The New Orleans Saints enter their Week 12 bye feeling like they've played three different seasons with one left to go.
The first came in Weeks 1-4, where the offense came out red hot, then a few games went awry, confidence started to fade and injuries began to mount. Next was Weeks 5-9, with backup QBs, more injuries, putrid offense and a head coach firing. Another mini-season played out the last two weeks under interim coach Darren Rizzi, a firebrand special teams savant who's gotten the team to buy in and feeling like it could still be something with six games remaining.
Got all that? Because we've got a long way to go.
With six games remaining I figure we could take a stroll down the positive lane of this 2024 season and lay out what all would have to happen for the Saints to actually find a way into the postseason. The odds aren't good, but the most exciting things happen when the odds aren't good. "Never tell me the odds." I think Han Solo said that. I'm still gonna tell you the Saints are getting about a 5% chance to make the playoffs heading into Week 12. Probably better odds than the Rebel Alliance had in Star Wars, if that makes you feel better.
Anyhow, let's do it...
First things first, let's break down where the Saints sit in the current NFC South standings:
- 1. Falcons (6-5), L2
- 2. Bucs (4-6), L4
- 3. Saints (4-7), W2
- 4. Panthers (3-7), W2
As you can see the top of the NFC South is in a complete free fall. The Falcons have now lost back-to-back games since getting to 6-3 and the Bucs have lost four in a row since climbing to 4-2.
It's hard to believe in a season with a 7-game losing streak the Saints are certainly not dead in the division race. Still, the Falcons own the keys the rest of the way. They currently hold a two-game lead over the Saints and have four wins in the NFC South. That means that the Falcons own the head-to-head tiebreaker (division record) despite splitting the head-to-head matchups.
The Falcons remaining schedule also has some very weak matchups (at Raiders, vs Giants, vs Panthers). If they only won those games they'd finish at 9-8. If they won a fourth game against one of the Commanders, Vikings or Chargers they'd get to 10 wins and the division would be theirs.
In the end what the Falcons do really doesn't matter. All the Saints can do is win their games and they don't play each other again, but it's worth keeping in mind that New Orleans doesn't control its own destiny in the division, even if it wins out.
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For now it makes more sense to watch the overall picture. This is how it's shaping up as of Week 11.
- 1. Lions (9-1) ... NFC North champ
- 2. Eagles (8-2) ... NFC East champ
- 3. Cardinals (6-4) ... NFC West champ
- 4. Falcons (6-5) ... NFC South champ
-- Wild Card
- 5. Vikings (8-2) ... 2nd NFC North
- 6. Packers (7-3) ... 3rd NFC North
- 7. Commanders (7-4) ... 2nd NFC East
-- In the hunt
- 8. Rams (5-5) ... 2nd in NFC West
- 9. Seahawks (5-5) ... 3rd in NFC West
- 10. 49ers (5-5) ... 4th in NFC West
- 11. Bucs (4-6) ... 2nd in NFC South
- 12. Bears (4-6) ... 4th in NFC North
- 13. Saints (4-7) ... 3rd in NFC South
- 14. Panthers (3-7) ... 4th in NFC South
- 15. Cowboys (3-7) ... 3rd in NFC East
- 16. Giants (2-8) ... 4th in NFC East
As you can see from the list above the Saints have a long way to go. They're much closer to the bottom of the standings than they are the top and the Commanders are currently sitting in the third and final wild card spot at 7-4. In order for the Saints to have any shot at the postseason they'd need one or more of the seven teams at the top to fall back. The Saints would also have to go 5-1 or 6-0 over the remainder of their schedule to have any kind of chance.
Is it likely? Absolutely not. Should you bet on it? Probably not. Is it possible? Sure, why not.
Much like in the NFC South race the Saints can't technically say they control their own destiny. There's a scenario where even if the Saints win out they finish outside the playoff picture at 10-7. That said, history is on their side. Over the last 10 years 32 teams have finished a season with 10 wins. Of those, 29 made the postseason bracket (90%).
It hasn't happened since the NFL expanded to include a third wild card team in 2021. The most recent team that saw it happen was the Dolphins a year earlier, missing out with a 10-6 record. The Jets also missed out with 10 wins in the 2015 season, and the Eagles did it the year before that. In all three cases they were the first team out of the field and would've made it under the current format.
So you're saying there's a chance? Again, yes. The Saints have games remaining against several of the teams they'll need to fall down the standings. All they can do is win the games ahead of them. Until they fail to do that hope still exists.
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SO WHAT DOES THE ROAD...
... actually look like? Let's break it down.
