Get familiar with the term "schedule loss," because it could be a major factor in the Saints' 2022 campaign.
With a trip to London and a late bye, rest and attrition could be a major element to how the first year of the Dennis Allen era plays out. For example: A jetlagged loss at home to an otherwise unimposing Seahawks team in Week 5 would be almost as tough to stomach as the collapse to the Giants in Week 4 of last season.
The COVID-driven Week 16 loss to the Dolphins, again at home, could be another example, as could the loss to the Falcons in Week 9 without Jameis Winston that came after taking a lead in the final minute. Wins in any of those games and the Saints would've made the playoffs. As we all saw, they did not. One game can be, and often is, the difference in making the postseason and getting an early start on vacation.
All that is to say: How the Saints manage travel, health and other elements throughout the season will go a long way in helping the 2022 season be a success. That means finding a way to limit the aforementioned schedule losses.
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And with that in mind, here's a quick breakdown and my predictions for each game of the 2022 season, starting with the familiar:
WEEK 1: Saints at Falcons, noon
- Series history: Falcons lead 54-42
- Last meeting: Saints 30, Falcons 20 (2021, Week 18)
- Notes: Atlanta will certainly be motivated for this game -- as well they should be -- and they've had a knack for sneaking up on New Orleans in at least one matchup seemingly every year. But I just don't see this being that type of game. It'll likely be Marcus Mariota under center, making for a potential matchup of the No. 1 and 2 overall selections in the 2015 NFL draft. But that's probably where the intrigue ends. Assuming both teams enter healthy, this should be an early season walkover to get the DA era started on the right foot, as well as a statement game for Jameis to announce he's back healthy with weapons that should scare people. A Marcus Maye suspension could make things a bit clunky on the back end, but a handful of big plays won't be enough for Atlanta to make much of a dent.
- Prediction: Saints 35, Falcons 16
- Saints record: 1-0
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WEEK 2: Bucs at Saints, noon
- Series history: Saints lead 39-22
- Last meeting: Saints 9, Bucs 0 (2021, Week 15)
- Notes: "How many times do we have to teach you this lesson, old man?" is what comes to mind whenever I see the Saints face off with Tom Brady these days, at least during the regular season. They've faced off in four regular season games since Brady took up shop in Tampa. It's resulted in four Saints wins by a combined score of 117-53. But that bizarre run of dominance is due to end, and much like he did in the 2020 postseason, I think this is the game Brady comes to New Orleans and sets the record straight (a bit). As noted above, Maye could be suspended due to a DUI incident and miss this game. Even if he doesn't, the Saints will be navigating significant changes on the back end of the defense, and this is not a matchup where you want to learning on the run. If the pass rush can harass Brady from the inside as it has in so many matchups, the Saints likely keep this close, but I'm definitely fading New Orleans in this one.
- Prediction: Bucs 31, Saints 24
- Saints record: 1-1
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Week 3: Saints at Panthers, noon
- Series history: Saints lead 29-26
- Last meeting: Saints 18, Panthers 10 (2021, Week 17)
- Notes: The Panthers enter the season very similarly to the Falcons. They've got a former No. 3 overall pick in the building that nobody seems to trust (Sam Darnold), they drafted a rookie who probably isn't ready to start (Matt Corral), and while they have some elite offensive weapons, there's simply not enough at key positions for this group to feel particularly imposing. Of course, as we saw last year in Week 2, that pass rush can wreck games and is difficult to account for with its variety of zone blitz schemes, but I think that was a "fool me once, shame on me" scenario. It'll be a trial by fire for Trevor Penning on the left side, but I think he holds up in a low-scoring game.
- Prediction: Saints 21, Panthers 13
- Saints record: 2-1
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WEEK 4: Vikings vs Saints, 8:30 a.m. (London)
- Series history: Vikings lead 23-13
- Last meeting: Saints 52, Vikings 33 (2020, Week 16)
- Notes: As we all know, this game is taking place across the pond at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. And one thing that's been clear about London games: If a good NFL team is like a well-oiled machine, a road game in London is like dumping a bucket of dirt, chicken bones and Mardi Gras beads into that machine and saying "let's see what happens." Because of that, it often seems to be the better defensive group that takes the day, and that's the trend I'll be banking on here. The Saints defense, particularly the pass rush, can be fearsome when all its pieces are available. With a new training staff hoping to get a bit more consistency in injury prevention, they'll be hoping that's the case more often that not. I like to call Kirk Cousins "Mr. League Average," can you guess why? Even with Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook ripping off the occasional big gain, this will be a field goal game and the Saints come out ahead.
