Buffalo, N.Y. (WBEN) - Don't expect to see much of incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Lee Zeldin in Buffalo and Western New York in the final days of campaigning leading up to the November 8 election.
The key to winning, the pundits say, is winning the vote in the New York metropolitan area, where Democrats can sew a victory and independent voters can be lured to turn an election.
What will happen on Election Day? Unless you're a Halloween sorcerer, you'll have to wait until the results are tallied as the race has closed to the point of being labeled a 'toss-up' and both candidates and their parties are pulling out all stops to line up a win.
"I think it’s a slim chance for Zeldin to win," said Republican political strategist Carl Calabrese on WBEN's Hardline Sunday. "Because of the deep blue nature of New York State," Calabrese noted.
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Both campaigns have had some heavy-hitters enter the campaign fray in the past couple days. Former President Barack Obama is featured in a new campaign commercial for Hochul, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was stumping for Zeldin.
Calabrese says both candidates will be focusing their efforts in the New York area, where Zeldin can hope to persuade independent voters to swing Republican and Hochul can work to ensure a heavy Democratic turnout in the city.
“They’ve got to put fear in the heart of Democrat voters that a Republican might get elected as governor of New York State," said Calabrese of what the Hochul camp needs to do in the final days of campaigning. In recent days, Hochul has been heard welcoming an 'underdog' status when asked about polls showing a closing race, and Calabrese says that's all part of motivating the Democratic base to turn out and vote.
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In all his years of watching New York politics, Calabrese can't recall a race where the top issue wasn't something economic and related to the economy. This campaign has seen crime move to the forefront and clearly the top issue in the race for the top spot in Albany. "Crime plays in Lee Zeldin’s favor."
Turnout in New York City is pivotal for Zeldin, says Calabrese. He would need low voter turnout in New York and about 33 percent of it in order to claim a victory.
In an average of the most recent polling tabulated by Real Clear Politics, Hochul has about a 7 point lead over Zeldin and the race is characterized as a 'toss up'.