It was a gloomy Sunday at Target Field. No, not the weather or the atmosphere of a summer day at the ballpark. It was just the Minnesota Twins' performance.
They were clobbered. A 15-2 loss to Baltimore means a sweep and a three-game losing streak as we hit the All Star break. The Twins limp there below .500 at 45-46, and a half-game behind Cleveland for first place in the AL Central. And yes, you can describe the AL Central as "baseball's worst division". By a mile.
Here are a few burning questions this team needs to answer if the playoffs, and playoff success, lies in their future.
Can They Find The Bats?
Sunday's blowout against the Orioles aside, the pitching has been really, really good. That was what most fans weren't sure about heading into the season and the Twins staff over-delivered. It's really the only reason the Twins are hanging in the hunt for the division.
That's because the performance at the plate has been poor and that might be putting it mildly.
The Twins are:
Hitting .232 as a team (25th in MLB), and that would be the lowest in team history. That's counting the era of the pitchers in the late '60s when nobody could hit.
They've struck out 916 times which by far leads the majors, and is on pace to obliterate the franchise record. In 1968, the famous "Year of the Pitcher" when runs were at a premium like no time in baseball history, the Twins struck out a total of 966 times. In 162 games.
The Twins are dead last in zone percentage, hitting balls in the strike zone. That means they swing and miss. A lot.
Twins are 24th in MLB in runs scored despite being 8th in home runs. They have really struggled getting runners home when they don't hit home runs.
If this is going to change, it needs to start with the team's big stars and Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey says they have to be more productive.
"At the end of the day guys need to perform better," says Falvey. "They know that. When I look at the top of our lineup, when I look at the key cogs of our offense, those guys are going to need to carry us. We've seen it at different junctures even the last couple of weeks when they have for us. I'm just saying that the reality is, we always talk about deadlines and who we potentially ways to add. The crux of it is, the bulk of our production comes from the 26 in that room."
Kepler is hitting .207, Buxton is hitting .202 and Correa is hitting .225. Nobody expects Joey Gallo to be Rod Carew but he's hitting just .186. It's all home runs for Buxton and Gallo, and nowhere near enough to justify those putrid averages.
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They signed Gallo in the offseason hoping he'd hit a pile of home runs despite striking out a lot. Well, he's struck out a lot (95 times). Larnach and Castro should start getting the bulk of the at-bats in left field.
Suddenly, the six-year, $200 million contract they gave Correa looks like a lot of money for not a lot of return. They desperately need him to find his game and hopefully spark the lineup.
Part of this is approach at the plate where the Twins value power over contact. But it's not working. In 40% of their games so far, they've scored two runs or less. That's horrible.
Fans have been loudly critical of trading Luis Arraez to Miami. Flirting with .400 over the half, he has now cooled off and is hitting .383 and leading MLB. Fine. Getting Pablo Lopez for Arraez is still a decent trade. If the Twins had Arraez hitting singles all over Target Field, are we confident the Twins other hitters could even drive him in?
Fans shouldn't expect the Twins' starting pitching to repeat the performance of the first 91 games. This staff was the best in the majors so far. That's not going to continue, right? They better start hitting.
"I don't know that you could really ask for leading the league in quality starts and ERA and everything else," says Falvey. "Credit to all those guys as a whole."
Are There Big Changes Coming That Might Help?
Not really. There are a few guys who probably deserve to play more and they should get Jorge Polanco back soon.
Polanco has been out with a sore hamstring but has started running the bases again pointing to a post-All Star rehab assignment in St. Paul. His bat should help. At least he's hitting .250 when he's played. There have been a few pitching injuries but nothing major.
The team has been relatively healthy, but Manager Rocco Baldelli still described the season so far as a grind.
"We definitely grinded through the first half in a lot of ways," says manager Rocco Baldelli. "We're sitting here right aroudn .500. Nothing easy or smooth about it, but that's part of our game. We still put ourselves in position to accomplish what we want to accomplish."
Despite that grind, and despite being below .500, Baldelli says he believes they can be better.
"I couldn't believe in our team any more, and I don't know any other way to say that," says Baldelli. "That's pretty straightfoward. We have not just ablility but character, leadership. Everything a manager wants to have in a roster we have it. So we should go out there and win."
As for potential trades, it's too early to know what will happen says Falvey. He says that talk will pick up later this week but there are too many teams still in the playoff hunt to make major moves.
"The trade stuff, with the draft going right now, tends to slow down a bit," Falvey said. "I think the league, just with preliminary conversations I've had with teams, a lot of teams have said we still need to figure out where we are, from a competetive standpoint. A lot more still figuring out where teams sit rather than engaging in any trade dialogue at this point."
Is This Baldelli's Last Stand?
If Baldelli believes there is enough here to win now, what happens if they don't?
Last year was a disappointment, but the front office was still confident enough in Baldelli to recently extend him through the 2025 season. But if they limp to the finish line again? Stay below .500 and drop the division to Cleveland? You have to think changes would be on the horizon.
The Twins have spent a lot of money including the big contract for Correa before the season and pitcher Pablo Lopez got $73.5 million during the season. Owners don't like spending a lot of money for middling results.
Baldelli took over in 2019, the Twins hit a pile of home runs and won 101 games before bowing out quickly in the playoffs. Not counting the 2020 COVID year, the Twins won 73 and 78 games. Another year out of the playoffs could be too much for them to take.
If it's not Baldelli, look for another change. The Yankees fired their hitting coach over the weekend. It wouldn't solve the Twins' issues at the plate, but sometimes change for the sake of change is what we see.
Beyond Baldelli, the Twins should answer every phone call for Gallo, Max Kepler, and anyone else not named Lopez, Buxton or Correa. Especially if they slump and fall behind the division lead after the All Star break. Falvey says this team is ready to listen to offers.
"Every year we have conversations about needs for this end, and needs for the other side," Falvey explains. "I think more teams being in it are going to seek more major league help for more major league help. We approach every deadline that way and sometimes it works out that way. Sometimes it doesn't. We're going to be open minded to just about everything."
Finally?
Right now, 2023 looks a lot like 2022. A fast start, and a slow descent towards the middle. They're fortunate to be in the AL Central or we'd already have to start talking about 2024. They'd be 7 games back in the AL West and 12 games back in the AL East. Half a game out of first? They have the 10th best record in the AL. There are only four teams worse.
The good news is the Twins start the post-All Star schedule at Oakland, who are by far the worst team in baseball. If they don't leave the Bay Area with a winning record and first place, it could be curtains for the Twins.
The numbers don't lie and the Twins being in contention for the postseason while having this record is a mirage.
Thanks to the AL Central we get to talk about the postseason. This franchise has the longest losing streak in postseason history (any major sport). They've lost 18 straight in the playoffs. This is not the team that is going to break that streak and it's starting to look like it might be a long march to another quick offseason unless they can turn it around.