It's an inevitability every offseason: The New Orleans Saints enter it with significant salary cap hurdles to clear, and the talking heads declare this to be the year they finally take it on the chin and fall to the background of free agency.
But every year another thing always seems to happen: The Saints figure it out through a combination of restructured contracts, extensions and maybe a choice cut or two, and they continue to be in the conversation as big names hit the market.
In 2022 that big name was Deshaun Watson, who ultimately landed with the Browns. This year it was Derek Carr, whom the Saints managed to land with a 4-year, $150 million deal that unsurprisingly sent some doom and gloom talking heads off the deep end. One such analyst was Nick Wright, who likened the situation to that of Ted Stepien trading away first-round draft picks repeatedly in the NBA, which spurred the Stepien rule, disallowing teams from trading first-rounders in consecutive seasons.
"Something like that is coming to the NFL in a few years," he said, "and it’s going to be because of what the Saints have done in the last few years."
The Saints are committed to being competitive, and each year they look to do that by maximizing their salary cap dollars where they can. As Wright goes on to point out, it really came to the forefront during the latter stages of Drew Brees' career with the team going all-in to extend their title window with the future hall-of-famer, and it hasn't relented. This year the bill to maneuver was about $60 million. The Saints have trimmed that number down to a bit over $25 million and have a week remaining -- and multiple contracts that can be reworked -- to be cap compliant by 3 p.m. on March 15.
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Thus, the rant of Nick Wright continues:
"They didn’t [win a title], though. He then retired. And now they’re running a team like they know the league is folding in a few years and none of the rest of us do," he continued, getting progressively more irate. "In 2021 they had $50 million in dead cap. Last year they had $44 million dead cap. This year, before free agency even starts, they’re going to be at $40 million because they have to release Jameis. It is an unsustainable way to run a team.
"You know why Michael Thomas thinks he’s coming back? Because he’s $13 million on the cap this year to play, and $26 million to be cut. How could that be? Because Michael Thomas according to Spotrac, you know what his cap hit next year is? It’s $59 million, which makes me think they are attempting to run some form of NFL salary cap Ponzi scheme that we can’t pick up on.
"But the reason that they have gotten worse record-wise each of the past 4 years, the reason they have won only one playoff game in the last 4 years, is because when 25% of your salary cap is allocated to players who aren’t on your team every single year, you don’t have enough talent. And to now do this with Carr, and make it so you’re going to be in this position each of the next 4 years, is insane."
There are a handful of leaps in logic there worth identifying, the first being the definition of a Ponzi scheme. How can it be a Ponzi scheme if everyone gets paid what they expect to be paid?
The second is a bit more complex, and it's the reason the Saints have taken a step back the past two seasons. Has the cap been a factor? Certainly, particularly when the global COVID pandemic threw a wrench into the league's coffers and caused an unexpected cap disruption. No season was affected more than 2021, when the team had to clear more than $100 million against the cap and had to make difficult decisions such as releasing WR Emmanuel Sanders and CB Janoris Jenkins.
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Fair point. The Saints have had their share of struggles in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, going 16-18 and narrowly missing the playoffs both seasons. Cap constraints played a role, but so did a handful of other factors. For one thing, Drew Brees retired. That counts for something, no?
For reference, the Patriots have gone 25-25 since the departure of Tom Brady prior to the 2020 season.
After 2021, Sean Payton retired. That counts for something, no?
In each of 2021 and 2022, Jameis Winston went into the season as the starting QB and suffered injuries that ultimately kept him off the field for a majority of the year. That counts for something, no?
A more cautionary approach to cap management wouldn't have changed any of those things.
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But the point I take the largest issue with: The assumption that the NFL has any issue with how the Saints are running.
The implication is that the Saints are simply delaying the inevitable by not doing what the Bucs are doing and projecting that they will start Kyle Trask next year, or doing what the Falcons have done the past several years. The Saints are bending over backwards to remain competitive, and sure, it might manifest to be short-sighted and to their detriment down the road, at some level. Saints GM Mickey Loomis has said multiple times that the team's goal is to "manage things back to the middle," and be more judicious with its cap resources.
But how far down the road? That's a good question. Still, possibly the most inaccurate line in the missive above is this: "They’re running a team like they know the league is folding in a few years and none of the rest of us do."
In reality it's the exact opposite. They're running things like a team that knows the salary cap will continue to climb every year. And that's a trend all talking heads should be aware of.
The NFL has a lot of things it should be worried about (player safety, officiating blunders, etc. etc.), a team doing everything it can to put the best possible roster on the field that it can isn't one of them. But hey, "salary cap Ponzi scheme" is fun to say, let's run with it.
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