In 2019, Xander Bogaerts signed a below-market value six-year extension to remain in Boston. In 2022, he opted out of that deal, became a free agent, and wanted something more in line with his market value. The Red Sox didn’t give it to him, and now he’s gone.
In 2017, David Pastrnak signed a below-market value six-year extension to remain in Boston. After this season, that contract expires, and all indications are that Pastrnak wants something more in line with his market value this time around. The Bruins…
Well, that part of the story hasn’t been written yet. So far, the Bruins and Pastrnak obviously have not found a number that works for both sides. There is still time for them to do so. But this week offered a cruel reminder of what can happen if they don’t find it before Pastrnak hits free agency.
The NHL and MLB are very different leagues, so it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison between Bogaerts and Pastrnak. No one is going to be able to swoop in and offer Pastrnak 11 years, for instance. The maximum he can sign for under the NHL’s collective bargaining agreement is eight years with the Bruins or seven with another team.
Nonetheless, the Bogaerts situation serves as a cautionary tale about what can happen if you don’t lock up your star, or even make a competitive offer to him, before he gets to the open market. All it takes is one team -- in this case, the Padres -- to go nuts and offer much more than anyone anticipated.
The Red Sox may have been very much in the right to not match San Diego's 11-year, $280 million offer, but what everyone is left to wonder is whether they could have gotten him for less than that had they offered more than six years and $160 million, which was reportedly their best offer. Could something like eight years, $210 million have been enough if they had offered that last spring or at any point during the season? We’ll never know.
We don’t know what the Bruins’ best offer to Pastrnak has been to this point, or if there’s even been a formal offer. It’s been a while since we’ve heard any sort of update, in part because it’s been radio silence from the Bruins’ front office in the month since the Mitchell Miller debacle.
One of the last updates we did get was from TSN’s Pierre LeBrun at the end of October, when he reported that there were “still some sizeable gaps in position” regarding what’s “fair $$$” and that negotiations could continue to be “a grind.”
We don’t know how big that gap was or whether it’s closed at all in the month and a half since that report. But let’s, for the sake of argument, take an educated guess that the Bruins’ starting point before the season may have been eight years, $9.5 million per year. That is the same exact deal the Bruins signed Charlie McAvoy to last year, and it’s the same exact deal Matthew Tkachuk signed with the Panthers in July. It would have been a perfectly reasonable starting point.
Starting point. Now, it would be shocking if that’s what Pastrnak signed for. While Tkachuk, who is having a great season, remains a pretty fair comparison for Pastrnak, other recent forward contracts would suggest that Tkachuk’s will quickly look like a discount, if it isn’t already. Here are some of those deals, with their point totals this season:
Matthew Tkachuk: 8 years, $9.5M AAV (13-24-37 in 25 games)
Johnny Gaudreau: 7 years, $9.75M AAV (9-19-28 in 26 games)
Jonathan Huberdeau: 8 years, $10.5M AAV (4-12-16 in 24 games)
Nathan MacKinnon: 8 years, $12.6M AAV (8-26-34 in 23 games)
Mathew Barzal: 8 years, $9.15M AAV (3-27-30 in 28 games)
After scoring again in Friday night’s loss to Arizona, Pastrnak has 19 goals and 18 assists for 37 points in 26 games. He is tied for fifth in the NHL in goals and tied for sixth in points. While the Bruins could point to Tkachuk as a comparison, Pastrnak’s camp could point to Gaudreau and Huberdeau and argue that he is playing better than them and deserves more than them.
Gaudreau and Huberdeau both out-produced Pastrnak by a wide margin last season, but we know that Pastrnak’s 2021-22 season was marred by personal tragedy, and he acknowledged that hockey was not a priority in the way it had been in the past. This season, he is once again showing what he can do when he’s healthy and in a better head space.
If the Bruins are not already in the $10.5-11 million AAV neighborhood with Pastrnak, they are probably going to have to get to at least that point to get something done before the end of the season. And it’s possible it may take even more than that if Pastrnak keeps producing the way he is.
If the Bruins don’t stretch a bit beyond their comfort zone, they risk letting Pastrnak get to the open market. And if that happens, it only takes one Padres-like team to say, “You know what, we’ll give Pastrnak something in the MacKinnon neighborhood” or “We’ll make Pastrnak the highest-paid player in the league.” Upping your offer to $11-11.5 million AAV at that point could be too little too late.
Maybe Pastrnak wants to test free agency no matter what, even if that’s not what he’s said publicly. If that’s the case, there’s not much the Bruins can do. They’re obviously not going to trade him during a season in which they’re clearly a Stanley Cup contender.
But allowing him to get to free agency without putting a truly competitive offer on the table first would leave Bruins fans as angry and confused as Red Sox fans are right now.
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