(SportsRadio 610) - In what’s expected to be the last game of Lovie Smith’s only season as the Texans’ coach, they’re playing at Indianapolis with a lot at stake.
Not the playoffs, of course. They were eliminated weeks ago.
If the Texans lose to the Colts, they’ll secure the first overall pick in the draft for the fourth time in franchise history and the first time since 2014 when they selected defensive end Jadeveon Clowney.
If the Texans upset the Colts, a 2 ½-point favorite, Chicago will get the first overall pick unless the Bears defeat Minnesota without injured quarterback Justin Fields, which isn’t likely.
Smith, who was a compromise hire after the Josh McCown fiasco, has guided the Texans to an NFL-worst 2-13-1 record, including a nine-game losing streak, after being promoted to head coach and retaining his duties as the defensive coordinator. David Culley was fired after one season and a 4-13 record.
Smith’s defense, featuring a lot of young players, has shown improvement. But his NFL-worst offense, led by coordinator Pep Hamilton, has been terrible. It’s been the coaches’ misfortune to lack sufficient talent on both sides of the ball, but there’s no excuse for being worse than last season, beginning with the 20-20 tie with the Colts in the first game of the season.
The performance of the Texans’ offense has been the primary reason the team has taken a step back. Quarterback Davis Mills entered the season with such high hopes after his impressive performance over the last five games of 2021, but he’s taken a huge step in the wrong direction.
Overall, the team’s quarterback picture with Mills, Jeff Driskel and Kyle Allen, has been muddled and out of focus. That’s why general manager Nick Caserio will enter his third offseason in desperate need of a franchise quarterback like Alabama’s Bryce Young or Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud.
The 2023 season will be a new era of Texans’ football, and there’s only one way to go for the new coach and quarterback. If the team doesn’t show substantial improvement next season, Caserio’s job should be in jeopardy. As it stands today, he’ll have 11 draft choices, including two picks in the first round. For the first time in several years, the Texans should have enough room under the salary cap for Caserio to sign a couple of expensive free agents to fill need positions.
To have their choice of every prospect in the draft, the Texans need to continue their losing ways at Lucas Oil Stadium, where they haven’t won since 2018. If they produce the same putrid performance as Sunday’s 31-3 loss to Jacksonville at NRG Stadium, the Texans should be guaranteed of losing.
There’s one problem, though.
The Colts are in a tailspin of their own. They’ve lost six consecutive games after a 4-5-1 start. Interim coach Jeff Saturday, who replaced the fired Frank Reich, is going to be out of a job next week and hoping ESPN brings him back as a studio analyst.
The Colts have been so bad lately they’ve been outscored 58-13 in their last two losses. They’re starting Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. He played at the University of Texas, and maybe he’ll come up with a sterling performance for all his family, friends and fans in the Austin area.
A factor in the Texans’ favor is they won’t have to face running back Jonathan Taylor again. He’s ravaged them in the last three games of this AFC South series – all Indianapolis victories or a tie. He’s on injured reserve, but the Colts are still 24th in rushing with 104.4 yards a game, better than the Texans ranking 31st with 88.6.
The Texans have the worst offense with 278.8 yards a game. They’re 30th in defense (378.4), including 32nd against the run (168.6) and 12th against the pass (209.8).
As bad as they’ve been under Saturday, the Colts’ defense is still better than what the Texans will put on the field. Indianapolis is 16th in defense (332.4), including 23rd against the run (128.1) and 10th against the pass (204.3).
Can the Texans move the ball against the Colts? Not likely. They haven’t been able to move the ball against anybody. They haven’t had a game in which they’ve netted more than 215 yards passing in seven weeks. During that time, they’ve accumulated at least 300 yards once.
This won’t be a Battle of Titans. It’ll be a Battle of Titanics. And only two cities care about the outcome – Houston and Chicago.
Mercifully, the Texans’ season ends Sunday afternoon, and next week, they can begin a new era they hope doesn’t become another error.
John McClain can be heard Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday on SportsRadio 610 and Monday and Thursday on Texans Radio. He writes three times a week and does three Houtopia Podcasts for SportsRadio610.com. He also can be read four times a week on GallerySports.com.