We all know the pock-marks on the Patriots resume from the three post-Tom Brady seasons in New England.
Bill Belichick’s team has a 25-26 record since TB12 took his talents to Tampa.
Robert Kraft’s franchise missed the playoffs two of the last three years, with a losing record in each of those seasons. The one time it did see postseason action it was proven a true also-ran, getting blown out in Buffalo.
But this is the NFL. And this is July. January action is a realistic goal for just about all 32 teams in a league where the year-to-year turnover in the postseason is a constant change.
Yes, the Patriots play in a tough division, the AFC East arguably the best division in football. Yes, they have a lot to prove coming off a season in which coaching, overall talent and on-field execution were obvious issues.
But it’s a new season. New group of coaches and players.
A brand new hope hits the training camp practice fields behind Gillette Stadium starting this Wednesday morning. With that summer hope in mind, here are five optimistic reasons to believe the 2023 Patriots will be a playoff team!
5 – Coaching competency: From Belichick on down through his assistants, highlighted by Matt Patricia, the 2022 season was certainly one to forget on the sidelines in Foxborough. A team that has been as well coached as any in the NFL for more than two decades made too many mistakes across the board. That’s not supposed to be the Patriot way. That should be much improved with Bill O’Brien running the offense, Jerod Mayo even more entrenched on the defense and Joe Judge back as a significant voice on special teams, the one area he’s actually shown consistent ability to succeed in his career. That coaching stability in all three phases should allow the 71-year-old Belichick to get in where he fits in regarding game plans and in-game adjustments every week. Belichick picking his spots to contribute and impart his expertise while letting his competent assistants handle their specific areas should be a major improvement in New England.
4 – Safety: There are pretty high expectations for the Patriots’ defense in 2023 thanks to a roster that returns the bulk of its key contributors. One major missing piece will be Devin McCourty, but that doesn’t mean the safety position is in question. Quite the contrary, the spot may be the deepest and most versatile on the roster. Kyle Dugger is a rising stud in a contract year. Jabrill Peppers is back to lay the lumber with a year in the system and a year removed from his knee injury. Adrian Phillips is a key, veteran presence. Jalen Mills looks to slide into more of a free safety role, a spot more in line with his skill set. And rookie third-round pick Marte Mapu might be the most intriguing guy on the roster before he’s even stepped foot in game action. Put it all together and the safety spot has the potential to really make life tough on opposing offenses and quarterbacks. That’s important because the cornerback spot is very young and has plenty of questions it must answer.
In the modern “basketball on grass” NFL, New England has the bodies at safety to do a lot of different things at a high level. The group could have the kind of impact that impacts a potential postseason run, especially against the challenges that the schedule and impressive opposing offenses present.
3 – Mac Jones: The NFL is a quarterback league. It’s almost impossible for any team to achieve much success without at least competitive play at the position. If New England is to be in the playoff conversation come December and earn an extra game come January then Jones must be a big part of the positive picture. We all know his story of an impressive rookie season followed by a disastrous sophomore campaign. Jones must bring stability and leadership to the offense while making more plays than mistakes. It’s a make-or-break year in terms of his career arc, and his play could be a make-or-break factor in the Patriots postseason plan.
2 – Defensive front: The only thing higher than the level of expectations New England’s defense faces is the level of competition it will face. Opposing offenses will bring elite QBs and elite firepower each week. The group that will most need to combat that is the Matthew Judon-led front seven.
The Patriots have all the talent, potential and versatility across the defense front to be dominant. There’s enough beef to stop the run and more than enough athleticism to rush the passer. Judon is a Pro Bowl staple. Christian Barmore will be looking to live up to his scouting report more consistently. Josh Uche will be trying to prove his double-digit sacks over the second half of last season were not an aberration as he prepares to hit free agency next spring. Lawrence Guy and Deatrich Wise remain versatile, valuable veterans. The Patriots defensive front needs to be the foundation of the defense and the foundation of the game plan against the likes of Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and the rest. A big-time challenge for a group with big-time potential.
1 – Bill O’Brien: Kraft called the way the Patriots’ offense was run a year ago an “experiment.” A better description might be a disaster. Belichick’s decision to have Matt Patricia and Joe Judge run the offense after Josh McDaniels’ departure might have been a fireable offense for just about any other coach on the planet. It derailed the season and derailed Jones’ development. But it’s all water under the bridge. O’Brien brings stability, competency, experience, expertise and just about any other positive adjective you can think of to his role running the New England offense. Jones, Kendrick Bourne and others have already expressed their excitement and approval for the new coaching staff that also includes Adrian Klemm leading the offensive line. O’Brien has his challenges pulling the offense together despite some questions at tackle, limited running back depth and without a true No. 1 playmaker. But the veteran coach is more than proven and capable of doing the job. And that alone could be the difference for the Patriots in 2023.