The expectations for the Derek Carr era of the New Orleans Saints appear to be all over the map, but not in a bad way.
Las Vegas has pinned their over/under win total at 9.5, among the top NFC teams, and one NFL analyst has chosen New Orleans as his "Cinderella Team" of the 2023 season.
"The fact that Carr, who signed in New Orleans after being released by the Raiders, remains a polarizing figure among NFL observers is baffling to me," writes NFL.com columnist Adam Schein. "Over his nine NFL seasons, he's proven himself to be a stud. He's a leader. He's clutch. He's the king of the fourth-quarter comeback, with 28 of those so far in his career -- no one in the NFL has had more since he arrived in the NFL in 2014."
The methodology is simple. Take a quality defense and an offense with play-makers and add a top-end, veteran quarterback, and you have a recipe for success. In order to qualify to be Schein's Cinderella, you had to have missed the playoffs in the previous season (check), and you have to be outside the ranks of the likely Super Bowl contenders (check).
"In other words, I want the Cinderella team that makes you say, 'Yeah, I should've thought of that originally,' " he continues.
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His last five picks:
- 2017: Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6; 1st, AFC South; advanced to AFC Championship)
- 2018: Chicago Bears (12-4; 1st, NFC North; loss in WC round)
- 2019: Buffalo Bills (10-6; 2nd, AFC East; WC; loss in WC round)
- 2020: Arizona Cardinals (8-8; 3rd NFC West; started season 5-2)
- 2021: L.A. Chargers (9-8; 3rd, AFC West; missed playoffs with OT loss in Week 18)
- 2022: Miami Dolphins (9-8, 2nd AFC East; loss in WC round; started season 8-3)
Schein also points out that 6 of the Saints' 10 losses in 2022 came in one-score games. Having Carr, with his aforementioned clutch ability, under center would've likely made a big difference in that regard.
"The Saints finally have their post-Brees answer at the position," he continues. "They are going to take the wide-open NFC South in 2023 and win at least one home playoff game. And I wouldn't bat an eye if they reached the NFC title match."
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