Foxborough, Mass. (WGR 550) - The Buffalo Bills will be looking for their third win in 12 days when they face the New England Patriots on "Thursday Night Football" at Gillette Stadium.
In order to do that, here are my three keys, plus notes and stats:
1.) Josh Allen
Sounds pretty obvious, but the Bills quarterback has to play a big role in this game if they are going to win, and not just with his arm. Allen is, of course, a terrific runner, but the Bills have dialed that down lately, especially after his elbow injury back on Nov. 6.
Allen has had a lot of success both passing and running against the Patriots over his last four games against them, including last year’s Wild Card Round playoff game. Over that span, he's combined for 322 yards of total offense per-game and 13 touchdowns (all passing) with no interceptions.
Add to that the success other mobile quarterbacks have had against Bill Belichick defenses, including Lamar Jackson running for 107 yards and Justin Fields for 82 yards against the Patriots this season, and there should be opportunity for Allen to continue that trend.
2.) Red zone offense for both teams
The Bills offense has struggled in the red zone this season. They rank 19th in the NFL, converting only 53.49% of their drives into touchdowns once inside their opponent's 20-yard line.
Buffalo was much better last week against the Detroit Lions, going 3-for-4 in the red zone, but the one they didn’t convert ended with an Allen interception, wiping any points away.
The Patriots are having an even tougher time in the red zone, converting at only a 38.71% rate. The only team worse than that in the NFL is the Denver Broncos (37.50%).
The Bills, obviously, have to be better than what they have been and get touchdowns when knocking on the door. But they also need to make sure the Patriots don’t suddenly start turning around their own struggles inside the 20-yard line.
3.) Getting to and protecting the quarterback
The Bills will be without their star pass rusher Von Miller in this game, and also their franchise left tackle Dion Dawkins.
From an offensive perspective, that’s obviously not ideal going up against a Patriots defense that ranks second in the NFL with in sacks per-pass attempt at 10.25%, and also have Matthew Judon, who leads the NFL with 13 sacks.
However, New England also doesn’t protect their own quarterback very well, ranking 26th in the league, giving up sacks on 9.34% of their dropbacks. Without Miller, it will be more challenging for the Bills, but players like Greg Rousseau and AJ Epenesa from the edge and Ed Oliver from the interior may have chances to get home.
Whichever team protects their quarterback better may go a long way in determining who wins this game.
NOTES AND STATS:
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