TRENTON, N.J. (1010 WINS) -- The number of New Jerseyans hospitalized with COVID-19 could surpass the state's spring peak by mid-January if health officials' "worst-case scenario" projection proves accurate, Gov. Phil Murphy said Wednesday.
New Jersey's Department of Health and Office of Innovation both created their own "predictive models" to help residents "visualize how this pandemic may play out over the coming months," Murphy said at a news briefing Wednesday afternoon.
If New Jersey sees no change in compliance with respect to social distancing, avoiding holiday gatherings and wearing masks, COVID-19 hospitalizations could spike to 8,747 by Jan. 13, the health department's model predicts. The number of new cases, meanwhile could surge to 12,595 by Jan. 14.
That hospitalization figure would top the Garden State's first-wave peak on April 14, when 8,270 New Jerseyans were hospitalized with the virus, Murphy noted.
And while the Department of Innovation's model provides a slower-burning estimate — 9,932 new COVID-19 cases by Feb. 1 and a peak of 8,689 hospitalizations by Feb. 5 — both agencies' models indicate that the state is "in for weeks of significantly increasing cases" if nothing changes, the governor said.
"The only solace, at least [that] I can find… in this worst-case scenario, is that both models would not see us reach the realized peak in ICU or ventilator counts, though we shouldn't take much solace in that," he said.
The two agencies also released "moderate-case scenarios" that estimate how the state's trend lines will look if New Jerseyans make an increased effort to socially distance, wear masks and "make smart decisions" throughout the holidays, Murphy said.
"This path would keep our hospital metrics within the safety zone," he said. "The numbers would still be very big, but wouldn't overwhelm our health care system capacity."
New Jersey reported 4,665 new positive COVID-19 test results on Wednesday, pushing its statewide total to 381,486, Murphy said at his briefing.
As of Tuesday night, 3,533 people in the state were hospitalized with confirmed or probable COVID-19 cases, 630 of whom were in intensive care and 412 of whom were on ventilators.
The state also reported 91 new COVID-19 related fatalities, bringing its death toll to 15,674.
Despite the continued surge, Murphy expressed confidence in the state's ability to flatten its curve and avoid both "worst-case" scenarios.
"I know we can do this, we know we can do this, because the numbers in the spring did not reach the dire levels we feared from our initial models, and folks, we did that together and we can do this yet again together," he said.
"The end of this pandemic is within reach," he added. "[But] we have to reach out and grab it."
