The Bruins have reached the All-Star break and are also just past the halfway point of the season, so now seems like a good time to take a step back and evaluate how things look for the second half.
Standings-wise, the Bruins are in good shape. While they still trail the Panthers, Maple Leafs and Lightning in the Atlantic Division -- and may not catch them, if we’re being completely honest -- they are firmly in the playoffs and appear to be in little danger of being caught. The eight-team Eastern Conference field is essentially set, with only seeding left to be determined.
With 55 points in 43 games on a 26-14-3 record, the Bruins are nine points ahead of ninth-place Detroit with three games in hand. Despite a few slip-ups over the last week, the Bruins enter the break with a 12-4-1 record since Jan. 1.
Now, as we look ahead, here are the five biggest questions facing the Bruins for the second half:
1. How does the goaltending situation play out?
Tuukka Rask returned. Jeremy Swayman got sent down to Providence. Then Rask struggled. Then he got sidelined by a lower-body injury -- possibly related to his hip surgery -- and hasn’t played since Jan. 24. Now Swayman is back, but he’s only played half a game since being recalled.
Meanwhile, Linus Ullmark is suddenly the workhorse in this whole situation, having started each of the last four games before the break. Since Nov. 20, Ullmark is 13-3-1 with a .916 save percentage. The wins are great. The overall save percentage is solid. His more advanced metrics like 5-on-5 save percentage, high-danger save percentage and goals saved above expected are still average to below-average.
Rask remains the biggest question here. Will he be healthy and ready to play again after the break? If he’s not, how long will it be until he is? And when he does play next, how long will it take to work out the kinks that have clearly been there during his first four starts?
Bruce Cassidy previously said it would take seven or eight starts before they could really evaluate where Rask is at. With this setback, you wonder if it’s now more than that. In the meantime, if Rask does miss more games, Swayman will surely get some starts. And if he plays well, the calls to keep him in Boston will only increase.
The Bruins have time to figure all this out and they have time to let Rask work through any issues, but at some point they will have to make some real decisions about which goalie(s) gives them the best chance to win as they get closer to the postseason.
2. What does Don Sweeney target in the trade market?
A No. 2 center or a top-four defenseman? Those are the two impact positions at the top of the Bruins’ wish list, but it will be difficult to address both.
Erik Haula has clicked nicely with Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak on the second line since the three were put together in early January. Whether he can continue to play well enough there that adding a No. 2 center is no longer a priority is very much in question. The Bruins have time before the March 21 trade deadline to let Haula answer those questions, but any drop-off would move the position back onto the front burner.
On defense, all the Bruins’ advanced stats are excellent. According to Natural Stat Trick, they rank first in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals against, shot attempts against, scoring chances against, and high-danger chances against.
Yet, there are still games -- including a few over this past week -- where they get too sloppy at the back, turn the puck over, and struggle to break out cleanly. Perhaps that can be fixed internally with more overall consistency.
Or perhaps the Bruins continue to search for another impact, all-around top-four defenseman and make that their pre-deadline priority. A left shot that fits that bill has remained “elusive,” as Cam Neely put it in the offseason, so it’s not surprising to see the Bruins occasionally linked to a player like Jakob Chychrun. It’s fair to wonder if the right side would be in play as well given some of Brandon Carlo’s struggles this season.
Regardless of which position Sweeney prioritizes, landing a premium player who can play high in the lineup won’t be cheap. The Bruins don’t want to deplete an already-thin prospect pool, but if they’re truly in win-now mode, they may have to.
3. Is the balanced top six here to stay?
The Bruins ranked 24th in the NHL in scoring before the December COVID pause with 2.69 goals per game. They rank ninth since the league’s return with 3.53 goals per game.
The biggest and most effective change has unquestionably been Cassidy’s lineup shakeup, most notably dropping Pastrnak down to the second line to play with Hall. Both have put their slow starts behind them, with the red-hot Pastrnak registering 14 goals and eight assists in the last 15 games and Hall averaging nearly a point per game since Jan. 1 (15 points in 17 games).
The new top line of Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and Craig Smith got off to an equally hot start early on in January, but has cooled off recently, with the three of them combining for just two goals in the last seven games. They’re still waiting for Smith, in particular, to find some offensive consistency, something he has had throughout his career but that has eluded him this year.
