According to ESPN, and writer Ben Linsey, the 2021 New England Patriots have the 18th-best roster in the NFL. Before we get into the how and why they came to the grade, let’s just step back and see this for what it means. It means there are 17 teams with better rosters, their roster is in the bottom half of the league, and only 14 teams have worse rosters. Considering that the NFL expanded to 14 playoff teams, were spots assigned based on roster talent and strength alone, the Patriots don’t have a postseason worthy roster.
Like Amy Poehler and Seth Myers used to say on “Saturday Night Live” on their Weekend Update segment: Really? REALLY?
Even with an uncharacteristically aggressive free agency overhaul where needs at multiple positions were addressed (and big checks were written)? Even after a draft that drew universal praise for addressing multiple needs while finding several value selections that could contribute in the immediate and near future? Even after a 2020 season where while finishing with a losing record the team did allow just the seventh-fewest points while amassing the fourth-most rushing yards? The best the 2021 Patriots could get was 18th out of 32? Really?
ESPN claims a combination of 2020 Pro Football Focus grades for players, 2020 PFF grades for college players now in the NFL, and overall statistics were used to formulate these roster rankings. And that’s fine. Numbers never lie, supposedly. But the games also aren’t played on paper (allow me the mulligan on that cliché). Look, I know I’m slightly biased (insert some sort of winking or smiling emoji). But I don’t feel my passion for the team disqualifies me from being a decent amateur evaluator of pro football talent. And I believe in my heart of Foxboro hearts that the 2021 Patriots, after all their roster tinkering and reconfiguring, have at least top half of the league talent.
A roster that comes in ranked in the back half of the league is just too low.
Though maybe coach Bill Belichick will use this ranking as extra motivation, postering the walls with the ESPN article. And quarterback Cam Newton will add this writer and the network to his list of haters he feeds off of. So perhaps there’s an immediate positive to this possible slight.
Let’s look at who’s ahead of the Patriots, shall we?
Some teams, like Tampa Bay at the top (hearty SIGH), are loaded. The Bucs are the reigning champs and basically returning all their starters on an incredibly well-rounded squad. Kansas City is still stacked, plus Mahomes makes up for a lot, and the Browns, ESPN’s third-best roster, truly have built one of the best all-around squads in the NFL (and this fan’s pick for one of the two teams to be in the next AFC title game). Of note, NFL.com recently assembled a list of the five best rosters headed into the 2021 season where Cleveland was number one. Spoiler Alert! The Pats weren’t one of them. And the Chargers were. Again, really?
Buffalo, Baltimore and Green Bay, at four through six, were all playoff winning teams and are expected to compete for a title again this season. And the Rams at seven have more than enough talent to make a run, especially with Matt Stafford under center. It’s after the top seven that things get disputable and debatable (but isn’t that why they make these lists in the first place?)
Cowboys, Vikings and Broncos at eight through 10? All three of those teams can score with the best of them, but this isn’t a fantasy draft. Each team has QB questions which could hold their offenses back, and I’d take this revamped Patriots defense easily over all three any given Sunday. Then it’s Niners, Football Team, Titans and Colts at 11-14. I’ll give San Francisco their due after an injury plagued 2020, but their secondary is nothing to write home about, if people still write home. Washington might be a talented squad on the rise, but a full six spots better than the Pats? I rue drafting N’Keal Harry over Terry McLaurin as much as the next guy, but come on now! The Titans were a playoff team that was ravaged by free agency and plagued by defensive issues all 2020, and Julio Jones can’t fix those. And Indianapolis is a solid team with young offensive talent and a new QB, but I’d hardly size their roster up against New England’s and say the Colts are much greater than.
Rounding out the teams ahead of the Pats are the Seahawks, Steelers and Saints at 15-17, respectively. Quite frankly Seattle’s defense stinks like fish heads at Pike Place Market, the Steelers are in decline (and Yinz know it!), and the Saints have question marks aplenty after the departure of Drew Brees. Another questionable trio of rosters ahead of the Patriots, begetting the argument that the Patriots could vault a few if not several spots ahead. Maybe not into the top 10, but certainly higher than 18.
As for the Patriots' talent? We know New England spent big to upgrade several position groups on their roster, had a great draft, returned several veterans from 2020 opt-outs, and actually had a few players worth roster spots already. This combination gives them top half of the league talent at running back, tight end, offensive line, linebacker and secondary for sure. Several of those groups feature breakout candidates like Damien Harris, Kyle Dugger, Mike Onwenu and Josh Uche. We’ll see if the rebuilt defensive line holds up, though early reports are positive. It’s quarterback and wide receiver that remain the biggest question marks for the 2021 squad. But each group was addressed and improved, and are their lingering issues enough to keep the entire roster’s talent in the back half of the league?
And we didn’t even mention special teams. Jake Bailey is a weapon, punt returner Gunner Olszewski is an All-Pro, Nick Folk (Big Kick Nick) was as clutch as they get in 2020, and Matthew Slater is the best special teamer in league history. Those who think special teams don’t matter much must not have watched a Patriots game under Bill Belichick.
Most sports books have the 2021 Patriots win total at 9, a number that would give them a winning record over the 17 game schedule. Perhaps the feeling nationally is the Patriots need to prove they’re back on the road to relevance after a sub-par 2020, and that the new guys and ascending talents will have to earn higher rankings like they will victories in a much improved AFC East and AFC overall this season. Fair enough. But as for whose team, question marks and all, I’d take to try and win a game this fall? Even without factoring in coaching, which the Patriots would certainly be tops in, I’d take this retooled and under-ranked New England squad over a number of other rosters ESPN thinks are better than the Pats. And I bet you would, too.
Really.
Related
