The NFC South doesn't get much respect these days, but it just so happens to be a division with three 2-1 teams heading into Week 4. The question: How many (if any) of those teams are legit contenders this season?
We'll start to get an answer to that question at the Caesars Superdome this weekend, with both squads in position to make a statement. 3-1 feels miles from 2-2, particularly with the winning team also taking an important edge in potential tiebreakers. There are injury questions, because of course there are, and the team that navigates those the best will likely be the victor.
THE GAME | Bucs (2-1) at Saints (2-1)
- When: Noon, Sunday, Oct. 1
- Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
- TV: FOX
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
- Pregame: First Take with Steve Geller & Jeff Nowak, 8-10 a.m.; Countdown to Kickoff with Steve Geller & Bobby Hebert, 10-noon
With all that in mind, here are the top three things I've watching in a divisional showdown at the Dome.
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1. CARR PARKED?
If you'd asked me on Thursday, I'd have confidently told you this is Jameis Winston's week as Saints starting quarterback. Then Derek Carr went out and actually threw passes at Friday's practice.
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What initially seemed like a pure smokescreen suddenly became a real question. Derek Carr is allergic to missing games with injury, and he's clearly doing everything in his power to not let that happen in Week 4. But is it really necessary?
Last year in Week 2 the Saints found themselves in a VERY similar scenario with their starting QB. Jameis suffered a back injury against the Falcons. That time it was Andy Dalton as the backup QB. The Saints opted to let Jameis play through the injury, and things only got worse. He played one more week, then it was Dalton the rest of the way.
If the OL wasn't such a big question, I might feel differently ... but are you really confident he'll be able to go out there and avoid any major hits to that shoulder (particularly considering the defense knows what he'll be playing through)?
The Saints said they'd evaluate how Carr's shoulder responded to Friday's work before making a decision. If nothing else, they'll keep the Bucs defense guessing up until gametime.
Personally, as you might've guessed, I'd go with Jameis. You kept him in town for a reason. The coaching staff and players say they trust him. If that's true, there's no reason to take such a major risk in Week 4. Regardless, the QB decision will be the biggest thing to watch ... and after that, it'll be how much time he'll actually have to be a quarterback.
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AK'S IMPACT
Alvin Kamara, welcome back, we've missed you. Now ... exactly how much of this game can you affect?
The protection problems have been a near constant question for this team through the first three weeks. The Bucs have a stout front themselves, even as they battle some key injuries. If it's Carr under center, that protection is even more important. He can't be allowed to tee off on.
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So, beyond actually getting better, will Kamara's appearance at least keep defense's honest? I'd like to think it will. I've talked to multiple people in the locker room this week and they've said the same things: Defenses are forced to account for AK, regardless of where he lines up. That's true on every play. It's true for the entire game. Can that allow you to slow down the rush? Can that allow you to get the ball out quickly and allow him to make a play, whether it's on screens or just more traditionally in the passing game?
Heck, can he just run the ball effectively and take pass protection out of the equation entirely? If so, I really like the Saints chances this week. New Orleans has the better team. A lot has been made of the scoring metrics, but I actually don't think this offense is that far off. They're going to have to keep the quarterback upright for us to find out whether that's actually true.
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CAN BACKUPS DO IT AGAIN?
Last week it was Jordan Howden and Isaac Yiadom thrust into key roles due to the suspension of Marcus Maye and a hamstring injury to Paulson Adebo. Both guys held up as well as you could've hoped. The defense faltered late, but I wouldn't pin it on either of those guys.
This time? Adebo is still out, and Yiadom will get the nod again. But we won't get to see another stage in the development of the rookie Howden. He's out with a finger injury. So who will step up? My money is on Lonnie Johnson Jr., a player this coaching staff trusts immensely. They built their safety depth presciently, and it's showing now.
But much like last week, I expect the Bucs to go at Yiadom and Lonnie. Multiple players and coaches pointed to Lonnie's size/strength/speed combination as elite. DC Joe Woods described him as looking like a tight end and running like a wide receiver. He used that skillset to range deep for an interception against Jordan Love in Week 3. But as Tyrann Mathieu points to this week, safety is a do or die job. It's the last line of defense. A mistake there means 6 points and Baker Mayfield has no qualms about slinging it around the year. Watch that position closely.
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LAGNIAPPE
Where have the Saints TEs gone? Well, getting sucked into the pass protection equation is part of it, but even with that, 9 catches for 89 yards and a TD is a paltry sum through three games. Foster Moreau is questionable, but Juwan Johnson absolutely has to be a bigger part of the equation for this offense to hit its stride. ... Taysom Hill is expected to have his traditional role in the Saints offense, even if Derek Carr doesn't go. I like that decision, and it's the reason the Saints went out and signed Jake Luton off the Saints practice squad. What will be interesting will be if they have Luton as the emergency third QB to save a roster spot. ... Cesar Ruiz is going to miss this week as he works his way through the concussion protocol. The Saints opted to move James Hurst to RG with Andrus Peat taking over at his natural position of LG. That's a tough switch to make mid-game, so hopefully with a week of reps in his pocket he'll have a better chance for success. It also means we'll like have rookie Nick Saldiveri active for the first time this year. ... Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore is appointment viewing, and teammates say he always gets exceptionally locked in for this matchup. That said, Lattimore's ejection -- merited or not -- was a huge blow in last week's loss during what was a defensive battle. He knows that can't happen again, so watch Tyrann Mathieu. I have a feeling he'll be taking it upon himself to make sure that situation doesn't get out of hand (again).