The Celtics have found their dance partner.
With the Miami Heat clinching a 112-91 victory over the Chicago Bulls in the Play-In Tournament on Friday night, the stage is set for the Celtics to face Miami in the postseason for the fourth time in the last five years.
True to their cockroach-like persistency, Miami overcame the Bulls despite the absence of key players Jimmy Butler (right MCL sprain) and Terry Rozier (neck). Notably, Miami never trailed.
Although the Celtics swept the season series 3-0, Miami has played Boston tough, aside from a 33-point blowout win in late January.
Game 1 is slated for Sunday afternoon at TD Garden, with tip-off scheduled for 1 o’clock.
Here are five initial thoughts on the Celtics-Heat first-round series:
Exorcise the demons
The origin of the “#DifferentHere” slogan can be traced back to the Celtics’ loss to the Heat in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals nearly 11 months ago.
“I sat there probably the whole second half of [Game 7], starting to think about [making changes],” Wyc Grousbeck told The Greg Hill Show in October.
“Then I took two days to let everything settle down and then went and met with Brad Stevens and Joe Mazzulla, and I just said we are not bringing back the same team. It’s been two seasons in a row of really good play but inconsistencies they showed in the Finals two years ago and then the Conference Finals last year. It just felt inconsistent, and I said I just want to change the mix.”
The Celtics haven’t forgotten the pain of watching Miami celebrate on the parquet as they punched their ticket to the NBA Finals 11 months ago. For the players who experienced that defeat firsthand, it’s personal. Jaylen Brown, for instance, has spoken openly about how that loss motivated him throughout the offseason.
What better way to embody the significance of the slogan, “#DifferentHere,” than by seeking redemption against the very team that catalyzed the transformative changes in the first place?
This matchup heightens Boston’s alertness and compels them to set the tone from the start, much like they did when facing the Brooklyn Nets in the 2022 playoffs. However, Miami’s current health situation does temper that excitement somewhat.
Nevertheless, this provides Boston with early motivation and the opportunity to boost morale.
Miami’s health
Over the last decade or so, the Celtics have often been plagued by untimely injuries heading into the postseason. However, as they enter the 2024 playoffs, Boston boasts the healthiest roster in a conference ravaged by injuries – with the Heat being no exception.
Miami started 36 different line-ups this season, the most in team history. Additionally, 18 different players have started at least one game this season, tying the second-most during a single season in franchise history.
The injury woes have been relentless for the Heat.
Jimmy Butler suffered a sprained MCL in Miami’s loss to Philadelphia Wednesday night, which is expected to keep him sidelined for several weeks, while Terry Rozier has missed the last six games due to neck spasms. Additionally, Josh Richardson had season-ending shoulder surgery in early March.
It’s no secret that the Heat aren’t the same team without Butler, particularly in the playoffs. Before Friday night’s win over the Bulls, Miami boasted a +214 point differential with Butler on the court, compared to a -89 point differential with him off. That’s a 303-point difference.
For a team that struggles to generate offense, averaging the fifth-fewest points in the league (110.1), ahead of just the Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Hornets, and Pistons – losing their leading scorer in Butler is a massive blow.
The Celtics undeniably possess a talent advantage, further highlighted by Miami’s current injury situation.
The Kristaps Porzingis effect
In the past, Miami’s diverse defense, featuring a blend of zone, man, and switching, has caused problems for Boston, especially evident in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. However, Porzingis – one of the league’s top zone-busters – and the Celtics have found solutions for everything Miami has thrown at them this season.
At 7-foot-2, Porzingis can shoot from anywhere on the floor, stretch the defense, post-up, excel as a screener, and contribute effectively around the rim, adding a new dimension to the Celtics’ offense.
In his three games against the Heat, Porzingis finished with 61 points on 57.1% shooting from the field and 50.0% from deep, with 22 rebounds, despite suffering injuries in two of those games.
While Erik Spoelstra is recognized as one of the top basketball minds globally, he has struggled to contain Porzingis. This Miami team undoubtedly influenced Brad Stevens’ decision to acquire Porzingis, and his importance to the Celtics will become even more apparent in this first-round matchup.
Stick to the plan
While “Mazzulla Ball” is often associated with a barrage of three-point attempts, its core is rooted in statistical analysis that exploits the finer details of the game, especially focusing on the margins that ultimately determine the outcome of each game.
“What it takes to win a playoff game is what it takes to win a regular season game,” Mazzulla said on Tuesday. “You’re not going to have an expectation as to how it’s going to go. That’s the most important thing – very similar to the regular season. We’ve done pretty much every adjustment possible. In the playoffs, obviously, the timing of that adjustment is a little bit different depending on the series and where you are at. But it comes down to the same thing. Can you do the most important details at the highest level of stress and physicality?”
As mentioned, the Celtics clearly have a talent advantage. However, giving inferior teams extra possessions through turnovers or offensive rebounds grants them a fighting chance, exploiting those margins. The Celtics witnessed this firsthand in last year’s Conference Finals.
The margins will be critical for the Celtics. It’s an area they’ve focused on all season long, resulting in 64 wins. Entering the postseason, Mazzulla and the Celtics seem to have the right mindset in that regard.
Things won’t unfold perfectly throughout a series. After all, Miami allowed just 108.4 points per game this season, the third-lowest in the NBA, and held opponents to under their season scoring averages in their last 23 games. There will be runs, deficits, and so forth. However, the Celtics will need to weather that storm and stay true to their philosophy.
Take care of business at home
This is a top priority throughout the entire postseason, but it all begins on Sunday. The Celtics have unnecessarily complicated their postseason journeys in the past two years due to their inability to capitalize on home-court advantage.
During their 2022 NBA Finals run, they were 6-6 at TD Garden. Last year, they regressed, going 5-11 at home. Three of their 11 home losses last season came against Miami in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Boston is the only team that has played over 10 home playoff games since 2022 with a losing record.
“Yeah, last year we weren’t good,” Al Horford said after practice on Tuesday. “This year feels different [with] the way we’ve been playing at home. But I just think we have an understanding that we have to come out and play and perform.”
“I feel like now we understand that we have to come out ready to go, and just because we’re here at the Garden, we’re not just going to win automatically,” Horford added. “And I think we’re aware of that, and we’ve done a better job of that this year.”
Given the Celtics’ impressive 37-4 home record this season, ranking as the third-most wins at the parquet in franchise history, with an average margin of victory of 15.2 points per game, and only one of those losses coming against an Eastern Conference team, hosting the first two games of every series at TD Garden should give the Celtics a significant edge. However, they haven’t necessarily earned that benefit of the doubt. Especially considering Miami’s 24-17 road record this season, which mirrors that of the Denver Nuggets.
It's worth noting that in the last five years, both in the regular season and the playoffs, the home team has lost 20 of the 29 games between the Celtics and the Heat.
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