It's a different type of scenario, but a familiar one for Saints fans regardless: The playoffs are in sight, but the home team needs a bit of help.
In past seasons it's been about tiebreaker scenarios at the top of the playoff field, with the Saints coming out on the short end seemingly every season. This time around it's at the fringe, with multiple teams battling for the final one or two spots.
First things first, here's how the standings shake out heading into Week 16 and with three games remaining:
Can't see the graphic below? Click here.
As you can see above, the Saints are in a tie at 7-7 with the Vikings and Eagles for the final Wild Card seed, but come out on the wrong end of the tiebreakers due to conference record. A full breakdown of the tiebreaker methodology can be seen here. But hey, it could be worse. In the AFC, there are four 7-7 teams (Raiders, Dolphins, Broncos and Browns) that also sit at 7-7, but that's only good for 3rd or 4th place in their respective divisions.
But back to the task at hand...
CAN THE SAINTS WIN THE NFC SOUTH?
The simple answer: Yes, they objectively can.
And it's actually about as simple as it could be following New Orleans' shutout victory in Week 15. It remains an incredibly narrow and unlikely path, but any chance is better than no chance.
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It's simple because it'd require the Saints to win out, with the Bucs losing their final three games. That'd plant both teams at 10-7, and the Saints would overtake the division lead with the head-to-head tiebreak.
Considering the Bucs just got shut out, lost Chris Godwin for the season to injury and appear like they'll be without Leonard Fournette the rest of the way, some struggles should be expected. But the biggest hurdle remains their schedule. With games left against the lowly Jets, and two others against the Panthers, it's hard to envision Tampa doesn't run into at least one win in three tries against a pair of last-place teams.
Still, it ain't over til it's over. And if the Saints can pull off the Houdini act to escape with a 5th consecutive NFC South title, they'd land no worse than the No. 4 seed and at least one home playoff game.
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THE WILD CARD SCENARIOS
EVERYONE WINS OUT
This is the simplest scenario and it's possible with zero head-to-head matchups between any of the teams currently sitting anywhere from No. 6-9 in the standings. But it's also the nightmare for Saints fans. The standings wouldn't change from where they sit in Week 16, at least not where the Saints need it to.
That combination of events would potentially lift the 49ers ahead of the Rams, but it'd be the Vikings who landed the final playoff spot, with the Eagles and Saints missing out due to the tiebreaker formula. The Saints would finish one game behind both for in-conference record and be eliminated. The tiebreaker would then shift to common games between the Vikings and Eagles, with Minnesota coming out ahead.
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SAINTS WIN OUT, EAGLES AND VIKINGS LOSE
This would be the cleanest scenario for the Saints to take a wild card spot, and even potentially move up as high as No. 5 based on how other teams finish. There a lot of variables here, so I'll just focus on getting in at this point.
In the end, it'd be pretty simple. Saints would be 10-7, while the Vikings and Eagles land at 9-8. Saints get in, the other two likely miss out, barring a collapse by the 49ers with two or three losses in their final three games.
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SAINTS, 49ERS & ONE OF VIKINGS/EAGLES WIN OUT
The important to remember is the Saints have much better odds in a three-way tiebreaker compared to head-to-head. If the Saints land in a tiebreaker straight-up with the Eagles with any record, they'll lose based on the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If it's the Vikings, the Saints would lose based on NFC record. If somehow the Saints landed in a solo tie with the 49ers, the tiebreaker would come down to where the 49ers picked up their loss. If it's the Rams, they'd finish at 6-6 in the NFC, and the Saints could take that tiebreaker with wins in Week 17 and 18 to finish at 7-5 in-conference. The Saints would also benefit from a 49ers loss to the Titans. The teams are currently tied in common games, meaning a loss there would put the 49ers behind the Saints if New Orleans wins in Week 18.
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SAINTS LOSE TO DOLPHINS
For the Saints to get into the playoffs, they really want to beat the Dolphins to have the best possible chance. But even with a loss, all would not technically be lost.