That line’s analytics are still excellent, though, as they rank first in both Corsi and expected goals-for percentage among all NHL lines that have played at least 100 5-on-5 minutes together. Those numbers have not dipped recently, so we wouldn’t expect them to stay cold for long.
It would seem to be a no-brainer for Cassidy to keep rolling with the more balanced top six for the foreseeable future. But the temptation to reunite Pastrnak with Marchand and Bergeron will always be there if one of the lines struggles. In fact, that was his first instinct when Haula went on the COVID list over the weekend. A trade could always change things, too. But for now, there’s no reason to mess with something that’s been working pretty well.
4. Does Jake DeBrusk actually get traded?
It’s now been a little over two months since DeBrusk went public with his trade request. Yet he remains a Bruin and remains an everyday player.
While Sweeney continues to explore any and all possible deals, he has yet to find a match that makes sense. Potential partners are reportedly wary of the financial commitment they would have to make to keep DeBrusk beyond this season. He will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights and a qualifying offer that would be $4.41 million.
In the meantime, DeBrusk has settled in as the left wing on a solid third line with Charlie Coyle and Oskar Steen. His offense has ticked up a little since Jan. 1, with seven points (2 goals, 5 assists) in 13 games. He has shown some good aggressiveness in taking pucks to the net and has generally been bringing an honest effort.
There have not been any signs of any further tension between DeBrusk and the Bruins, but there have also not been any signs of DeBrusk changing his mind. If he’s still a Bruin closer to the trade deadline, would the tension increase? Or would he be OK with playing out the season and helping the Bruins try to win?
Sweeney doesn’t want to give away a third-liner for nothing. If he can’t land something of value before March 21, DeBrusk staying through the end of the year is a very real possibility.
5. What are their best D pairs?
We already touched on the possibility of adding on defense via trade, which would obviously change this equation. Until or unless that happens, the Bruins will have to make the best of what they have. So far this season, there is one top-four combination that has worked pretty well and one that definitely didn’t.
The one that didn’t is what the Bruins used more earlier in the season, which was a top pair of Derek Forbort and Charlie McAvoy and a second pair of Matt Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo. The Bruins got outscored 12-3 at 5-on-5 with Forbort-McAvoy on the ice and 10-3 with Grzelcyk-Carlo on. Both were below 50% in Corsi and expected goals.
The look that has worked much better is what the Bruins have used more over the last couple months, which is Grzelcyk with McAvoy and Mike Reilly with Carlo. Grzelcyk-McAvoy has consistently been one of the best D pairs in the NHL for a couple years now, and that is the case once again. Among 120 NHL pairings that have played at least 150 5-on-5 minutes together, Grzelcyk-McAvoy ranks first in both Corsi-for percentage (62.6%) and expected goals-for percentage (69.3%). The Bruins have outscored opponents 22-9 in 297 minutes with them on the ice.
While less dominant and a little more mistake-prone, Reilly-Carlo has also generally been a success. The Bruins have outscored opponents 13-11 in 271 minutes with them on the ice. They’re at 55.3% Corsi for and 58.1% expected goals for.
The Bruins’ most common third pairing behind that top four has been Forbort with Connor Clifton. The numbers for them? Also pretty solid: 56.2% Corsi, 58.8% expected goals, 9-9 actual goals in 183 minutes.
One wild card now in the picture is Urho Vaakanainen, who has played well in 13 games since being called up in early January. He has brought some steady defensive play by (mostly) keeping things simple and clean. He has mostly played in the top four next to McAvoy (when Grzelcyk was in COVID protocol and then again when Grzelcyk missed two games due to injury) or Carlo (when Reilly was in COVID protocol).
With Grzelcyk and Reilly both back now, it’s unclear where Vaakanainen best fits in, if he still does. Cassidy recently moved Vaakanainen to the right side of the third pair next to Forbort, opting to keep him in the lineup over Clifton. That experiment was short-lived, however, as Vaakanainen was injured early in the second period Tuesday night when he got hit from behind by Seattle’s Yanni Gourde. We’ll have to wait and see if Vaakanainen gets cleared to return after the break.
(All stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey, NHL.com or Hockey Reference.)