(SportsRadio 610) - Following the conclusion of Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round battle between the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans, one of two things will likely be true.
Either Lamar Jackson will have changed the narrative of his shrinking performances in the playoffs, or the legend of C.J. Stroud will continue to grow.
Lamar Jackson, 27, is in line to become the NFL’s MVP for the second time in his six-year career after putting together maybe his most complete regular season yet.
The Ravens quarterback threw for a career-high 3,678 yards, while also completing a career best 67.2 percent of his passes and tossing 24 touchdowns to just seven interceptions this season. Jackson also ran for 821 yards on the ground and scored five touchdowns.
His elusiveness and ability to make plays with both his arm and legs off-schedule has taken his game to another level and transformed the Ravens offense into one of the most explosive in the league.
Yet, in four career playoff games, Jackson has struggled to replicate the regular season version. Jackson is just 1-3 as a starter since the 2019 postseason, with his lone victory coming against the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card round in 2021.
In those four postseason starts, Jackson has completed just 55 percent of his passes, thrown just three touchdowns to five interceptions and has fumbled five times.
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Despite the two-time All-Pro’s struggles in previous postseasons, Texans defensive coordinator Matt Burke thinks Saturday is the ultimate test for the Texans defense, especially given the multiple ways Jackson can and has made plays this season.
“Sort of like we preached all year, but even at a heightened level of rushing as a unit,” Burke said. “Like, we can have independent contractors out there.”
There’s always things you can take away from a first meeting against an opponent, both the good and the bad. Looking back at the first meeting between these two teams, one of the things the Texans can learn from is when and how the defense was able to attack Jackson and force him into mistakes.
The Texans were credited with four sacks of Jackson in their 25-9 week one loss, but really only got to him to him three times as one was a "team" sack after Jackson fumbled the snap. Nevertheless, the Texans got to Jackson using a four-man rush on two occasions, with a delayed linebacker blitz on another, which complicated matters for the Ravens defensive line.
How the Texans choose to attack on Saturday will be interesting, given the fact that they’ve changed the way they’ve attacked opposing quarterbacks as the season has gone along, using the blitz and/or bringing six men or less sparingly.
The Texans have brought at least six defenders on 42 drop backs this season, getting a pressure on 66.7 percent of those plays. While they’ve only generated a sack 7.1 percent of the time, their defensive success rating is 57 percent, which ranks an unimpressive 21st in the league.
The Texans have limited opposing quarterbacks to just a 54.1 percent completion percentage on the blitz and a 69.7 passer rating, which is the fifth-best mark in the league. A small sample size, but relatively successful considering that opposing quarterbacks have only scored two touchdowns against a Texans blitz and have thrown two interceptions.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans and Burke will certainly have to be timely in their attack on Saturday, especially given that Will Anderson Jr. and Jonathan Greenard have both been limited since suffering ankle injuries within the past month.
Anderson has played less than 60 percent of the defensive snaps in three consecutive games, while Greenard has been limited to a total of just 18 snaps the previous two games combined.
Of the aforementioned 42 drop backs in which the Texans blitzed, 27 of those rushes came against the Ravens (Lamar Jackson-5), Saints (Derek Carr-10), Panthers (Bryce Young-5) and Cardinals (Kyler Murray-7). The Texans went 2-2 against those teams in which they used the blitz more than usual and intercepted Jackson when they brought six defenders.
How could the Ravens defense attack CJ Stroud & Texans offense?
As for the Texans’ C.J. Stroud, who has become a darling of the league as he and his team have continued to "shock the world," all the way to a divisional playoff game for the first time since 2019, the rookie can continue his superstar trajectory with a win to send his franchise to its first ever AFC title game.
Since the 25-9 week one loss to the Ravens, Stroud and the Texans have been through six different starting offensive line groups, lost a top receiving threat in Tank Dell for the season and have re-discovered who they are as an offense.
"After that, we kind of changed how we were approaching some things, how we were setting some things up, and the other part of it is in that game, I think we all got a really clear picture of what we were really good at as an offense and as specific individuals on the offense,” Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik said.
The Ravens disguise a lot of coverages and rushes. Stroud was sacked five times in that week one loss. The Ravens showed him multiple looks and different pressures, getting home by bringing at least five guys twice, six defenders just once and forcing Stroud outside of the pocket on multiple other occasions.
At times the Ravens showed that they were bringing six defenders on a rush but dropped two into coverage, only bringing four. They rushed Stroud with this look on a third-and-three in the first quarter forcing an incompletion. Former Texan Jadeveon Clowney was a free rusher off of the right edge and whiffed on Stroud, allowing him to get the ball out to Tank Dell on the sideline. The play was negated due to a holding call on Laremy Tunsil.
Other times, the Ravens would show just four rushers in their pre-snap set, but brought a fifth. On a fourth-and-one in the first quarter, Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen blitzed Stroud on the left edge. Stroud didn’t have much chance to even think about throwing the ball away.
“The deceptive looks definitely are a part of what we’re talking about, especially when we get to situational football,” Slowik said. “Making sure we have command of what’s going on there. Talking to the quarterback about when is the right time to maybe push it, and when is the right time where they’ve got us on this one and we’ve got to make sure we protect the team. I think there’s a balance there when you go against a really good defense like this.”
After taking 19 hits and 11 sacks within the first two weeks of the season in losses to both the Ravens and Colts and only completing 57 percent of his passes when blitzed 14 times by the Ravens week one, Stroud has been exceptional against the blitz, including this past weekend against the Browns, which boasted the league's best defense during the regular season. Stroud completed all five of his passes for 126 yards, including a touchdown against the Browns blitz.
While Stroud has struggled when pressured this season, he didn’t against the Browns defense. Pressured on 38.1 percent of his drop backs, Stroud completed six of his eight pass attempts for 110 yards, averaging 13.8 yards per attempt.
While the Ravens will dial up exotic looks pre-snap and try to pressure Stroud into some poor decisions, in attempt to make the rookie, who’s operated more like a seven-year veteran, look like a rookie, there’s one thing the Texans and Slowik are convinced of heading into Baltimore Saturday.
Stroud won’t be phased by the pressures of playing in the biggest game in franchise history.
“I would expect that to continue no matter where we play,” Slowik said. “He’s proven that big games don’t phase him. I wonder if his heart rate drops. He’s a special individual in that way.”