After weeks of complex three- and four-way tiebreaker scenarios that could potentially land the Saints in the postseason, when Week 18 arrives it'll be surprisingly simple.
The Saints did their part of the job, but with wins by the 49ers and Eagles, and a loss by the Vikings, only one route remains.
THE SCENARIOS
There will only be two games that really merit watching for Saints fans, and they both kick off at the same time. Those will be:
- Saints (8-8, 2nd NFC South) at Falcons (7-9, 3rd NFC South), 3:25 p.m.
- 49ers (9-7, 3rd NFC West) at Rams (12-4, 1st NFC West), 3:25 p.m.
A third matchup has some tangential importance, but fortunately for the Saints it also kicks off at the same time:
- Seahawks (6-10, 4th NFC West) at Cardinals (11-5, 2nd NFC West), 3:25 p.m.
A Cardinals loss would mean the Rams clinch the NFC West regardless of what they do, which would be relevant in terms of L.A. pushing for a win in Week 18, but because of the timing, they'll be unable to know in advance -- making it largely irrelevant. Rams will need a win to ensure they land the division title, and that's a good thing because of what we'll get into below.
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THE STANDINGS
As you can see above, the Saints are now the only remaining NFC team outside the current playoff field that remains in the hunt. The Falcons and Vikings were officially eliminated with losses in Week 17, but Atlanta could still play spoiler -- which is a role they'll assuredly have interest in, but it could cost them a few draft slots based on how the other results land.
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HOW THE SAINTS GET IN
As mentioned above, it's a simple road.
- Saints beat Falcons to finish 9-8 (7-5 vs NFC opponents)
- 49ers lose to Rams to finish 9-8 (6-6 vs NFC opponents)
There was a chance for complex tiebreakers here, but as the scenario has played out, they won't be necessary. The Saints and 49ers didn't play this season, which means the tiebreaker would shift to record vs conference opponents. With the results above, the Saints would finish a game better and get in as the No. 7 seed, earning the right to visit the Rams on Wild Card weekend.
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The result of Eagles-Cowboys, which has been shifted to Saturday, won't change anything for the Saints, though it could change the picture for the 49ers. Should the Saints, Eagles and 49ers all land at 9-8, San Francisco would be eliminated at the conference record stage, and the Eagles would slot in at No. 6 by virtue of a head-to-head win, with the Saints landing at No. 7.
Should the 49ers win they'd land at No. 6 regardless of what happens with Philadelphia by virtue of owning the head-to-head tiebreaker.
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WHO SHOULD YOU ROOT FOR?
That'd be the Saints, duh, and the Rams. Plain and simple.
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