That's due to the influence on in-conference games when it comes to the tiebreaker formula. Should the Saints lose, they'd fall to 7-8, but not a ton would change beyond eliminating the cleanest entry scenario mentioned above. The Saints would need to beat the Panthers and Falcons in Weeks 17 and 18, and still need a loss from each of the Eagles and Vikings. If either of those teams won out, they'd get in, and it'd come down to whether the 49ers fell back to the pack to open up another potential route. That's another scenario with too many variables to suss out at this point.
But the key elements to consider is head-to-head matchups, NFC record and common games. Again, remember: If the Vikings lose and the Saints and Eagles finish in a tie, it'd be the Eagles landing out front with the H2H win. That'd also be true if both teams finish in a tie at 10-7, with neither of the Vikings or 49ers matching that record to force the three-way calculation.
All that said, for the Saints to have a legitimate chance, they really can't afford another loss to either of the Panthers or Falcons. It wouldn't eliminate them, but it'd make the amount of help they'd need very unlikely to get.
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A THREE-WAY TIE AT 9-8
This is where it gets a bit more confusing, if we end up here. The Saints are currently on the losing end of the three-way scenario as of Week 16, but that could change depending on where those losses come for each team.
If the Saints' loss comes to the Dolphins, that wouldn't impact NFC record and keep the Saints in the hunt. New Orleans currently has a 5-5 record in-conference, with Minnesota and Philadelphia both at 5-4, and needs to pick up a game to even that tiebreaker and force the next tiebreaker step. The good news is both teams have all NFC opponents left to play, so any loss would even that record in the scenario above.
The next tiebreaker would be common games between the three teams, with a minimum of four needed. The only opponents that each has played are the Cowboys and Panthers, so that tiebreaker can not be applied.
And that's where the Saints' odd season would actually come into their favor. Once you get past common games, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory. With wins over the Packers, Patriots and Bucs twice, the Saints have far and away the highest number in that metric at .551, compared the the Eagles at .371 and the Vikings at .439. If that scenario came to pass, the Saints would likely come out ahead. Things could get messy, though, if the Vikings beat each of the Rams and Packers, which would significantly improve their SOV. At that point it could come down to the final records of other teams to decide the final tiebreaker.
But keep in mind, the 9-8 scenario would also potentially bring Washington and the Falcons back into the mix. Those teams are sitting at 6-8, and would need the pack to fall one game closer to have a chance at the postseason. That's another scenario with too many variables to dive too much into at this point. It might feel odd to root for Washington, but with a head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, the Saints should be rooting for them down the stretch, particularly in what could be a pivotal matchup against the Eagles at home in Week 17.
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SAINTS LOSE TWO GAMES
Let's face it, at 8-9 the Saints probably wouldn't deserve to get into the playoffs ... but they'd have a chance. It'd require both of the Vikings and Eagles to match that record, with the Saints win coming against one of the Panthers or Falcons. If that scenario came to pass, the tiebreakers would break down similarly to how it would at 9-8.
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SO WHICH TEAMS SHOULD SAINTS FANS BE ROOTING FOR?
It's not all that complicated, considering that none of the teams in question have head-to-head matchups. Root for whatever team is facing the Eagles, Vikings and 49ers. and root for them. In the lists below, you should root for the teams that have been starred:
In Week 16 that's:
- *Rams at Vikings
- 49ers at *Titans
- *Giants at Eagles
As has been mentioned previously, despite the 49ers-Titans matchup not impacting NFC records, a loss anywhere would bring them back the pack and open up another playoff seed for a potential route. It also represents a common game between the Saints and 49ers should that come into play, so a 49ers loss there would be a very positive thing for the Saints' playoff hopes.
Another thing to watch for the rest of the way is strength of victory. As a rule of thumb, root for the teams the Saints have defeated. The better record those teams finish with, the better off the Saints will be if that tiebreaker ends up being applied. The exception is the Bucs, of course, whom the Saints want to lose out regardless.
Those games are as follows:
- *Jets at Jaguars
- Bills at *Patriots
- Bears at *Seahawks
- *Washington at Cowboys