1 – Bill Belichick hasn’t always necessarily seen or acknowledged the greatness of Bills quarterback Josh Allen.
Back in December 2020 Belichick notably noted to ESPN’s Monday Night Football crew in a production meeting that he didn’t “buy into the Josh Allen craze” as an MVP candidate.
Seemingly since then, with Allen putting up one impressive performance after another against New England, Belichick has done his best to heap praise on the Buffalo leader.
That reached a new level this week when Belichick was asked about Allen’s development in his first three NFL seasons and a certain GOAT QB’s name was brought up by the New England coach.
“Just kind of like [Tom] Brady. Once Brady got to a certain point there in 2003, that's pretty much the way it was the rest of his career,” Belichick said. “It wasn't really like that in 2002. It wasn't like that in 2001. It certainly wasn't like that in 2000. Once he got to a certain point there about the midseason of the 2003 season and then the playoffs. From then on, it was his level of performance and play and consistency was at the very top of the league. Different style of play. Once those quarterbacks, usually when they get to that point, they're able to sustain it.”
While Brady’s name got most of the attention from Belichick’s comment regarding Allen, it may have been even more revealing that Belichick referred to him as one of “those quarterbacks.” The indication isn’t necessarily that he’s on Brady’s level, but that Allen is indeed an elite franchise QB, the kind that puts himself and his team near the top of the NFL on an annual basis. The kind that makes his team a Super Bowl contender. The kind that is a massive challenge for a defense, one the Patriots will have to face Sunday afternoon in Buffalo.
Is Josh Allen on Tom Brady’s level? Obviously not. But, as Belichick has learned the hard way struggling to even force him into a punt at times, Allen is indeed one of “those quarterbacks.”
2 – Allen might just be the most polarizing quarterback in the NFL right now. Physically he has the most unique combination of skills given his size, arm strength and running ability, a combination that draws memories of what John Elway brought to the Broncos for years.
Allen is capable on any given play in any given game of beating a defense in almost any given way. He can run over or around a defender. He can launch a rocket with his right arm that few can challenge. He can extend plays and even put touch on a pass when so inclined.
His 27 touchdown passes rank tied for third in the NFL. He has 13 rushing touchdowns. His 40 total TDs pace the NFL, the fourth straight season he’s hit that mark.
But he can also put the ball in harm’s way. His 15 interceptions are second in the league. Add in three fumbles and he’s accounted for 18 of Buffalo’s 24 giveaways.
Allen is a worthy MVP candidate who has the dangerous Bills fighting for playoff positioning yet again because as Belichick noted that’s what “those quarterbacks” do. But Allen isn’t without his critics, to say the least.
3 – Even though Bailey Zappe started a pair of games a year ago as a rookie and saw playing time in relief of Mac Jones earlier this year, it’s clear the second-year player is still very much finding his way as New England’s starting quarterback. He’s ridden highs and lows in recent weeks on the path to his 2-2 record as a starter. Primetime wins in Pittsburgh and Denver deserve praise. Getting shut out by the Chargers, not so much.
As Zappe settles into his role late this season, it seems he earns more rope to work with. He’s attempted more passes and completed more throws in each of his four starts in advance of the challenge he faces Sunday in Buffalo. He’s fine-tuning his reads and his decision making, which was evident on a throw-away early in the win in Denver that was certainly an upgrade on the interception he threw into traffic to Willie Gay in the loss to the Chiefs a week earlier.
Zappe is clearly still very much a work in progress, but there has been clear progress in his month of starts. What’s that mean for his future? What is his NFL upside? That’s still very much debatable. But the improvement he’s shown in a short period of time is at least notable, especially if it continues through the final two games of the 2023 season.
4 – Generally it’s the Jets seen as the Patriots hated rival in the AFC East. And certainly New England has had an at-times painful history with the Dolphins. But Zappe, David Andrews and other Patriots made it clear this week that there is plenty of rivalry emotion between Buffalo and New England.
“These two teams, these two organizations have been going at it for a long time. I don't think there's any – I don't think either one like each other very well,” Zappe said.
“Like I said these two teams of course don't like each other. It's a great rivalry so just got to go in there and play our brand of football.”
