The reviews are in: Mac Jones was phenomenal in the Patriots’ one-point loss to the Dolphins in Week 1, he did nothing wrong, and will win more Super Bowls than Tom Brady.
Each side of the ongoing Jones debate paints the other side out to be way more entrenched in one side of the argument than anyone actually is. Level-headed folks understand that Jones performed well within the structure of the game plan. While there were a few throws he’d like to have back, no mistake of his necessarily lost the game.
Luckily for Jones, he will not - or should not - be tasked with performing within that specific structure of a game plan again this season. Digging into Jones’ Next Gen Stats, the combination of a high expected completion percentage (69.5%, 3rd-highest in the NFL) with a low aggressiveness rank (10.3%, 11th-lowest in the NFL) indicates that Jones threw a TON of low-risk passes - not that anyone who watched that game necessarily needed Next Gen Stats to tell them that.
The Jones detractors will point to that as a reason to condemn his performance. But the reality is that Jones faced a secondary the likes of which he likely won’t face until he literally plays the same secondary in Week 18. Miami’s defensive backs were great last year--the unit finished second in interception percentage - and in Week 1 the Patriots played around that strength, instead going a bit safer in the passing game while leaning on defense and the run game.
Jones’ average intended air yards--the yardage from the line of scrimmage to the yard line where the intended target is--was 6.3 yards on Sunday, the 6th-lowest mark in the NFL. That is why Jones’ astronomical 74.4% completion percentage isn’t wildly impressive like it would have been if he was throwing to or past the sticks more often. It’s unclear to the untrained eye if every pass was thrown to Jones’ first read, but his impressively brisk time to throw (6th-fastest in the NFL) indicates Jones processed what he was seeing at lightning speed.
After a preseason in which the Patriots receivers struggled to get separation against inferior secondaries than that of the Dolphins, it’s clear why this was the game plan Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick opted for. McDaniels called pass plays at the 13th-lowest clip in the NFL in Week 1, but Jones made the most of his opportunities. In fact, a separate version of this column featured the floating of a Brandin Cooks trade to aid Jones down the field. While that would still be a great move, it’s less necessary after Week 1 than it was heading into the preseason.
Patriots pass catchers certainly did not get separation on every play. But when they did, Jones found them. Jakobi Meyers averaged 4.6 yards of separation on nine targets, ninth-most among pass catchers in the NFL who saw at least five targets in Week 1. Jonnu Smith averaged 3.9 yards of separation on five targets, good for 20th in the NFL, and Nelson Agholor averaged 3.0 yards of separation on seven targets, 47th out of 87 eligible pass catchers in Week 1.
Not only will Jones not face a secondary like that of the Dolphins until he plays them again (Tampa Bay, Cleveland, and Buffalo could present issues), but he won’t be blitzed as much as he was in Week 1. Brian Flores blitzed at the second-highest rate in the NFL in Week 1. No one needs any Next Gen Stat or analytic to tell them that Mac performed well under that kind of pressure, in his first ever NFL start at that.
A coaching staff like that of the Patriots will not learn the wrong lesson from Jones’ stellar debut. McDaniels called only four play action passes that resulted in actual passes being thrown, versus 35 (!!!) non-play action passes. That’s a staggeringly low split for an offensive mind as celebrated as McDaniels, especially with a rookie quarterback he should be doing everything he possibly can to help.
Not only should the world’s lamest version of hypothetical training wheels come off Jones this Sunday against the NFL defense version of a literal walking boot, but Jones won’t be expected to win within the structure presented to him in Week 1 again this season. But he probably could.
@AndersenJA