Grinding through a 17-game regular season in the NFL isn't only about winning big games, it's also about timing your losses.
Case in point: The Green Bay Packers (8-2, 1st NFC North), the team now atop the NFC despite one of the most alarming season-opening losses in recent memory, a 38-3 blowout to the New Orleans Saints.
While there's still a long way to go, the Saints haven't shown capable of jumping up to catch Green Bay in the standings -- so that tiebreaker loss won't hurt unless things change significantly. The Packers' lone other loss came to the Kansas City Chiefs, an AFC team.
The same can't be said for the Arizona Cardinals (8-2, 1st NFC West). Without injured quarterback Kyler Murray, Arizona lost to the resurgent Carolina Panthers (5-5, 3rd NFC South) this week. Their lone other loss: Yes, it came to the Packers. Assuming it's a head-to-head tiebreaker and not a three-team situation, they're going to have to finish an entire game clear of Green Bay over the final 8 weeks of the season for a chance at the NFC's only bye. With Murray's status still up in the air for Week 11 and beyond with a lingering ankle injury, that mountain appears steep.
But while head-to-head and conference tiebreakers are important in the overall seeding, showing up in conference games is also vitally important. Just look at the Kansas City Chiefs (6-4, 1st AFC West), who now cling to the No. 4 seed in the AFC despite an appalling 2-4 start against conference opponents. Why? They showed up when it counted on Sunday Night Football against the Raiders. A loss would've sent them tumbling way down the standings, but a win has them securely in the playoff field with Patrick Mahomes and Co. appearing to get the ship headed in the correct direction.
It's a narrow margin, but one that I'd trust Mahomes to navigate.
That leads us to the New Orleans Saints (5-4, 2nd NFC South), who have possibly the strangest resume in the NFL. They own tiebreaker victories over two of the top four seeds in the Packers and Tampa Bay Bucs (6-3, 1st NFC South), but haven't won games against lesser teams that would have put them in position to take advantage of them.
Still, at 5-4 New Orleans is still in the playoff field and controls their own destiny to an extent, with a head-to-head matchup remaining against Tampa. And while a 4-3 record in NFC games leaves a bit to be desired, the Saints currently hold the top "strength of victory" total in the NFC. That could loom large should the tightly packed standings remain that way down the stretch.
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TOP TIEBREAKER GAMES IN WEEK 11
PACKERS (8-2, 1st NFC North) at Vikings (4-5, 2nd NFC North)
- WHY: If you're the Saints or the Cardinals, it's a prime opportunity to gain ground in the standings. It's also a pivotal game for the Vikings to put some heat under Green Bay in the division. A win and the Vikings are just two games out with another matchup and the first half of a key tiebreaker. A loss, and the Packers can probably start celebrating yet another division title.
COLTS (5-5, 2nd AFC South) at BILLS (6-3, 1st AFC East)
- WHY: Well, just look at the records. The Colts have already lost the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Titans, so every AFC matchup down the stretch will be vital. A loss in Week 11 could leave them in a very precarious situation as they fight for a wild card spot. The Bills, meanwhile, are attempting to stave off the Patriots in the AFC East. The Patriots have a winnable matchup against the Falcons on Thursday Night Football. A Pats win coupled with a Bills loss would potentially drop them from the playoff picture after a 4-1 start.
GIANTS (3-6, 4th NFC East) at BUCS (6-3, 1st NFC South)
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SAINTS (5-4, 2nd NFC South) at EAGLES (4-6, 2nd NFC East)
- WHY: The Giants only have three wins, but they retain some life due to the teams those wins are against. With victories over the Saints and Panthers, they hold the tiebreakers that could lessen the mountain they need to climb. But they can't afford many more losses before that conversation shifts. Conversely, the Bucs continue to hold the NFC South lead by the slimmest of margins after a loss to the Washington Football Team. Another NFC loss would drop them to 4-4. The Saints also have a pivotal matchup with the Eagles, with similar consequences on the line. A Saints win and a Bucs loss would put the Saints atop the division, while the opposite would solidify the Bucs' lead in the division and put the Saints in a very uncomfortably situation down the stretch.
NEED A BREAKDOWN OF THE NFL TIEBREAKERS? CLICK HERE.
