1 – Mercifully, the 2024 Draft is now less than a month away!
Thanks to the Patriots’ unfamiliar spot in the top-5 selections given Robert Krafts’ team’s ugly record in Bill Belichick’s final fall, there has been focus on the No. 3 pick since long before the offseason even began.
Now, though, as March plays itself out the reality is beginning to hit.
April 25-27 the Patriots – led by the new-age collaboration between Eliot Wolf and Jerod Mayo – will go about their business on a draft that will unquestionably decide the short- and long-term future of the franchise in Foxborough.
As Mayo, Kraft and pretty much any and every person on the planet has acknowledged, New England’s priority, biggest need and focus has to be on the quarterback position. No disrespect, but Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe are barely the springtime present at the position, never mind the fall football future.
Whether your preference is Drake Maye (#TakeDrake) or Jayden Daniels and his bulbous viral elbow. Whether you, like some in town, have totally switched gears and suddenly want Michigan’s J.J. McCarty. Or even if you prefer a later QB option after taking a supposed safer supportive prospect at another position early or trading down to accumulate Danny Ainge-like capital.
Regardless of the details, getting a young, developmental QB with upside has to be the top priority heading into draft weekend.
The too-simple, too-obvious plan here is to stand Pats at No. 3 and take the best, most-favorite QB on the board. Ideally that’s Maye.
Acceptably that’s Daniels. Begrudgingly maybe that’s even McCarthy.
Leave 3 with a QB.
That’s the first step in the plan. But what about the rest of the draft? The rest of the picks? What else should be prioritized in New England by Wolf and Mayo? And in what order?
Glad you asked.
2 – Given what the Patriots did and did not do in free agency, the top draft priority after a quarterback has to be a left tackle. There simply isn’t a proven or maybe even capable body on the roster ready to step into that role. Right now the LT depth chart probably has to be filled by a little-known Red Sox starting pitcher from recent seasons named “TBD.”
The good news, as Mayo has noted, is that tackle is one of the talented, deep positions near the top of the draft. Sure Joe Alt is going to go in the top-10. But there could and should be starting caliber tackles on the board when the Patriots pick in the second round at No. 34. That position should be that pick. Waiting longer, as the depth among the higher end prospects fades, would make it less and less likely a plug-and-play capable left tackle arrives in New England.
Go QB and then LT.
3 – Once the new-age passer is in place and his blindside (unless it’s Michael Penix!) is protected, the next-most obvious need is a top target for him to throw to. Again, good news, this like most recent drafts is loaded with wide receiver prospects who’ll have a chance to be impact NFL playmakers from their very first day on a football field. No, the guy taken in the third round won’t be Marvin Harrison Jr. But he might be D.K. Metcalf. Or Puka Nacua. Or Tank Dell. Or one of the seemingly endless other young Day 2 or Day 3 receivers who’ve carved out impactful careers for themselves in the modern NFL. The Patriots need a higher end receiver. Recent history shows us you can get a higher end receiver in the middle of the draft. Well, isn’t this plan coming together nicely.
4 – So, if Wolf and Co. can pull of a QB-LT-WR trifecta in the first three picks of the draft – Is that all???!!!! -- and do so even moderately successfully then this is going to be one hell of a historic April in New England. But the needs go beyond those much-hyped and obvious top three and luckily so do the draft pick options. Next on our needs list would be cornerback, which some might even place at a slightly higher premium. Sure, Christian Gonzalez seemingly has a very bright future as the first-round pick a year ago, even if he proved himself over less than four football games as an impressive rookie. After that, though, there is little to put much faith in on the outside at cornerback. Jack Jones is long gone. J.C. Jackson, too. No higher-end vets were brought in during free agency. Marcus Jones (coming off injury) and Jonathan Jones are better suited for the inside. Adding a capable if developmental outside cornerback in the middle of the draft or higher has to be a significant consideration. At least it should be.
5 – By the time teams get to the latter parts of the draft, picks are often about developmental depth rather than filling more immediate holes. That’s probably true of the Patriots this spring. Next on our to-do list would be tight end. No, there aren’t a lot of impressive prospects at the position. Any pick might end up a second or third option at best, maybe even just a block-first guy. Right now the Patriots have solid veteran leadership atop the TE depth chart with Hunter Henry and free agent addition Austin Hooper. A young third option would be nice to throw into the mix, whether he’s a guy who’s going to get many throws or not. We learned in the not-too-distant past that failing to address the tight end position in the draft can lead to the need to overpay for the spot in free agency. Taking a shot on Day 3 tight end might avoid that costly path again.
6 – Similar to tight end, New England appears well stocked atop the running back position. Rhamondre Stevenson is the stud leader at the spot, a candidate for a contract extension at some point. And Antonio Gibson is a proven backup with upside as a pass-catcher. But Ezekiel Elliott remains a free agent and Kevin Harris hasn’t exactly take his limited opportunities and run with them. Given that Stevenson is playing out his rookie contract, finding a running back in this draft with potential to have a complementary role as a rookie and more upside than that down the road would be worth the minimal investment along the way at a position that isn’t exactly loaded this spring. In a league where running backs’ value has rebounded slightly, New England could be in the market on draft weekend.
7 – Finally, a more general and obvious talent target – good football players. Day 3 picks are made for guys who aren’t the most perfect prospects. Maybe they aren’t quite big enough. Or fast enough. Or have dealt with injury. Or don’t have an obvious role/position. But there are plenty of players across the country and across positions who just ooze feistiness. Guys who are obvious competitors. The kind with high motors and a higher will to prove themselves worthy of opportunities. Think of guys like Julian Edelman. Or Matthew Slater. Or Larry Izzo. Finding those guys helps elevate a draft class and fill out a team as it rebuilds and finds its way in terms of culture – on and of the field. Find good, competitive football players and then the coaches need to find ways to put them to use.
Happy Easter, everyone! And bring on the 2024 NFL Draft!