WEEK 12: bye
All things considered this is the perfect time for a bye week if the goal is to win out. You've gotten things pointed in the right direction and now you get to rest up for a stretch run. The Saints are finally getting healthy, at least so far as the pieces you expect to get back this season, and they're building confidence ahead. They'll get to sit back on Sunday and watch several of the teams they need to lose battle it out.
Here's a quick rooting guide for this weekend:
- Vikings (8-2) at Bears (4-6) ... root for the Bears, but this likely won't matter in the long run
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- Bucs (4-6) at Giants (2-8) ... root for the Giants, but the Saints already control their destiny against the Bucs
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- Cowboys (3-7) at Commanders (7-4) ... root for the Cowboys. I know this might offend some of your Cowboy-hating sensibilities, but for the Saints to have a shot they'll need these wild card teams to fall back to the field. It's hard to see the Cowboys beating anyone at this point, but the rooting interest doesn't require that kind of logical analysis.
...
- 49ers (5-5) at Packers (7-3) ... root for the 49ers. This is a bit conflicting because you're technically chasing both teams. I have a way better chance if the Packers start falling back to the field. I'll worry about the 49ers later.
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- Cardinals (6-4) at Seahawks (5-5) ... root for the Cardinals. This is honestly kind of a toss-up, but somebody has to win the NFC West and right now Arizona is the front-runner anyway. I'd rather have the Cardinals pull away a bit and see other teams getting eliminated from division races. A Seahawks win definitely wouldn't be the end of the world, it'd just mean more question marks out west.
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- Eagles (8-2) at Rams (5-5) ... root for the Eagles. This one is pretty straightforward. Not unlike the other bird team above, someone has to win the NFC East and for the Saints purposes there's no problem with the Eagles running away with it. The Rams have won four of five and I don't want them rolling into the Superdome with momentum in Week 12. I also wouldn't hate to see this be a physical game that leaves L.A. a little battered and bruised as they ship out west. Either way, the rooting interest is pretty clear.
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WEEK 13: Rams (5-5) at Saints, 3:05 p.m.
Rams last 3 games: W, Patriots 28-22; L, Dolphins 23-15; W/OT, Seahawks 26-20
If I had to rank these games on a scale of difficulty, this would be No. 2 only because it sets up in the Saints favor. I don't expect New Orleans will get a lot of love in the predictions ahead of this game based on how we saw them get taken for a ride in Week 16 of last year, and that game was admittedly ugly. But a few things worth noting. That was a Thursday game and the Saints played like a team that wasn't prepared after taking a trip across the country. Sometimes the schedule can lose you games, and I think those teams were a lot closer on even footing than that game made it look. This year the Saints get the rest advantage and they'll have more than enough time to come up with a plan, it'll come down to how they execute it. For that reason alone this game sets up as one the Saints should feel reasonably good about, despite both teams coming in with momentum.
The second detail I'll point to is that last year the Saints simply didn't handle the Rams' offensive scheme well. This time around the Saints have effectively the same scheme on offense, which means the defense spent all camp going against it. The Falcons team they've faced twice and for the most part shut down? That's led by Sean McVay understudy Zac Robinson.
Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp will get theirs, but I expect the Saints to have a lot more answers on defense. For the Saints to win they'll need to score, and that's my biggest question. Still, there's no Aaron Donald on this Rams defense anymore and I want to see the Saints dedicate themselves to physicality and running the ball like they did in Week 11. If they can, I like their chances and a win would really force people to start taking this team seriously.
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WEEK 14: Saints at Giants (2-8), noon
Giants last 3 games: L, Panthers 20-17; L, Commanders 27-22; L, Steelers 26-18
The Giants are in a tailspin and one of the only questions remaining is who gets the axe at the end of the year. They've officially pulled the plug on Daniel Jones. That means that, barring any more changes, the Saints will get yet another shot at Tommy DeVito, who was the talk of the town last season until the Saints treated him more or less like his Goodfellas namesake than a quarterback capable of winning games.
There'll be a cold weather element to deal with here, but assuming the Saints don't let the bottom fall out a week earlier this could be a game to kick off their longest winning streak since before the Dennis Allen era. This is a game the Saints should win, regardless.
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WEEK 15: Commanders (7-4) at Saints, noon
Commanders last 3 games: L, Eagles 26-18; L, Steelers 28-27; W, Giants 27-22
Washington is one of the best stories in the NFL this season and they got out to a roaring start with rookie QB Jayden Daniels and first-year head coach Dan Quinn. That said, they haven't been nearly as dominant as the record has made it look. They beat the Giants in Week 2 despite scoring zero touchdowns and allowing three. It's a game they lose if the Giants' kicker doesn't get hurt. It took a Hail Mary getting answered to beat the Bears a few weeks back.