* = wins tiebreaker for higher seed
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NFC | THE DIVISION LEADERS
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1. GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-2, 1st NFC North)
- DIVISION RECORD: 2-0
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 6-1
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Lions, at 49ers, at Bears, at Cardinals, vs Seahawks
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Saints
- NFC GAMES LEFT: at Vikings, vs Rams, vs Bears, vs Vikings, at Lions
- NOTES: Wins head-to-head tiebreaker over Cardinals
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2. ARIZONA CARDINALS (8-2, 1st NFC West)
- DIVISION RECORD: 3-0
- NFC RECORD: 4-2
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Rams, vs 49ers, at 49ers,
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs Packers, vs Panthers
- NFC GAMES LEFT: at Seahawks, at Bears, vs Rams, at Lions, at Cowboys, vs Seahawks
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3. DALLAS COWBOYS (6-2, 1st NFC East)
- DIVISION RECORD: 2-0
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 4-1
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Eagles, vs Panthers, vs Giants, at Vikings, vs Falcons
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Bucs
- NFC GAMES LEFT: at Saints, at Washington, at Giants, vs Washington, vs Cardinals, at Eagles
- NOTES: The Cowboys have little pressure behind them in the NFC East, multiple games clear of the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants and Washington Football Team.
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4. TAMPA BAY BUCS (6-3, 1st NFC South)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 4-3
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Cowboys, vs Falcons, at Eagles, vs Bears
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Saints, at Rams, at Washington
- NFC GAMES LEFT: vs Giants, at Falcons, vs Saints, at Panthers, vs Panthers
- NOTES: The Bucs are the No. 4 seed despite having a worse record than the L.A. Rams by virtue of currently being atop the NFC South.
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THE WILD CARDS
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5. L.A. RAMS (7-3, 2nd NFC West)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-2
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 5-2
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Bears, vs Bucs, at Seahawks, at Giants, vs Lions
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs Cardinals, at 49ers
- NFC GAMES LEFT: at Packers, at Cardinals, vs Seahawks, at Vikings, vs 49ers
- NOTES: Sitting behind the Bucs is a double-whammy, considering the Rams actually beat up on the Bucs earlier this season. But, hey, that's the value of winning the division, which they're in a tough spot to do having already lost the first matchup with the Cardinals this season.
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6. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-4, 2nd NFC South)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-2
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 4-3
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Packers, at Washington, at Seahawks, vs Bucs
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Panthers, vs Giants, vs Falcons
- NFC GAMES LEFT: at Eagles, vs Cowboys, at Bucs, vs Panthers, at Falcons
- NOTES: The Saints hold a pair of big tiebreaker results with wins over the Packers and Bucs, but their three NFC losses could sting down the stretch in other potential tiebreakers. Fortunately for the Saints, Tampa Bay has also struggled to keep the NFC race close. The Week 10 loss to the Titans, while frustrating, is a better scenario than a loss to an NFC team. The Saints are also positioned well in the “strength of victory” tiebreaker, should that come into play.
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7. CAROLINA PANTHERS (5-5, 3rd NFC South)
- DIVISION RECORD: 2-0
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 3-4
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Saints, at Falcons, at Cardinals
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Cowboys, vs Vikings, vs Giants
- NFC GAMES LEFT: vs Washington, vs Falcons, vs Bucs, at Saints, at Bucs
- NOTES: If you can't figure the Panthers out, join the club. After a 3-0 start and fall off a cliff, they've leveled out to sneak into the final wild card spot after 10 weeks.
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IN THE HUNT
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MINNESOTA VIKINGS (4-5, 2nd NFC North)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-0
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 3-2
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Seahawks, vs Lions, at Panthers
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Cardinals, vs Cowboys
- NFC GAMES LEFT: vs Packers, at 49ers, at Lions, at Bears, vs Rams, at Packers, vs Bears
- NOTES: The Vikings have a steep hill ahead of them, but have only played one game against divisional opponents to this point. With a 3-2 record in the NFC and a pair of games against the Packers left on the schedule, the runway to make up that ground is ahead of them.
