The New Orleans Saints had a golden opportunity to get in the win column against a banged-up 49ers squad in Week 2, but it was San Fran who got the last laugh.
Spencer Rattler had a career day with three touchdown passes and no interceptions, but Mac Jones balled out on the other side and the Saints couldn't overcome another performance littered with issues -- particularly early in the game.
There will be positives to build on, but an 0-2 start means the Saints hit the road for the first time this week needing a major upset to get things moving in the right direction.
With all that in mind, here are my stock up and stock down players from the 26-21 Saints loss to the 49ers.
━━
STOCK DOWN
1. Third down (and long) defense
Trust me, I didn't just copy and paste my notes on this from last week -- though I was tempted. It's hard to put the same thing in stock down two weeks in a row, but I sure was hoping Week 1 was a mirage.
NOPE.
For the second consecutive game the Saints defense effectively bottled up the run and forced a host of third and long situations. Unfortunately, also for the second consecutive week, they failed in those situations more often than they succeeded.
"We put ourselves into advantageous positions the way we play," safety Justin Reid told me after the game. "These last two weeks, playing first and second down we’ve been phenomenal defensively, like, best in the league at it, but third down we’re falling short right now and we’ve got to find some answers to that and figure out a way to get some more punts on the field, give our offense a short field.”
That sums it up as well as I could. In Week 1 the Saints forced 3rd and 7 or longer nine times and failed to end a drive in five of those instances. This week they did it eight times, and failed to get off the field on five of them -- two surrendered by penalty.
That means the Saints' success rate when forcing 3rd and 7 is 41% (7-17). I don't even need to look up the success rate for defenses across the league in those situations, it's a lot higher. If the Saints had that number at 60% or above, they're at least 1-1 if not 2-0. That's the margin in the NFL.
One major culprit this week was a lack of pressure on Mac Jones in a lot of those situations, and I think that's a two-fold issue. For one thing we didn't see the Saints defense get very aggressive, and I'd wager that was in part to keep a lid on things as the team worked in a rookie safety in Jonas Sanker for the first time. The other element is the continued absence of Chase Young, who gets paid to feast in those obvious passing situations. If he was on the field the last two weeks, maybe it's a different story.
Hopefully Young can get back to practice this week and the Saints can find out sooner rather than later, because you simply can't win football games if you can't get off the field consistently in those situations.
━━
2. Mistake, mistake, mistake
There were flash moments in this game, like when Rashid Shaheed went over the top on the first drive to set up a scoring situation. But those moments were cut with almost just as many dud moments, like when Spencer Rattler missed Chris Olave on a wide open throw to the end zone a short while later, or when a pass seemed to catch Olave by surprise a few plays later.
The Saints' sloppiness in critical moments was only made more glaring by how clean the 49ers played in this game, at least in the first half as San Fran built its lead and kept the Saints at arm's length the rest of the way.
Juwan Johnson delivered with a spectacular touchdown grab, but that came after a pair of ugly drops. There were penalties to extend drives. There were slips and stumbles. The first quarter was particularly ugly. The Saints weren't sharp.
Good moments cut with too much bad. That was the theme. Nowhere was that more clear than at the tail end of the first half after the Saints' successfully drove down the field for a touchdown to cut the margin to 9-7. There was a little over a minute left and the 49ers got the ball after halftime. A shutdown series would've given the Saints the positive vibes heading into the locker room. That's not even close to what happened.
Here's how that drive played out, starting from the 49ers 23 with 1:10 to go:
- Jones short left to Jauan Jennings, +13
- Jones incomplete (Pearsall)
- Jones short right to McCaffrey, +4
- Jones deep left to Jennings, +29
- Jones short right to Kendrick Bourne, +8
- Jones short left to Jake Tonges, +11
- Jones spike at NO 12 ... 17 seconds remaining
- Jones short right to McCaffrey, +5
- 49ers final timeout ... 11 seconds at NO 7
- Jones short left to McCaffrey, +7TD
Too easy, in a critical moment. There are teams that understand how to win and play winning football consistently, and then there are teams that know how to put themselves in winning positions but don't deliver. The Saints are the latter right now.