- Prediction: Saints 13, Vikings 9
- Saints record: 3-1
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WEEK 5: Seahawks at Saints, noon
- Series history: Saints lead 9-8
- Last meeting: Saints 13, Seahawks 10 (2021, Week 7)
- Notes: Remember when we talked about schedule losses above? This would be the first real case for that to happen. The Seahawks are far from an imposing team, and in a vacuum the Saints should be heavy favorites at home. But how much will jetlag and an impacted work week limit the Saints in terms of energy, availability and execution? In the end, Drew Lock on the road simply doesn't scare me enough. We saw what the Saints were able to do in the driving rain last year in Seattle. I think adrenaline alone will be enough to get New Orleans through this matchup -- which is good, because it doesn't get any easier from here. Starting 4-1 feels essential with what's to come.
- Prediction: Saints 21, Seahawks 17
- Saints record: 4-1
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WEEK 6: Bengals at Saints, noon
- Series history: tied 7-7
- Last meeting: Saints 51, Bengals 14 (2018, Week 10)
- Notes: If Week 5 was an adrenaline rush, Week 6 could probably be called an adrenaline collapse. Because try-hard simply won't be enough against the fighting Joe Burrows and the dynamic Cincinnati offense. That 4-1 start was vital, because this feels like a loss any way you slice it, and I have a feeling it'll end up being some catharsis for that 37-point beatdown the Saints handed out the last time these teams faced off.
- Prediction: Bengals 41, Saints 23
- Record: 4-2
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WEEK 7: Saints at Cardinals, 7:15 p.m. (TNF)
- Series history: Saints lead 16-15
- Last meeting: Saints 31, Cardinals 9 (2019, Week 8)
- Notes: Remember that schedule loss the Saints avoided in Week 5? Well, it arrived all the same. A battered and bruised Saints team now goes on the road with a short week. They need the rest, but they won't get it in time to save a loss to a Cardinals team that always seems to play much better in the first half of the season than it does at the end. Kyler Murray will run the Saints ragged, and DeAndre Hopkins will be returning from his 6-game suspension. The Saints offense won't have enough firepower to keep up.
- Prediction: Cardinals 34, Saints 28
- Saints record: 4-3
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WEEK 8: Raiders at Saints, noon
- Series history: Raiders lead 7-6
- Last meeting: Raiders 34, Saints 24 (2020, Week 2)
- Notes: Finally, a week where I can stop hammering the idea of rest days. Well, at least in a negative way. Because this is finally the week the Saints land on the right side of it. One of the few perks of a Thursday Night matchup are the extra days on the back end, and those could prove crucial here before a home showdown with a Raiders team that will gladly beat you up in the trenches with a wrecking ball in Josh Jacobs and big TE Darren Waller. Derek Carr, not unlike Drew Brees of old, gets the ball out on time and on target to limit the rush, and the Saints will need their offense to make hay to take this one home. But I think that’s exactly what will happen, with the combination of Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara using some extra practice time – assuming they’re all there and healthy – to begin to shine. In the end, I think the Saints get it done.
- Prediction: Saints 34, Raiders 17
- Saints record: 5-3
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WEEK 9: Ravens at Saints, 7:15 p.m. (MNF)
- Series history: Ravens lead 5-2
- Last meeting: Saints 24, Ravens 23 (2018, Week 7)
- Notes: The Saints hate to yo-yo between wins and losses, but man ... this is a stretch where that would feel like a positive result. It’s why starting 4-1 felt essential, because as we all saw in the 2021 season, one long losing streak kill a season fast. In this matchup, the Saints will see a mobile quarterback, read/option scheme they’ve struggled to defend time after time. Whether it’s Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, or even Daniel Jones and the Giants, it’s just not something the Saints do particularly well. I think that continues to bite them here.