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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-5, 3rd NFC West)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-3
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 4-4
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Lions, at Eagles, at Bears, vs Rams
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs Packers, vs Seahawks, at Cardinals, vs Cardinals
- NFC GAMES LEFT: vs Vikings, at Seahawks, vs Falcons, at Rams
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ATLANTA FALCONS (4-5, 4th NFC South)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-2
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 2-5
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Giants, at Saints
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs Eagles, at Bucs, vs Washington, vs Panthers, at Cowboys
- NFC GAMES LEFT: vs Bucs, at Panthers, at 49ers, vs Lions, vs Saints
- NOTES: The NFC South is as crowded as ever, with all four teams having no fewer than four wins, and none with more than six.
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-6, 2nd NFC East)
- DIVISION RECORD: 0-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 3-3
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Falcons, at Panthers, at Lions
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs 49ers, at Cowboys, vs Bucs
- KEY GAMES LEFT: vs Saints, at Giants, vs Washington, vs Giants, at Washington, vs Cowboys
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WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (3-6, 3rd NFC East)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-0
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 3-2
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Giants, at Falcons, vs Bucs
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs Saints, at Packers
- NFC GAMES LEFT: at Panthers, vs Seahawks, vs Cowboys, at Eagles, at Cowboys, vs Eagles, at Giants
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NEW YORK GIANTS (3-6, 3rd NFC East)
- DIVISION RECORD: 0-2
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 2-4
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Saints, vs Panthers
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Washington, vs Falcons, at Cowboys, vs Rams
- NFC GAMES LEFT: at Bucs, vs Eagles, vs Cowboys, at Eagles, at Bears, vs Washington
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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-6, 4th NFC West)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 1-4
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at 49ers
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Vikings, vs Rams, vs Saints, at Packers
- NFC GAMES LEFT: vs Cardinals, at Washington, vs 49ers, at Rams, vs Bears, vs Lions, at Cardinals
- NOTES: The Seahawks got Russell Wilson back, but not much worked in Week 10. This is looking like it could be a rare lost season out in Seattle.
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CHICAGO BEARS (3-6, 3rd NFC North)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 1-4
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Lions
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Rams, vs Packers, at Bucs, vs 49ers
- NFC GAMES LEFT: at Lions, vs Cardinals, at Packers, vs Vikings, at Seahawks, vs Giants, at Vikings
- NOTES: The Bears traded next year's first-round pick to the Giants, which appears like it could end up being a good one.
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THE LONGSHOTS (not yet eliminated, but getting close)
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- DETROIT LIONS (0-8-1, 4th NFC North)
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AFC | THE DIVISION LEADERS
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1. TENNESSEE TITANS (8-2, 1st AFC South)
- DIVISION RECORD: 3-0
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 5-1
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Colts, at Jaguars, vs Bills, vs Chiefs, at Colts
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Jets
- AFC GAMES LEFT: vs Texans, at Patriots, vs Jaguars, at Steelers, vs Dolphins, at Texans
- NOTES: No Derrick Henry? No problem. The Titans keep winning. The only blemish on their tiebreaker resume is a bizarre loss to the hapless Jets. But with a 3-0 start in the division that includes a pair of victories over the Colts, Tennessee will be nearly impossible to catch in the division race, and the AFC appears to be theirs for the taking, as well. .
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2. BUFFALO BILLS (6-3, 1st AFC East)
- DIVISION RECORD: 3-0
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 5-3
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Dolphins, vs Texans, at Chiefs, vs Dolphins, at Jets
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs Steelers, at Titans, at Jaguars
- AFC GAMES LEFT: vs Colts, vs Patriots, vs Jets
- NOTES: The Bills currently sit in the No. 2 slot, but they have a weak hold on it -- at best. Despite a perfect record in the division, they still haven't faced the Patriots, who sit just a half-game behind at 6-4.
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3. BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-3, 1st AFC North)
- DIVISION RECORD: 0-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 4-3
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Chiefs, at Broncos, vs Colts, vs Chargers
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Raiders, vs Bengals, at Dolphins
- AFC GAMES LEFT: vs Browns, at Steelers, at Browns, at Bengals, vs Steelers
- NOTES: The AFC South remains the tightest divisional race in the NFL, and it oddly has a team that's winless in the division sitting atop. A loss to the Dolphins was surprising to say the least. Did they provide a blueprint to defending Lamar Jackson?