They're now coming off back-to-back difficult losses to a pair of playoff teams, and they've got very favorable matchups ahead of the Saints as they host the Cowboys and Titans, then get a bye before heading to New Orleans.
Daniels will be a major concern for the Saints, particularly if the week off helps him move past a rib injury that's been nagging him lately. Maybe there's a rookie wall he hits late in the year? It's tough to say. There will also be a Marshon Lattimore revenge game narrative, assuming he gets on the field. The Saints traded Latt to the Commanders at the deadline, but he's missed the last two games with the same hamstring issue he was battling in New Orleans.
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WEEK 16: Saints at Packers (7-3), MNF, 7:15 p.m.
Packers last 3 games: W, Bears 20-19; L, Lions 24-14; W, Jaguars 30-27
When I said the Rams were the second toughest matchup earlier? That's because this game is on the schedule.
Prime time in Green Bay, Wisconsin two days before Christmas? I'm getting cold just thinking about it.
This kind of feels like the type of game that will be well worth the frozen misery if the Saints take care of business up to this point. If not, and the Saints are sitting at nine or 10 losses, eh, not so much.
Either way this will be a tough matchup and probably the most difficult one the schedule given the environmental circumstances. That said, having the Packers be the toughest matchup on your schedule means all six of your remaining games are winnable. The Packers are certainly a good team and Jordan Love just keeps getting better, but they needed a blocked field goal at the buzzer to beat the Bears last week. They also got taken down to the wire a few weeks earlier by a Jaguars team that's clearly let go of the rope. Josh Jacobs will be a load to stop for a team that's gotten gashed on the ground all year.
All I'm saying is that given the Saints' current circumstances I'd feel a lot differently if the hard games on this schedule included the true upper echelon teams.
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WEEK 17: Raiders (2-8) at Saints, noon
Raiders last 3 games: L, Dolphins 34-19; L, Bengals 41-24; L Chiefs 27-20
As I write this the Raiders have lost six consecutive games. The Saints know a thing or two about that kind of stretch. The difference is I don't think the head coach gets fired and I don't think the Raiders have the quarterback or the veteran leadership to turn things around.
Derek Carr will probably try to downplay it, but this will obviously be an emotional game for him. How could it not be? Hopefully the Saints can get to this point with the results still mattering.
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WEEK 18: Saints at Bucs (4-6)
Bucs last 3 games: L, 49ers 23-20; L/OT, Chiefs 30-24; L, Falcons 31-26
It's tough to know exactly where either team will be at this point, but Tampa has about as much reason to be frustrated about their season as the Saints. They've now lost four straight after a 4-2 start, and they've actually been playing well in the process despite their own avalanche of injuries.
Todd Bowles has built up more job equity than Dennis Allen had due to playoff trips each of the past two seasons, but the noise will get a lot louder if things don't turn around. He's a sub-.500 coach since taking over in 2022 (21-23) and has a career .423 winning percentage (47-64) as the lead guy. Interestingly, Bowles' first foray into NFL head coaching was an interim with the Dolphins in 2011, a staff that featured Darren Rizzi as special teams coordinator.
We'll have to wait and see the drama that this game includes, but the Saints can only hope that it means something. If it does, this isn't a terrible place for something good to happen. The Saints have had more success at Raymond James Stadium than at the Superdome over the past few years. The Saints are 5-1 over their last six trips into that building, with the only loss being a game they led 16-3 in the final five minutes. Last year in a game the Bucs needed to win to clinch the NFC South that week, the Saints dominated and won 23-13.
What happens this time? I don't know, but if the Saints end up in a scenario that they have to go on the road in Week 18 and win a game, that's where I want to be going.
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THE TAKEAWAYS
I get it. A lot of folks probably gave up on the season several weeks ago and aren't ready to get hurt again. If you see mowing the lawn as a more productive use of your Sunday afternoon, far be it from me to tell you otherwise.
But as I sit here in Week 12 and write this all out, the Saints still have a shot. That'll be the case next week, too -- and frankly it will be until they lose another game. A 6-0 finish is incredibly unlikely, but the Saints also aren't facing a murderer's row of competition. It's two games they should absolutely win, three tough games against wild card-caliber teams, and one game against a division opponent that's headed in the wrong direction. There's no title favorites in here. You're not going to have to upset the Bills or the Chiefs or the Ravens to get this done. You need to play good football against teams that the Saints should feel like they stack up pretty close with.
The Saints' mantra over this stretch will be: Let's go 1-0 six times. Sounds a lot more possible when you frame it that way.
From a fan perspective, I'm keeping it simple, too: Why not us?
We'll start to find out in Week 13. Enjoy the weekend.