Maybe the Celtics really are done. Maybe winning two games in a row against the Warriors is too much to ask. Maybe it’s not Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown’s time just yet.
Gary Washburn joins MFM to break down Game 5
With the Warriors now up 3-2 in the series, the most probable outcome, statistically, is that they will win their fourth championship in the last eight years, either Thursday night in Boston or Sunday night back home in San Francisco. In the previous 30 NBA Finals that were tied 2-2, the team that won Game 5 went on to win the series in 22 of them.
But when have these Celtics followed the probable path? When have they been predictable? If we’ve learned anything about them, it’s that they’re more likely to do the unexpected than the expected.
All season long, they have defied expectations -- mostly for better, but sometimes for worse. They were supposed to be better than last year’s 36-36 team, but instead they were actually worse through the first three months of this season -- 18-21 through Jan. 6.
They weren’t supposed to go from that to being the best team in the NBA over the final three months of the regular season, but that’s exactly what they did, climbing from 11th place in the Eastern Conference to second in the process.
They were supposed to try to avoid facing the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, but they didn’t. Facing Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the team that beat them in five games last year was supposed to be a massive challenge, but it wasn’t. The Celtics swept them this time around.
Losing Game 5 at home to the Bucks in the second round to fall behind 3-2 was the first sign that this team might not be championship-ready. Having to win an elimination game on the road against the defending champs could have been too tall a task, but it wasn’t. The Celtics won Game 6 in Milwaukee, then blew the Bucks out in Game 7.
Losing a closeout Game 6 at home in the Eastern Conference Finals was another moment that could have and maybe should have signaled the end for this team, especially since the Celtics had the lead with under five minutes to go. You don’t blow an opportunity like that on your home court and live to tell the tale, right? Except these Celtics did. They bounced back and won a tight Game 7 in Miami.
Not much has gone as expected in these Finals, either. Game 1 should’ve been the easiest to predict. Of course the better rested, more experienced Warriors were going to take a 1-0 lead playing at home. It certainly looked that way after a 38-point third quarter gave them a 12-point lead heading to the fourth. But then the Celtics answered with a 40-point fourth that stunned the Chase Center crowd and turned that 12-point deficit into a 12-point win.
The Celtics won that game despite Tatum shooting 3-of-17 from the field. The Warriors won Game 5 despite Steph Curry shooting 0-of-9 from three. The Celtics actually had a great third quarter in Game 5 after getting dominated in the third the rest of the series, but lost anyways.
The Celtics have actually shot better than the Warriors from three (41.0% to 35.6%), but trail in the series anyways. Tatum and Brown have been inefficient and turnover-prone, the Celtics’ bench has suddenly disappeared, and Curry has been lights-out in four of five games, and yet Boston still has a chance.
Maybe it’s all too much to overcome. If all or at least some of that doesn’t change very soon, it’ll be a Golden coronation. That certainly seems like the most likely outcome at this point.
Or maybe the Celtics will continue to surprise everyone, like they have all year, and find a way to cap off this unlikely journey with an unlikely finish.
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