- Prediction: Ravens 24, Saints 23
- Saints record: 5-4
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WEEK 10: Saints at Steelers, noon
- Series history: Saints lead 9-7
- Last meeting: Saints 31, Steelers 28 (2018, Week 16)
- Notes: Here’s where one of the more bizarre Saints trends continues: This is suddenly a team that plays better on the road than it does at home. Actually, scratch that – this is a team that just doesn’t beat itself on the road, and when you do that good things tend to happen. Whether it’s a comfort thing, whether it’s a locked-in thing, I’m gambling that’s not simply a Sean Payton effect. This is Dennis Allen’s group now, and that defense in particular always seems to shine away from the confines of the Caesars Superdome. Whether it’s Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett under center, I’d guess it’s the latter by this point, it’ll be a long day against a group that should really be hitting its stride by this point in the season. I'd expect this game to go similarly to what we saw against Zach Wilson in New York last season.
- Prediction: Saints 28, Steelers 9
- Saints record: 6-4
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WEEK 11: Rams at Saints, noon
- Series history: Rams lead 43-34
- Last meeting: Rams 27, Saints 9 (2019, Week 2)
- Notes: The reigning Super Bowl champions arrive in town, and I like the odds of the group waiting to meet them. This Rams team isn't getting any younger with so few draft picks left in its coffers. It'll continue to add weapons, but the tape isn't changing. And I just think the Saints match up really well with what the Rams are going to try to do. Marshon Lattimore will put the clamps on Cooper Kupp, and Allen Robinson doesn't scare me. The Saints pass rush is at its best against pocket-bound quarterbacks, and Matt Stafford is very much that. The Rams will land their punches, but this game will come down to turnovers, and I expect L.A. to have more of them. The fans will be loud (it's the first time these teams have met in the dome since the no-call, FYI), and this is a game the Saints won't let get away.
- Prediction: Saints 28, Rams 24
- Saints record: 7-4
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WEEK 12: Saints at 49ers, 3:25 p.m.
- Series history: 49ers lead 49-27
- Last meeting: Saints 27, 49ers 13 (2020, Week 10)
- Notes: The Saints got on a bit of a run, but the yo-yo season continues here. This is a tough matchup to gauge because we just don't know who San Fran's quarterback will be by this point of the year. If I'm the Saints, I'm hoping for Trey Lance because he's going to be more likely to get flustered by the Saints' relentless pass rush. But I'm guessing it's Jimmy G, and I'm guessing Kyle Shanahan pushes the right buttons again to hand the Saints another frustrating loss in this series.
- Prediction: 49ers 27, Saints 23
- Saints record: 7-5
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WEEK 13: Saints at Bucs, 7:15 p.m., MNF
- Series history: Saints lead 39-22
- Last meeting: Saints 9, Bucs 0 (2021, Week 15)
- Notes: What is this? A rare instance where the NFL has done the Saints a favor? It's been a grueling 13 weeks, but they land what essentially amounts to a stolen day with a Monday Night Football matchup against the Bucs ahead of a late bye. It's a stolen day because a typical drawback of a Monday start is the ensuing short week. Not the case here. And while I projected the Bucs to get the better of the Saints in Week 2, this is where the familiar lockdown occurs at Raymond James Stadium, again on national TV. The secondary Brady took advantage of early in the season is now available and cohesive. And the Saints can see the finish line for a week off, using that adrenaline to send Tom Brady back to sideline technology destruction with a win that sets up a mad dash for the NFC South title over the season's final weeks.
- Prediction: Saints 28, Bucs 12
- Saints record: 8-5
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WEEK 14: BYE
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WEEK 15: Falcons at Saints, time TBD
- Series history: Falcons lead 54-52
- Last meeting: Saints 30, Falcons 20 (2021, Week 18
- Notes: Did y'all get your rest? Because the homestretch of the season is an attractive one for a Saints team that's had to deal with tough travel and tough matchups. Now it lightens. Marcus Mariota will have lost the starting job by this point, and Desmond Ridder gets his first taste of what life in the Superdome is like. He won't enjoy it.
