3.5 million mail-in ballots have already been returned. The ballots account for about a 16 percent turnout, which is far more early voting than was forecasted.
Poll watchers say getting Democrats to vote is critical to keeping Gov. Gavin Newsom in office. And it seems that California’s Democrats got the message, according to political analyst Rob Korinke.
“What we’re looking for is ‘Are Democrats voting?’ and, indeed, they are. Democratic returns are outpacing Republican returns by a pretty substantial margin both as a percentage and to the tune of an extra million votes thus far from Democrats than from Republicans,” he said.
Robert Shrum, the director of the Center for the Political Future at the USC Dornsife College, agreed that Newsom needs to get Democrats to vote.
“The recall is all about turnout. A majority clearly oppose it, and Democrats are engaging in a media campaign and a ground game designed to motivate voting,” Shrum said.
The high number of returned ballots from Democrats is only good news for Newsom if there is an assumption that Democrats are voting against the recall. Commentators have posited that support for Newsom among Democrats might be less than normal because of issues like the state’s homelessness crises and taxes.
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Mailing ballots to registered voters in the state also helps improve turnout among those less motivated to get to the polls.
“It helps [Democrats] that everyone is being mailed a ballot and it’s very easy to fill out,” said Shrum.
He added that the simple message of voting no to the recall can unify Democratic voters and maximize the party’s messaging by not getting bogged down in responded to any of the 46 potential replacement candidates.
The California Republican Party similarly decided to simplify its message in the hopes of defeating Newsom on Sept 14. The party voted to not endorse any candidate as a way to increase turnout among Republicans who care more about getting rid of Newsom than any opposing candidate.
San Jose State political analyst Larry Gerston said that although Larry Elder remains the leading GOP challenger to Newsom the recall is a very volatile election.
“Time can change a lot. The next couple of weeks, who knows what’s going to happen, what kind of issues will pop up,” he said.
The deadline to vote is Sept. 14 when polling places will also be open. Monday is the last day to register to vote in Los Angeles County if you want a mail-in ballot.
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