The Saints controlled their own destiny for all of 24 hours, but COVID wiped that away along with 20 players during a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins.
While a win would've set the Saints up for a guaranteed route with wins over the final two games, the road to the postseason is far from lost. New Orleans will just need a bit of help to get there.
The Saints are currently one game behind both the 49ers and Eagles, and tied with the Vikings with two games remaining.
What keeps the Saints alive for the time being is that the loss to the Dolphins, while costly, doesn't impact their NFC record, which will be a key element in the tiebreaker scenarios listed below. The Saints are currently 5-5 against the NFC, with two such matchups remaining. The Eagles are the only team with four or fewer losses in-conference. The Saints would lose any straight-up tiebreaker with the Eagles, and would need a three-team scenario to slot ahead. Since the Saints need a Philadelphia loss to get even anyway, it's likely going to come down to the Saints getting to 7-5 vs the NFC and hoping two other teams land there as well.
Here's how the standings break down heading into Week 17:
One thing to keep in mind, while the Falcons slot ahead ahead of the Saints in the NFC South standings currently, any loss in the final two games will likely mean New Orleans' playoff hopes are over. With that in mind, the scenarios broken down below will only be the ones with the Saints winning their final two games, the second of which comes against the Falcons. Should the Saints win that matchup, Atlanta would be eliminated.
Before breaking things down, here's the order of tiebreakers the NFL uses to set its playoff bracket:
- 1. Eliminate all but the highest seeded team from each division within the tiebreaker itself
- 2. Head-to-head record (in a multi-team tiebreaker all teams would have had to play each other, otherwise move on)
- 3. Winning percentage vs conference opponents
- 4. Winning percentage in common games (minimum of four)
- 5. Strength of victory (combined winning percentage of defeated opponents)
We'll stop there, because tiebreakers very rarely get beyond that point. It's also worth noting that if one team gets eliminated in any of the first three steps, the tiebreakers revert back to the top for the final two teams. For a full breakdown of the tiebreakers, click here.
First off, here are the remaining opponents and NFC records for the four teams we'll be looking at the rest of the way:
- Saints (7-8 overall, 5-5 NFC): vs Panthers; at Falcons
- 49ers (8-7 overall, 6-5 NFC): vs Texans; at Rams
- Eagles (8-7 overall, 6-4 NFC): at Washington; vs Cowboys
- Vikings (7-8 overall, 5-5 NFC): at Packers; vs Bears
So what exactly is the Saints' path to the playoffs? We'll start with the winning combinations (and again, we're only breaking down those with the Saints finishing 9-8). What's listed below aren't all the ways it could play out, but, they represent the most likely outcomes.
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THE SCENARIOS
HOW THE SAINTS CAN MAKE PLAYOFFS
IF...
- Saints go 2-0
- 49ers go 2-0
- Eagles go 1-1
- Vikings go 2-0
Final standings
- 6. 49ers, 10-7
- 7. Saints, 9-8 (strength of victory)
- 8. Eagles or Vikings, 9-8 (common games or SOV)
- 9. Eagles or Vikings, 9-8 (common games or SOV)
NOTES: This is one of the more unlikely routes, because it would rely on the Vikings beating the Packers in Week 16. Still, any scenario that creates a three-way tie in the NFC and a tie in conference record (as this does) will go to strength of victory. The Saints will win that tiebreaker against any team involved.
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IF...
- Saints go 2-0
- 49ers go 1-1
- Eagles go 2-0
- Vikings go 1-1
Final standings
- 6. Eagles, 10-7
- 7. Saints, 9-8 (common games)
- 8. 49ers, 9-8
- 9. Vikings, 8-9
NOTES: This is probably the most likely scenario for the Saints to get in. The Saints stack up favorably against the 49ers in any head-to-head tiebreaker due to an edge in common games, which would be secured with a Week 18 victory over the Falcons.
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IF...
- Saints go 2-0
- 49ers go 1-1
- Eagles go 1-1
- Vikings go 1-1
Final standings:
- 6. Eagles, 9-8 (H2H vs Saints)
- 7. Saints, 9-8
- 8. 49ers, 9-8 (worst NFC record)
- 9. Vikings, 8-9
NOTES: This is another reasonably likely scenario, but it would hinge on the 49ers falling to the Rams in Week 18, which would become more likely if L.A. still has something to play for at that point. The 49ers would be eliminated due to a 6-6 NFC record, with the Saints and Eagles finishing at 7-5. The Eagles would then slot ahead of the saints due to Philadelphia's head-to-head win.
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IF...
