In case you missed it, the NHL came through with a true blockbuster trade late Friday night. The Calgary Flames sent Matthew Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers in exchange for Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, prospect Cole Schwindt and a first-round pick. That’s two of the top eight scorers in the NHL last season (Tkachuk and Huberdeau) switching places, with a very good defenseman (Weegar) involved as well.
The Panthers immediately signed Tkachuk, who was a restricted free agent, to an eight-year extension worth $9.5 million per year. Huberdeau and Weegar will both be unrestricted free agents after this season if the Flames can’t sign them to extensions.
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So, what does all this mean for the Bruins? At a team level, it means that one of the top teams in their division (the Panthers) is probably better set up for the long-term now -- if they didn’t think Huberdeau was going to re-sign -- but might have actually taken a small step back for this coming season. It also means both Tkachuk brothers are now in their division for many years to come, which can’t be fun to think about.
Perhaps more importantly, it could mean quite a bit for David Pastrnak. Tkachuk’s extension helps further clarify what Pastrnak’s next contract will look like, and the trade itself gives us an idea of what a Pastrnak trade could look like if it comes to that.
Let’s start with the contract, because that’s more straightforward. Just like the slew of big contracts for top defensemen last summer made Charlie McAvoy’s market clear, something similar is happening with elite wingers this summer.
We have now seen the following contracts all signed this offseason:
Matthew Tkachuk (24 years old): 8 years, $9.5 million AAV
Johnny Gaudreau (28): 7 years, $9.75M AAV
Filip Forsberg (27): 8 years, $8.5M AAV
Patrik Laine (24): 4 years, $8.7M AAV
To give us an idea of how Pastrnak, 26, and those four all stack up, here’s a look at their goals, points and WAR (Evolving-Hockey’s wins above replacement) over the last five seasons:
Pastrnak: 338 games, 181 goals, 381 points, 14.8 WAR
Tkachuk: 355 games, 139 goals, 334 points, 12.0 WAR
Gaudreau: 370 games, 137 goals, 405 points, 14.5 WAR
Forsberg: 302 games, 129 goals, 278 points, 9.7 WAR
Laine: 334 games, 140 goals, 263 points, 4.4 WAR
Laine is the clear outlier in terms of WAR, because he brings nothing to the table aside from being an elite finisher. WAR reflects the absence of defense and lack of chance creation for teammates.
Forsberg, while still a very good player, is a notch below as well. That leaves Tkachuk and Gaudreau as the best comparisons for Pastrnak. He can easily and justifiably ask for that $9.5-9.75 million average annual value. Add in the fact that McAvoy signed for eight years, $9.5 million AAV last year, and a Pastrnak extension that’s identical to McAvoy’s and Tkachuk’s makes all the sense in the world.
That is assuming Pastrnak wants to sign a long-term extension with the Bruins. It’s been nearly two weeks since Pastrnak, who is entering the final year of his deal, was first eligible for an extension. The fact that it hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t, though. McAvoy’s extension wasn’t finalized until just before opening night last year.
If Pastrnak gives the Bruins an indication that he doesn’t want to sign, though, they would have to think about trading him. Losing him for nothing next summer would be a tough pill to swallow.
Two star wingers got moved in this Flames-Panthers blockbuster, so it helps shed some light on what a trade involving a star like Pastrnak could look like. The question is, which star is Pastrnak: Tkachuk or Huberdeau?
The answer depends on whether Pastrnak would be willing to sign an extension with his new team. If he is, he’s Tkachuk, and the Bruins can demand a massive package along the lines of what the Flames got. That could mean multiple very good NHL players that help them remain in contention, although those players might be on expiring contracts. Or if the Bruins get bad news from Patrice Bergeron and/or David Krejci and decide to go the retool route, it could be multiple blue-chip prospects instead.
If Pastrnak doesn’t want to re-sign with his new team and is determined to test free agency, then he’s more like Huberdeau in this scenario. That’s still a very valuable piece in any trade, as evidenced by Huberdeau being the centerpiece to land Tkachuk. But it’s not as valuable as the player willing to extend with his new team, as evidenced by Huberdeau alone not being enough to land Tkachuk 1-for-1, despite their comparable production.
Either way, the Tkachuk-Huberdeau swap makes it clear that the Bruins could rightfully ask for a lot if they did have to go down the road of trading Pastrnak. For now, though, they would prefer to keep the focus on extending Pastrnak, and Tkachuk offers a blueprint there as well.
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