The New Orleans Saints have arrived at the final two games of their 2023 schedule with something to play for.
Unfortunately that something could be turned into nothing, and the Saints don't have much say in it.
The Saints had a chance to win out and guarantee themselves a spot in the postseason, but an ugly loss to the Rams leaves them just one game behind the Bucs in the NFC South as well as the final wild card spot, but on the wrong side of most tiebreakers.
Here are the updated standings to know heading into Week 17, along with the final two games for all teams relevant to the Saints:
NFC South
1. Bucs (8-7) ... vs Saints, at Panthers
2. Falcons (7-8) ... at Bears, at Saints
3. Saints (7-8) ... at Bucs, vs Falcons
4. Panthers (2-13)
This is actually pretty straightforward for the Saints, even if it's not ideal. One more loss and the NFC South will be out of reach. It doesn't matter if that comes to the Bucs or the Falcons. If the Saints go 1-1 or 0-2 they'd finish in third and the question would only be which of the two teams ahead of them comes out in front.
But if the Saints went 2-0? That'd mean everything would come to whether the lowly Panthers can upset the Bucs in Week 18. If that happened, the Saints would have beaten the Falcons to take them out of equation. The Saints would finish 9-8 with the Bucs at 8-9 and the Falcons either 8-9 or 7-10.
If the Bucs go 1-1 with a win over the Panthers, the Saints would lose the tiebreaker (common games).
Related
Optimal? Absolutely not. Possible? Sure. The one positive you can point to is that in most cases, a team in contention for the No. 1 overall pick might not be putting its best foot forward in a Week 18 game. That won't apply in this matchup, with the Panthers set to ship their first-round pick to Chicago in the deal that allowed Carolina to draft Bryce Young. If anything that's incentive to go all-in for a feel-good win to close out the year. That means the question becomes whether the Panthers are capable of pulling off an upset? The answer is highly unlikely, but they did manage to hand Atlanta a stunning loss two weeks ago, then played the Packers down to the wire in a 33-30 loss in Week 16.
WILD CARD
1. 49ers (11-4)
2. Lions (11-4)
3. Eagles (11-4)
4. Bucs (8-7) ... vs Saints, at Panthers
5. Cowboys (10-5)
6. Rams (8-7) ... at Giants, at 49ers
7. Seahawks (8-7) ... vs Steelers, at Cardinals
--
8. Vikings (7-8) ... vs Packers, at Lions
9. Falcons (7-8) ... at Bears, at Saints
10. Packers (7-8) ... vs Vikings, at Bears
11. Saints (7-8) ... at Bucs, vs Falcons
So, for the sake of this process, let's assume the Bucs win the NFC South at 9-8 and the Saints also win their final two games to get to 9-8. There are some buckwild scenarios for the Saints at 8-9, but they're not worth the time to even go through.
With that in mind, know that the picture above doesn't look nearly as bad for the Saints as it actually is. The first thing to understand is that the Rams and Seahawks control everything right now. If either team wins out they're in the postseason, no questions asked.
If the Rams get to 9-8 they are assured either the 8 or 9 seed. The Seahawks would also be in trouble if they lose one of their remaining games, but not from the Saints. The Packers and Vikings would potentially be in line to steal that tiebreaker should they get to that spot.
Related
In summary: The Saints' only chance to win a wild card would be to finish 2-0 and hope that one of the Rams and/or Seahawks finish 0-2. An unlikely road based on the opposition, but for the sake of argument, let's take the trip
One of the few positives for the Saints' chances is that the Packers and Vikings face off, so only one can finish 9-8. Unfortunately for the Saints they'd lose both tiebreakers head-to-head. Still, if both the Rams and Seahawks close out at 8-9, the Saints would be guaranteed a spot with a 2-0 finish.
- Saints and Vikings finish 9-8 (Seahawks, Rams, Packers 8-9): Vikings (6) and Saints (7) take final two wild card spots
- Saints and Packers finish 9-8 (Seahawks, Rams, Vikings 8-9): Packers (6) and Saints (7) take final two wild card spots
Again, a narrow road, but one that exists. But what about a three-way tie?Here's how it'd break down if one of the Seahawks or Rams also finished with a 9-8 record.
- Seahawks, Saints, Packers all finish 9-8 (Rams and Vikings 8-9): Packers (6) and Seahawks (7) take the final two wild card spots
- Seahawks, Saints, Vikings all finish 9-8 (Rams and Packers 8-9): Vikings (6) and Seahawks (7) take final wild card spots
- Rams, Saints, Packers all finish 9-8 (Seahawks and Vikings 8-9): Packers (6) and Rams (7) take final two wild card spots
- Rams, Saints, Vikings all finish 9-8 (Seahawks and Packers 8-9): Vikings (6) and Rams (7) take final two wild card spots
The Saints would also miss out in scenarios where one of the Seahawks or Rams got to 10 wins, but with the 6/7 seeds flipped.
Related
So, long story short ... if you're trying to figure out how the Saints could potentially make the postseason, just assume they'll lose all tiebreakers. That rules out any scenario where there are three or more teams with a 9-8 record vying for the final two wild card spots. The only scenarios where the Saints could get in by wild card will be by finishing 9-8, while three or more of the Seahawks, Rams, Packers and Vikings finish 8-9.
Notes: We didn't dive into any scenarios where the Falcons finish 9-8, because that would involve the Saints going 8-9. While there are obviously 8-9 scenarios that could play out for the Saints in terms of tiebreakers, they are highly, highly unlikely and not work discussing at this stage.
...
The road the Saints have set for themselves, which has largely been paved by close losses to NFC opponents is what it is, and while certainly not ideal, all the team can do is try to get to Week 18 with a chance. For that to happen they'll have to travel to Tampa this week and knock off a Bucs team that's been playing as well as any team in the NFL, has won its past three games and just knocked off the Jags 30-12 in a must-win game.
Let's see it.