Part of the animosity comes from winning. New England went 33-4 against Buffalo from 2000-2019, including a 15-game winning streak at one point. But Buffalo has won six of the last eight meetings, including a blowout on Wild Card Weekend following the 2021 season. And not since Brady missed the 2008 season to injury has anyone other than the Patriots or Bills won the AFC East title, Buffalo taking the crown in each of the last three seasons.
5 – JuJu Smith-Schuster couldn’t have had much more of a disappointing first season in New England. The veteran free agent was brought in as the Patriots’ supposed No. 1 option, replacing Jakobi Meyers who was allowed to jump to the Raiders despite seemingly fitting in so well in Foxborough. Smith-Schuster was placed on IR this week with an ankle injury, ending his first season in New England with just 29 catches for 260 yards and one touchdown. Smith-Schuster currently ranks seventh on the team in catches, one spot ahead of fellow disappointment Mike Gesicki. Despite the expectation that Smith-Schuster would pace the Patriots passing attack, he hits IR ranked tied for 120th in the NFL in targets and tied for 129th in receptions. Meanwhile Meyers has a career-high seven touchdowns on his 62 catches for 690 yards in Las Vegas having his usual productive season.
Smith-Schuster is one of the many roster-building misses for Bill Belichick and Matt Groh this offseason that contributed greatly to the team’s struggle to win games.
6 – While Smith-Schuster and Gesicki are just a couple of the bigger disappointments in New England this season, there are certainly a handful of guys who have overachieved for the Patriots. Many of those are on the defensive side of the ball, including the likes of Jahlani Tavai and Mules Bryant.
Bryant has seen his playing time grow over each of his four seasons as a former undrafted player, to the point that he’s been on the field for 76 percent of defensive snaps this fall while starting a career-high seven of the 15 games he’s played. Bryant has been a versatile, impactful part of New England’s impressive defense to the tune of 76 tackles, a sack, an interception, two forced fumbles and seven tackles for a loss.
Belichick talked this week about the depth and flexibility Bryant gives the back end of the New England defense with his ability to play various cornerback and safety roles.
“It's nice to have a player like that,” Belichick said of Bryant’s unique versatility. “The problem is if you count on that and something were to happen to him, you don't have another player to replace that. Now, you have to go to multiple adjustments. But, when he's in there, which he has been, that really streamlines things a lot.”
7 – Prediction Time!: A lot has happened in both Buffalo and New England since the Patriots beat the Bills at Gillette Stadium back on Oct. 22. That game was probably New England’s best win of the season, including a Mac Jones-led comeback effort. Afterwards the Bills would lose three of their next five games to put their playoff hopes in jeopardy. And, obviously, Jones would go on to lose his starting job in the midst of the Patriots’ ensuing five-game losing streak. But now Buffalo has won three in a row to slide back into the No. 6 slot in the AFC playoff picture, while the Zappe-led Patriots have won two of their last three games, both on the road. Sunday afternoon in Buffalo the Bills are a two-touchdown favorite against a New England team that’s played competitive football since consecutive blowout losses to the Cowboys and Saints in early October. Buffalo is the better team with the better quarterback and offensive weapons, that’s for sure. James Cook has brought a new aspect to the Allen-led attack with his 1,000 yards rushing to go along with 40 catches out of the backfield. The Patriots are banged up in the back end of the defense with Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger questionable for the game even as Jalen Mills cleared concussion protocols late in the practice week. The Bills are one of just five NFL teams to rank in the top 10 in both offense and defense. They have notched 50 sacks on the season and Ed Oliver is a challenge for any offensive line. If Zappe can make good decisions and take care of the football as he did in Denver, New England might have a shot at the upset. But there is also a chance that the banged up defense faces a bigger challenge than what it’s dealt with in recent impressive performances. The guess here is that the defense runs out of gas a bit and Allen has a big day as he’s seemingly always motivated to do against Belichick’s unit. We’ll go with the 35-13 Bills' win as Buffalo looks to continue to pick up momentum heading into the postseason.
Thank you to MacFarlane Energy, a Mitsubishi Diamond Elite contractor, and the home heating oil and HVAC company that greater Boston and Cape Cod depend on at MacFarlaneEnergy.com.