TRENTON, N.J. (1010 WINS) -- New Jersey's recent surge in COVID-19 cases could hit peaks in both mid-May and mid-June under a "high case model" the state released Wednesday.
At a news briefing Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Phil Murphy unveiled pandemic prediction models created by the New Jersey Department of Health.
The department's "moderate case model," Murphy said, takes into account "expected increases in vaccinations" that are 95 percent effective against all COVID-19 variants, while assuming hospitalizations would increase as they did "after past religious holidays and expansions of indoor activities."
Under that model, the state's latest wave of COVID-19 cases would reach a "daily high" of 5,445 new cases — as well as a high in hospitalizations — on April 18, the governor said.
The number of daily cases would only drop below 3,000 in mid-June, he said.
The department's "high case model," meanwhile, assumes that vaccinations will continue "at their current pace," but only be 65% effective, Murphy said. It also assumes New Jerseyans will "lower their guard with the warmer weather," he said.
Under the second model, New Jersey would hit a high of more than 8,000 new daily cases twice: once in mid-May and again in mid-June.
"Basically, we would be back to where we were in December and January," Murphy explained.
The governor did note that the predictions are "models, not certainties."
"We can change models through our behavior," he said. "I know you're all up to the task. We can push through our fatigue and refocus."
New Jersey reported 4,586 new positive COVID-19 test results on Wednesday, as well as 44 new COVID-19-related fatalities.
As of Tuesday night, 2,363 New Jerseyans were hospitalized with the virus, 458 of whom were in intensive care and 236 of whom were on ventilators.
