I’m not talking about the Simon and Garfunkel song The Sound of Silence with the iconic line, “hello darkness, my old friend.” It’s actually hello darkness, we have company in the Tampa Bay Bucs, as my broadcast partner Deuce McAllister tweeted in late October.
That week, Tampa Bay lost to Baltimore and the Saints beat Las Vegas. Both teams were 3-5. No team in the whole NFC South was above .500. It’s the same way on Dec. 5.
THE GAME | Saints (4-8) at Bucs (5-6)
- When: 7:15 p.m., Monday, Dec. 5
- Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
- Betting: Bucs -3.5
- TV: ESPN
- Listen: WWL AM-870; FM-105.3 & the Audacy app
Let’s be clear before another word is written: This is not a ‘let’s feel bad for Tampa’ column. I am clearly aware of my audience, and I could never feel bad for any divisional foe. This is a story about expectations and mojo.
The Saints had and still have high expectations for this season, however realistic those may be.
This summer and out of training camp they couldn’t foresee being 4-8 heading into Week 13 anymore than Tampa could have predicted their woeful, but NFC South-leading record of 5-6.
But back in the spring when Tampa finally got Tom Brady back into the fold and signed Tom’s favorite center Ryan Jensen and put a franchise tag on wide receiver Chris Godwin, the Bucs were thinking of only one thing: another Super Bowl. The Saints’ expectations were similar, but different. A new coach, a QB1 with injury questions, new coaches in new positions, it was just different.
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Before I get to the mojo aspect, let’s look at some numbers. This is where, if you took the names of the teams away, you would have a hard time knowing who I was talking about. I’ll begin with Tampa, because this stat, to me, stands out for them. That number is 18.2, which is Tampa’s average points per game. The Bucs have had some injuries, yes, who hasn’t? It’s still Brady, Godwin, Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Leonard Fournette, Russell Gage and more. In their five wins the Buc’s have not scored more than 21 points. They beat the Saints in Week 2, 20-10, when the score was 3-3 in the fourth quarter. They have only scored more than 30 points once and that was in a losing effort against Kansas City. If I just showed you 18.2 points a game and no wins with more than 21 points scored, few would guess I was talking about Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
On the other side, you know where I’m going for the Saints: turnovers. The numbers are so off the charts that it’s hard to put them into perspective. I’ve been here before, so I won’t spend a ton of time on this. Their turnover differential is minus-14, meaning they have given the ball away 14 more times than they have taken it away. They have only played 12 games and somehow won the turnover battle in three for them, so this carcass is the result of just nine games. Now, a little perspective: The next closest team (heading into week 13) is the Indianapolis Colts with a turnover margin of minus-10. The next-closes turnover margin is minus-7. So, the 30th-ranked team in the NFL for turnover margin has a 7-TO cushion in this category. SEVEN. That would be a lot if we were looking at the end of the 17-week season, but we are not even close to that. If that can get better, and it must for there to be salvation in this area. Unfortunately, the play we’ve seen on the field is more of an indicator that it’ll continue to get worse.
I mean, this oblong piece of cowhide has two ends and it’s time for it to bounce near the black and gold not away from us.
Turnovers come in bunches, and that was the case for Tampa early in the season. Nine of their 11 takeaways came in the first 4 weeks of the season and six of their nine giveaways also came in the first 4 games.
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From a giveaway standpoint, the Saints have been more consistent week-to-week, and that’s not good when coupled with few takeaways.
I thought the other day, and this should give you an indication of just where my feeble mind drifts sometimes, that maybe the Saints used too much mojo in Week 1 beating the Falcons. Yes, it’s crazy, but sometimes we must be reminded of what happened that Sunday back in early September. It was a game, some would say, the Saints had no business winning. Others would say it’s just Atlanta finding a new and interesting way to lose. (Which, by the way, they did to Pittsburgh at home just as the plane’s wheels lifted and I lost the signal this past. Still a great way to begin any flight). The Saints had no offense – none – until the 4th quarter when Jameis Winston hit bombs to Jarvis Landry and two touchdowns to Michael Thomas. Wow, that sentence feels old.
But that’s not what I’m talking about, it’s how the Saints were even in position to make those plays. With the score 23-10 Atlanta, the Falcons faced a 3rd and 5 at the New Orleans 14-yard line. Marcus Mariota kept it and got the first down, but Marcus Maye forced a fumble. The Saints got the ball.
If the Falcons score a TD there, the lead would’ve ballooned to 20 (30-10) heading into the 4th quarter. But the huge play, a turnover, kept the Saints alive. And when they finally took the lead, connecting on big play after big play, they would need another huge play and Payton Turner provided it, blocking the 63-yard field goal attempt that would’ve won it for Atlanta.
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A great many things needed to bounce the Saints way in that 4th quarter in Atlanta, and just about all of them did. Just not much since.
Maybe the Saints didn’t use all of their mojo in Atlanta to start the season, but they couldn’t find a way to duplicate it or fill up the mojo tank, so here we sit.
Now the question is: Can they find it in Tampa tonight, heading (finally) into the bye week? If so, they’ll have a happy week off, then a potentially massive rematch with the Dirty Birds in Caesars Superdome. Here’s hoping that game means something. It’ll take a victory over the Bucs for me to be able to say that.