Now that the NBA enters the last week of the regular season, the Timberwolves are eying the playoffs with the most likely outcome being the NBA Play-In Tournament.
The NBA Play-In Tournament first took place following the 2020-21 season so this is a new experience for the Timberwolves. The tournament was introduced by the NBA to give more teams the opportunity to compete for a playoff spot down the stretch of the regular season. It was also a way for the NBA to incentivize teams and avoid “tanking” for better draft positioning.
Currently, as of Monday, April 4, the Timberwolves are in seventh position in the Western Conference. They can finish no worse than seventh at this point. There is an outside chance they can jump up to sixth, or even 5th, which gets them out of the play-in tournament and fully into the 2022 playoffs.
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The Timberwolves have three games remaining, all at home (Tuesday vs. Washington, Thursday vs. San Antonio and Sunday vs. Chicago). They’re a one and a half games behind the Utah Jazz for 6th place and two games behind the Denver Nuggets. They hold the tiebreaker over Denver, but not over Utah.
If the Timberwolves win-out their last three games, they’ll need some help to move up. Utah has four remaining games, Denver three. They would need those teams to lose multiple games. Denver would have to lose two of three. Utah would have to lose three of four because of the tiebreaker over the Wolves.
Currently, the LA Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans, San Antonio Spurs, and LA Lakers are the only teams fighting for the other spots with the Clippers guaranteed eight at this point. The Lakers are in the most trouble at two games behind both the Spurs and Pelicans.
What teams participate in the play-in tournament?
There will be three total games involving four teams in each conference (East and West).
The teams that finish in the top six in each conference will be guaranteed playoff spots, while teams in seventh through 10th participate in the play-in.
What is the format of the play-in tournament?
Game 1: The team in seventh in the standings by winning percentage will host the eighth team, with the winner earning the seventh seed in the playoffs. The losing team gets another chance in Game 3.
Game 2: The ninth team will host the tenth team, with the winner moving on to Game 3. The loser is eliminated and enters the NBA draft lottery.
Game 3: The loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup will host the winner of the No. 9 vs. No. 10 matchup, with the victor grabbing the No. 8 seed in the postseason. The loser of Game 3 also enters the lottery.
That means the Timberwolves would be guaranteed two games, both at home, as the seventh seed. If they win game one, they’re the seventh seed in the playoffs. If they lose game one, and win game two, they’re the eight seed in the playoffs. If they lost both, the season would be over.
What comes after the play-in?
Once the play-in winners, seeded seventh and eighth, from each conference advance, the 2022 NBA playoffs will begin. Those games start on April 16.
What is the most likely scenario for the Timberwolves?
While finishing sixth (or fifth) is still the goal, the most likely situation for the Timberwolves is staying in seventh. That means game one would be at Target Center against the LA Clippers.
The Clippers recently got Paul George back from injury and are the team nobody really wants to play suddenly. While that would be a tough matchup, the Wolves have played extremely well at home. Since a bad stretch at home at the beginning of the season, the Wolves have been one of the NBA’s best home teams.
Since January, the Wolves are 15-3 at home.
Should they lose however, they would likely play either San Antonio or New Orleans. Both of those teams are over ten games below .500 which would make the Wolves a heavy favorite at home.
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