- Prediction: Saints 27, Falcons 13
- Saints record: 9-5
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WEEK 16: Saints at Browns, noon (Christmas Eve)
- Series history: Browns lead 13-5
- Last meeting: Saints 21, Browns 18 (2018, Week 2)
- Notes: Christmas Eve isn't technically a federal holiday, but it's close. Don't worry, that streak continues next week. This matchup will be interesting, does Deshaun Watson play? How effective will he be in his new system? I'm betting he does, and he gets the better of the team he opted not to join last offseason in a low-scoring game.
- Prediction: Browns 21, Saints 16
- Saints record: 9-6
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WEEK 17: Saints at Eagles, noon (New Year's Day)
- Series history: Eagles lead 19-5
- Last meeting: Eagles 40, Saints 29 (2021, Week 10)
- Notes: The turnaround in the Saints-Eagles series has been pretty stunning. After New Orleans put 48-7 shellacking in 2018 and then won again in the postseason, the Eagles have returned the favor each of the past two seasons. The Saints have failed to stop the run -- a rarity for this team -- and Jalen Hurts has run the defense ragged with options plays and elite mobility. But there was another common denominator in those games: The Saints were playing without their starting quarterback. That was the case in 2020 when Taysom Hill started in relief of Drew Brees, and it was the case again in 2021 when Trevor Siemian started in relief of Jameis Winston and with Hill missing the game with an injury of his own. Assuming that's not the case again this year, I think this is finally the time New Orleans gets its lanes filled and slows down that pesky ground game. This could also be a game that solidifies the Saints in the playoff picture heading into the final week of the season.
- Prediction: Saints 31, Eagles 21
- Saints record: 10-6
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WEEK 18: Panthers at Saints, time TBD
- Series history: Saints lead 29-26
- Last meeting: Saints 18, Panthers 10 (2021, Week 17)
- Notes: Going into this game at 10-6, it's unlikely the Saints have guaranteed themselves playoff positioning, but it's possible. If so, all bets could be off with key players resting. But it's far more likely the Saints still have something to play for, and the Panthers do not. In that scenario, there's a reasonable chance the nickname for this game becomes Golden Corral, because the Saints will feast on yet another rookie quarterback.
- Prediction: Saints 41, Panthers 12
- Saints record: 11-6
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FINAL THOUGHTS
Does 11-6 seem optimistic in the first year of the post-Sean Payton era? Probably. But I see no reason to think this team will suddenly take a step back, barring a similarly bizarre run of injuries to what was encountered last season.
Now, I'll say that if the Saints end up approaching the NFL record they set last year with 58 starters and have to play the second half of the season without their quarterback again, double-digit wins is probably even more unlikely than it was with Payton at the helm. But I'm betting things even out a bit, and with a new strength staff in town with the goal of keeping things on the healthier side, that feels like a safe bet.
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But whenever a team plays elite defense week in, week out, it's fair to feel confident. Jameis Winston proved during his 7-game run as the starter last year that he can do what the Saints need him to, particularly in the turnover avoidance department, and with the addition of Chris Olave and return of Michael Thomas, there's reason to think the offense should be far more complementary than it was a year ago. That season ended at 9-8 and just outside the playoff field. The pass rush could also be one of the more feared groups in the NFL, considering it played a majority of last season without first-round pick Payton Turner, who looked excellent in limited action.
The biggest wild card will be Alvin Kamara, who could potentially face suspension stemming from an arrest during a trip to the Pro Bowl last postseason. But until we know for sure how and when that shoe will drop, I'm not factoring it in here.
In the end, I see this season going very similarly to 2021 (and my projection was 11-6 a year ago, as well) but without the freak results that kept the Saints on the wrong side of the playoff bubble. With Jameis throughout, it's likely the Saints win at least one of those five games during the season-defining losing streak, if not more. Without COVID it's likely the Saints take care of business at home against the Dolphins. That alone would've gotten you to 11 wins and in the playoff field. That's what I'm banking on this year.
Call me an optimist, but until this group proves me wrong I'll continue to be that way. And with the competition level in the NFC anything but intimidating, it's a comfortable thing to be.