- Saints go 2-0
- 49ers go 1-1
- Eagles go 1-1
- Vikings go 2-0
Final standings:
- 6. Saints, 9-8 (strength of victory)
- 7. Vikings, 9-8 (common games or strength of victory)
- 8. Eagles, 9-8 (common games or strength of victory)
- 9. 49ers, 9-8 (worst NFC record)
NOTES: This would be the best-case scenario for the Saints, because it would land them in the 6 seed. All four teams finish 9-8, with the 49ers eliminated first due to a worst conference record than the other three. All of the Eagles, Saints and Vikings would finish at 7-5 in the NFC, and the Saints would slot ahead due to strength of victory. The 7/8 slot would come down to where the Eagles loss occurs, but whether it's strength of victory or common games, the Vikings would come out ahead and the Eagles would miss out.
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HOW SAINTS CAN MISS PLAYOFFS
IF...
- Saints go 2-0
- 49ers go 2-0
- Eagles go 1-1
- Vikings go 1-1
Final standings:
- 6. 49ers, 10-7
- 7. Eagles, 9-8 (H2H over Saints)
- 8. Saints, 9-8
- 9. Vikings, 8-9
NOTES: This would be the most painful scenario, because it'd mean the Saints won out, got losses from both the Eagles and Vikings and still managed to miss because the 49ers pulled out a win over the Rams on the final day of the regular season. San Francisco would land alone at No. 6, and the Saints would lose the H2H tiebreaker for the final spot. Of all the "Saints go 2-0 and still miss out" scenarios, this feels like the most likely way for it to happen.
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IF...
- Saints go 2-0
- 49ers go 2-0
- Eagles go 2-0
- Vikings finish is irrelevant
Final standings:
6. 49ers, 10-7 (H2H over Eagles)
7. Eagles, 10-7
8/9. Saints or Vikings, 9-8
NOTES: Nothing complicated here. The Saints and Vikings would both finish a game behind, and the standings would remain unchanged from where it sits today. The 49ers would slot ahead of the Eagles, and the Saints/Vikings tiebreakers are irrelevant.
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IF...
- Saints go 2-0
- 49ers go 1-1
- Eagles go 2-0
- Vikings go 2-0
Final standings:
- 6. Eagles, 10-7
- 7. Vikings, 9-8 (common games over Saints)
- 8. Saints, 9-8
- 9. 49ers, 9-8 (worst NFC record)
NOTES: This is where it gets tricky with Minnesota involved. While the Vikings will help the Saints if they create a three-way tie with the Eagles, that'd be the opposite if they create a three-way tie with the 49ers. In that scenario, the Eagles would be clear in the No. 6 slot, and the 49ers would be eliminated with the worst NFC record between the three teams. For the Vikings to finish 2-0 they'd have to beat the Packers, which would secure the common games tiebreaker over the Saints in a head-to-head scenario.
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WHO SHOULD THE SAINTS ROOT FOR?
As you've probably figured out based on the scenarios above, it's not as simple as "the Saints should root for Team A because that would eliminate Team B." With four teams involved and no head-to-head matchups remaining between any of them, the scenarios could swing wildly based on different results.
For example: The Saints only want the Vikings to beat the Packers if the 49ers keep winning and the Eagles lose. But should that be flipped with the Eagles winning and the 49ers losing, two Vikings wins would be what keeps the Saints out.
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The biggest thing the Saints should be rooting for is that the Week 18 opponents have something to play for. That group includes the Rams (vs 49ers), the Cowboys (at Eagles) and the Bears (at Vikings). Obviously the Bears have been eliminated from postseason contention, but the matchup between the Cowboys and Cardinals in Week 17 is particularly interesting.
If the Cardinals lose, that'd leave the Rams two games ahead in the NFC West and in a scenario where they'd likely rest players. If the Cowboys lose, it'll depend on the other results from the NFC division leaders. If the Packers beat the Vikings, the Cowboys would be eliminated from contention for the top seed and bye, and possibly prompt the Cowboys to rest players.
There are a few ways it could play out, and the Vikings-Packers result will be a major factor. Should the Vikings win, it keeps the Cowboys within a game of the bye and ensures they'll keep their foot on the pedal through the finish, but it sets the Saints up on the wrong end of a potential common games tiebreaker with Minnesota. Should the Packers win, it essentially eliminates the Vikings, while also eliminating the three-way tiebreaker scenario with the Eagles, Saints and Vikings that would benefit New Orleans.
Keeping in mind that it's highly unlikely the 49ers fall to the Texans and will likely head into Week 18 at 9-7, I'd say the ideal Week 17 results are:
- Saints defeat Panthers
- Cardinals defeat Cowboys
- Ravens defeat Rams
- Washington defeats Eagles
- Packers defeat Vikings
If all those things happened, the Saints would go into the final week of the season a game behind the 49ers, just behind the Eagles for the No. 7 slot, and a game ahead of the Vikings. That's ideal because it would leave the Saints needing just a 49ers loss to the Rams for a route into the postseason, and the Rams would enter needing a win to secure the division title.
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