━━
3. Specialists
Blarg. I don't know what else to say. Blake Grupe was as consistent as any kicker I've ever watched in training camp. That wasn't a mirage. He missed one kick all of camp.
But wouldn't you know it, the games start and not only did that perfect run end, he's a 50% kicker with both misses from 40 and in. It was Blake's only FG attempt in the game, but he was clean on all three PATs.
This miss in particular was brutal because it came after a failed touchdown opportunity. No worries, an opening drive for points will be just fi... blarg. It was also a strange miss. Grupe's kicks are almost always laser straight, even on misses. The miss in the opener didn't slice or hook, it just started too far left and stayed there. This one started down the middle and quickly sliced away to the right, making me wonder whether something went wrong with the operation. Regardless, a miss is a miss. The end of this game would've felt a lot different if the Saints got the ball only needing a field goal to win. We'll never know what might've happened in that circumstance. He also left the opening kickoff short of the landing zone. Come on, man.
Related
The other end of that equation is Grupe's shaky start might've lost some confidence in kick decisions. The Saints could've opted to go for a 59-yarder, a kick well within Grupe's range in the first half, but instead they opted to punt from the 41-yard line. That brings me to the punting, which I also wasn't a big fan of.
Kai Kroeger gained some good will from me in an impressive opener, but my patience wears thin when I see 21-yard net kicks. That's what happened when he boomed the ball five yards into the end zone on that kick I was just referencing. That just can't happen from that part of the field and the 49ers took advantage with a touchdown drive.
Here's how all his kicks from the game went:
- From SF 41: to end zone (touchback), 21 net
- From NO 26: 39 yards to SF 35 (no return), 39 yard net
- From NO 30: 52 yards to SF 18 (1-yard return), 51 yard net
- From NO 10: 39 yards to NO 49 (no return), 39 yard net
One in four just isn't getting it done for me. I need consistency from both of those guys.
A few more
The 49ers knew all about Isaac Yiadom, who played with San Francisco last year, and they targeted him early and often. I appreciated how he was able to hang in and he did make some nice plays later in the game, but he's not making enough plays for me to not think it's getting close to the point where the Saints need to steer into the skid and get rookie Quincy Riley more reps. It's a little selfish, because playing Yiadom could also cost a 4th round comp pick based on his snap share, but I also don't know exactly how much he's elevating things right now. ... The Superdome atmosphere. Look, I'm not going to begrudge anyone selling their tickets. I fully understand why it happens. But man, that felt like a 49ers home game at points, and that's really disappointing. It's on the Saints to win games at home to bring the atmosphere back, but it's not much of an advantage right now. ... I went into the game saying the plan against CMC had to be bottling up the middle and bracketing him out of the backfield. Well, that didn't work. I have to look at the film to see how the 49ers schemed him open, but it sure is frustrating to watch a team with one legit weapon beat you repeatedly with that one player.
━━
STOCK UP
1. Rattler is doing the thing
There are a lot of ways the first two weeks could've gone for the Saints, but my predictions definitely didn't include the quarterback position being among the most stable for the Saints. But that's what has happened.
I don't want to overstate how effective or dynamic Spencer Rattler has been leading this offense, but suffice it to say: He's played well enough for the team to win. A lot of the people around him who haven't followed suit.
In the opener the QB needed to play under control. Avoid negative plays. Let the offense work for him, as his coaches have said repeatedly. Rattler did that despite being asked to drop back 47 times. He didn't turn the ball over and was only sacked once. The biggest criticism? Red zone efficiency.
In this game he went out and completed 74% of his passes, three of which were TD throws in, you guessed it, red zone situations. The Saints were 3-of-3 on the day in that category. The Saints offense put up 21, and that should've been 24 as far as Rattler is concerned -- nothing he can do to straighten out a 40-yard kick. In a game against a Mac Jones-led 49ers offense that should've been enough. It wasn't.