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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-4, 1st AFC West)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 2-4
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Browns,
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Ravens, vs Chargers, vs Bills, at Titans
- AFC GAMES LEFT: at Raiders, vs Broncos, vs Raiders, at Chargers, vs Steelers, at Bengals, at Broncos
- NOTES: The Chiefs are 2-4 in the AFC, yet somehow currently sit in the No. 4 seed. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the NFL is weird.
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WILD CARDS
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5. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-3-1, 2nd AFC NORTH)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 3-2
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Bills, vs Broncos, at Browns
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs Raiders, vs Bengals
- AFC GAMES LEFT: at Chargers, at Bengals, vs Titans, at Chiefs, vs Browns, at Ravens
- NOTES: Do you know what this Steelers team is? Because it doesn't appear they do either. Still, with key victories over the Bills and Browns already, the Steelers are well positioned for a playoff run.
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6. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-4, 2nd AFC East)
- DIVISION RECORD: 2-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 5-1
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Jets, at Texans, vs Jets, at Chargers, vs Browns
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs Dolphins
- AFC GAMES LEFT: vs Titans, at Bills, at Colts, vs Bills, vs Jaguars, at Dolphins
- NOTES: The AFC East appeared to be the Bills' division to lose, but some uneven play has opened the door for New England. The pair of matchups between those two teams in the second half could hold the key to the division title.
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7. L.A. CHARGERS (5-4, 2nd AFC West)
- DIVISION RECORD: 2-0
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 3-2
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Chiefs, vs Raiders, vs Browns
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Ravens, vs Patriots
- AFC GAMES LEFT: vs Steelers, at Broncos, at Bengals, vs Chiefs, vs Texans, vs Broncos, at Raiders
- NOTES: The Chargers have a strong divisional record that's put them atop the AFC West, but the rest of their conference slate has been less kind. Still, wins over the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns could loom large down the stretch.
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IN THE HUNT
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LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (5-4, 3rd AFC West)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-2
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 4-2
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Ravens, at Steelers, vs Dolphins, at Broncos
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Chargers, vs Chiefs
- AFC GAMES LEFT: at Bengals, at Chiefs, at Browns, vs Broncos, at Colts, vs Chargers
- NOTES: The Raiders switched coaches mid-season but haven't missed much of their rhythm. They've lost just two conference games, but both were divisional matchups that leave them on the outside of the playoff field looking on after 10 weeks.
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CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-4, 3rd AFC North)
- DIVISION RECORD: 2-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 3-2
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Steelers, vs Jaguars, at Ravens
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Jets, vs Browns
- AFC GAMES LEFT: at Raiders, vs Steelers, vs Chargers, at Broncos, vs Ravens, vs Chiefs, at Browns
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INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-5, 2nd AFC South)
- DIVISION RECORD: 2-2
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 4-3
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Dolphins, vs Texans, vs Jets, vs Jaguars
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Titans, at Ravens, vs Titans
- AFC GAMES LEFT: at Bills, at Texans, vs Patriots, vs Raiders, at Jaguars
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CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-5, 4th AFC North)
- DIVISION RECORD: 1-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 3-4
- TIEBREAKER WINS: vs Texans, vs Broncos, at Bengals
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: at Chiefs, at Chargers, vs Steelers, at Patriots
- AFC GAMES LEFT: at Ravens, vs Ravens, vs Raiders, at Steelers, vs Bengals
- NOTES:
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DENVER BRONCOS (5-5, 4th AFC West)
- DIVISION RECORD: 0-1
- CONFERENCE RECORD: 2-4
- TIEBREAKER WINS: at Jaguars, vs Jets
- TIEBREAKER LOSSES: vs Ravens, at Steelers, vs Raiders, at Browns
- AFC GAMES LEFT: vs Chargers, at Chiefs, vs Bengals, at Raiders, at Chargers, vs Chiefs
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LONGSHOTS (very long)
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- MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-7, 3rd AFC East)
- N.Y. JETS (2-7, 4th AFC East)
- JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-7, 3rd AFC South)
- HOUSTON TEXANS (1-8, 4th AFC South)