There were some execution issues, most notably a miss to Olave on the opening drive for what should have been a touchdown. But every QB has misses. What I've been impressed with is how under control he's played in basically every situation. He also used his legs in critical situations, twice to extend drives that ended in touchdowns. He just found a way more often than not.
The starting record of 0-8 is the ultimate fly in the ointment, but as long as Spencer is playing like he did the first two weeks there won't be a serious conversation about a change. The difficulty level will ratchet up big time over the next two weeks. Let's see what we're saying when the Saints get back to the Superdome in Week 5.
Banks on it
I haven't gone back through the film yet, but it's hard to come away from the first two weeks and be anything but glowing about the rookie Kelvin Banks Jr.'s performance. There were a few times he got walked back and it wasn't perfect, but to get through two weeks and not be blaming the rookie LT as a major reason why is a win in and of itself.
The biggest area for growth is in run blocking, but I'm OK with that coming second. Keeping the QB alive has to be Priority 1 on the edges.
Rattler was sacked three times in this game, the final of which was on the game-sealing sack. That pressure came off the right side. There was also pressure that seemed to get through the backs in place to pick it up. Fuaga is still dealing with a knee issue that seemed to become more problematic as the game went on. I'm not worried about him as a player and thought he played well throughout. I'm more worried about what that injury could turn into.
Still when things are settled on the left side, everything just seems easier.
Related
“He’s a dawg. For a rookie to go head to head with [Nick] Bosa, one of, if not the best edge rusher in the league, it’s impressive," Rattler said. "I mean, that’s a handful to deal with. I thought we had a good plan protection-wise. They’re going to make some plays. They’ve got some great players on that defense, it’s a great scheme, well coached as well, but Kelvin is a heck of a player and I wouldn’t want another guy out there."
That sums it up. Again, my prediction for this team was 4-13 not because I didn't see talent, but because I didn't think this group was going to find the winning plays enough of the time. That's been exactly the case through three weeks. That doesn't mean you can't come away with positivity, but I need that positivity to be featured by young players who will keep getting better. I think we've seen that more often than not this season.
━━
TD bodies
One of the things I noted in my preview column was that I wanted to see the Saints take advantage of Juwan Johnson and Devaughn Vele in the red zone. That's simply what they're built for.
It was anything but a high-production day for Vele (1 catch, 3 yards, TD), but he did exactly what he was brought here to do when he ran a quick slant, boxed out the smaller defender and hauled in a key touchdown down by the goal line.
Johnson had his own red zone highlight when he high-pointed a fade for a spectacular grab late in the first half. We can talk all we want about being efficient in that part of the field, but you need your weapons to deliver and that's what we got in this game.
Vele's role in the offense should continue to expand as we go forward, but it's good to see he's already making an impact.
Lagniappe
The Saints got Alvin Kamara the ball in this game and he (mostly) delivered with 120 total yards on 27 touches. I did think there was a bit more meat on the bone in this game and he had the key fumble on a play where he just needed to get down. Still, I liked the way the Saints utilized him in this game and that should bode well going forward. ... Chris Rumph got through for a sack fumble that helped the Saints seize momentum early in the third quarter. What I appreciated was that he was blocked to the ground but kept battling and made the play anyway. He'll be a nice depth piece even after Chase Young gets back rolling. ... Other than a few penalties I felt like Kool-Aid McKinstry had a strong bounce-back performance. The coverage issues seemed to come over the middle of the field more than anything else. ... The Saints run defense continued to be stout, holding Christian McCaffrey to 55 yards on his 13 carries, and the 49ers overall to 77 yards on 26 carries (3.3 yards per carry). If the Saints can get their third and long defense sorted out, that's a good quality to have. ... Things started ugly, but the Saints are headed in the right direction on the penalty front. They were penalized 7 times for 45 yards, but only two of those came after halftime and none of them were procedural. ... I'm still waiting for a Rashid Shaheed blowup game, but he was effective in this one and caught a key touchdown. The shot plays will come.